Rockets Strength of Schedule 1st vs. 2nd Half of Season

Predicting each game is very unreliable. Aggregating probabilities of a larger number of games is a better way for projection.

For example, if you have 10 games that each have 75% chance of winning. Looking at each game, you would predict them to win every one. But the true probability is that they would win only 7 or 8 of them.

 

If everybody truly believed this, social science as a subject would be dead.

 

Not sure I like the graph. Mainly because it's hard to quantify the way presented. Yes, I see the upward trend in opponent record, but I can't really see how much. A simple SOS going by opponent's average winning% probably accomplish the same task. Not to mention a 5yr old clutchfans member may actually understand it.

Personally, I'd be happy with a .500ish 17-16 record the rest of the way. That would be 36-30. Or extrapolate to 45 wins for a normal season. I think that would bode well enough for next season if the offseason is done well.

 

Nice graph JC Denton...

 

If we were only to loose against the really good teams ( CHI,LA,LAC,MIA,BOS,DAL,OKC) then our record would be 40 - 26, of course we won't win all of the games against other teams but then again we won't loose against all the good teams either. Therefor i think our record is relatively close to 40-26. My prediction 36-30

 

the good thing is that those teams that we are competing against, denver and portland..their schedules also get tough.

 

Yes you are right.....obviously when you predict wins and losses you have a certain margin for error that you throw in at the end. I don't feel like going through all the games but I get the sense that i can make a fairly accurate prediction with a margin for error range around 2. So how is that any less accurate than ur way ?

 

Good work in here.

As presently constructed, I say we go .500 over the rest of the season. True, it's a tough schedule, but we're no pushovers.

I think it's safe to say this team will look drastically different after the deadline though. And the perspective of our schedule along with it.

 

good work man but there alot of random variables u cant take into account , maybe the miami game before the last game miami locked up 1st in the nba and rest lebron , wade bosh suddenly that becomes an easily winnable game , maybe dallas rest dirk for one of the games suddenly easier , maybe lowry misses 2 games vs dallas @ home suddenly unwinable i think too many random variables arent taken into account just gotta take game by game , elton brand missing philly game tuesday just made it seem like an easy W where it couldve seemed like a 50/50 cuz we for some reason always get outplayed by philly

 

It really does seem that way.

We recently beat OKC and then Utah/Memphis on a b2b.

Should be interesting to see how things play out.

 

Carl Herrera is a true professional and I hope he retires on clutch fans

 

Good work Carl...but the big X factor is what happens at the trade deadline.

 

Carl is not trying to see the future, but trying to more or less make an educated guess base on the information available. Yes, luck is a factor. Always has been, always will be. But generally luck over a large sample size will minimize itself. 33 games is not a large sample by any means, but large enough that you can predict it with some accuracy.

If the Rockets are a .500 team, then with some luck going their way and some luck against them, they'll likely perform sub-.500 against a tough schedule over 33 games.

 

I think 36-38 is the amount of win's we will have. 6th seed it the playoffs (which probably means Dallas or SA in the first round).

 

No knock on the original post, great work and content. I just had a hard time understanding it that's all.

 

12+12+9+15+7+10= 65

You appear to have missed one.

 

I'm so smart my **** has a relativistic IQ