ESPN: Rockets at a Crossroads with Yao

crimsonghost · Nov 17, 2010

HOUSTON -- On the surface, there was an easy villain in Houston's 95-92 loss to Chicago on Tuesday night: instant replay. Two miraculous Kyle Lowry heaves at the end of the shot clock were overturned upon review, costing Houston five fourth-quarter points that one imagines would have come in awfully handy in a three-point defeat to the Bulls.

Yet that obscures the larger reality of Tuesday night's game and, by extension, Houston's season. The two shot clock violations via replay were part of an unacceptable four for the game, a shocking total for a team that plays at the league's third-fastest pace. For much of the game, it was simply too hard for the Yao Ming-less Rockets to generate shots.

And that, by extension, takes us to the conundrum regarding the Rockets. Although Houston is 3-7 this season after another close-but-no-cigar effort against a good team, the Rockets are 13th in Wednesday's Power Rankings and are likely to look better on paper once a bearish early-season schedule gives way to a stretch of patsies in December.

In other words, the Rockets aren't that bad. The problem is, they aren't that good, either. A team once built around a two-superstar core of Yao and Tracy McGrady has to contend with the fact that it no longer has an all-NBA-caliber centerpiece. This difference became glaringly obvious in the fourth quarter Wednesday, when Derrick Rose was constructing his own personal highlight film at one end while the Rockets labored to generate a shot -- any shot -- at the other.

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AP Photo/Nick Wass
A lingering leg injury has limited Yao Ming to just five games.
There will be nights when it comes a bit easier. Houston played without Yao, Aaron Brooks and Chase Budinger, so when the Bulls fronted Luis Scola and blitzed Kevin Martin in the fourth quarter, there were no capable scorers in reserve to take advantage.

But even with those three playing, Houston's big-picture situation is largely the same. Calling them a team of role players is perhaps too harsh, but calling this a team at a crossroads is not. Barring a spectacular resurgence from Yao, the Rockets are entering a new, superstar-free era, and coming to grips with everything that entails.

Thus, it's time to ponder the Yao-sized elephant in the Houston locker room: Is it time to change gears?

This isn't a decision to be taken lightly. For starters, Yao is the face of the franchise both locally and internationally, not to mention the source of considerable revenues that go way beyond ticket sales. Other veterans with expiring deals -- most notably Shane Battier -- have both a value to the organization and a connection to the community that goes well beyond their box score contributions.

Additionally, one can argue we're dismissing Yao's chances of a return to All-Star form far too early. Despite the 24-minute limit, his inability to play in back-to-backs and his wooden movement around the court early this season, he didn't get any shorter while he was away. Even now, after watching him for years, it's still shocking to see him walk into a locker room and see just how huge he is, even compared to other freakishly tall NBA players.

And he wasn't that bad, at least statistically. Yao's per-minute numbers aren't much different from his career norms. If he can play like an All-Star -- even if it's for 28 minutes -- Houston's course would change considerably.

But if not?

Well, at first glance such wrenching change seems drastic for a team that may very well reach the Western Conference playoffs. Houston lacks a superstar, but it does have two minor stars who could end up in the first All-Star games of their respective careers. Scola has been one of the league's most improved players at the ripe old age of 30, showcasing an improved counter move to his left to become one of the league's most potent back-to-the-basket players. Martin, meanwhile, remains one of the league's most efficient offensive weapons, averaging 28.0 points per 40 minutes with a glitzy 62.3 true shooting percentage.

But neither will be a factor in the All-Defense voting. That's where the limitations of the rest of the roster become an issue. Houston ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency, and its normal starting lineup of Brooks, Martin, Battier, Scola and Yao features only one player (Battier) with any defensive chops. Similar results come when mining the bench; the best defenders are limited offensive weapons like Lowry, Chuck Hayes and Jordan Hill. Basically, everybody who can score is a liability on D, and vice versa.

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Rocky Widner/NBAE/Getty Images
Would the Rockets give up reigning MIP Aaron Brooks in a trade?
This is a problem now, but Houston worked spectacularly well as a unit when Yao and McGrady provided an all-NBA foundation. The Rockets excelled at finding role players to work with that system and were among the league's most dramatic overachievers as a result, most notably in a spectacular 22-game winning streak two years ago. Even last season, minus both players, the remaining Rockets scratched and clawed their way to a winning record.

They can probably do it again. But the problem with life in the middle in the NBA is that it can be a tough place to escape, because it's virtually impossible to get any better. Houston will never get a high lottery pick this way, and if it keeps this group together it will never have enough dough to make a big splash in free agency. In the grueling Western Conference, furthermore, a win total in the low 40s might still banish Houston to the lottery.

As for trades, the Rockets have some large expiring contracts and a couple of intriguing young players … but really, who doesn't? That reality largely explains why the Rockets' mission to add another elite-level talent has fallen short. Every GM is trying to land Pau Gasol for a bag of peanuts, but there's a reason such trades are rare.

The best answer, but the most elusive, is to upgrade on the fly. That's what the Rockets have been trying for much of the past two years -- most notably in their pursuit of Chris Bosh -- and with some help from New York, it's perhaps a trick they could still pull off. Houston has the right to swap 2011 first-round draft choices with the 3-8 Knicks, and has a couple of other juicy morsels to put into a deal, most notably Brooks, who won the 2010 Most Improved Player award but is disgruntled by his lack of an extension.

It's too early to say definitely that a change in course is needed. The Rockets will argue for patience with Yao, and for at least a few more months that's the right way to play their hand. After they've seen Yao for half a season and trade-deadline urgency forces other teams to show their cards, the Rockets will have a much better idea of whether it's best to max out the current roster or opt for dramatic restructuring.

At the very least, however, we can say this: The latter option is a reasonable choice. If it wishes, Houston can get far enough under the cap to afford a max free agent and have two likely lottery picks. The more nights we see like Tuesday's, the more alluring that prospect becomes.
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There

REEKO_HTOWN · Nov 17, 2010

The Article title led me to believe Fran BlindBerry wrote this.

Invisible Fan · Nov 17, 2010

We need a Ben Wallace type enforcer who can clean mistakes while co-habitating with Scola in the paint.

/genie wish

RocketMania1991 · Nov 17, 2010

Pretty accurate article.

This team needs to get serious about getting past the Yao era and start focusing on the future.

robbie380 · Nov 17, 2010

Invisible Fan said:

We need a Ben Wallace type enforcer who can clean mistakes while co-habitating with Scola in the paint.

/genie wish
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we also need a 2 guard that can play defense and not disappear in the 4th

a starting pg that can play defense

a small forward that can shoot

and a center that can stay healthy

rockets934life · Nov 17, 2010

Depressing but pretty much accurate.

scola4 · Nov 17, 2010

crimsonghost said:

There
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Thank you

jim1961 · Nov 17, 2010

They can probably do it again. But the problem with life in the middle in the NBA is that it can be a tough place to escape, because it's virtually impossible to get any better. Houston will never get a high lottery pick this way, and if it keeps this group together it will never have enough dough to make a big splash in free agency. In the grueling Western Conference, furthermore, a win total in the low 40s might still banish Houston to the lottery.

I thought this the most telling of all.

Commodore · Nov 17, 2010

As for trades, the Rockets have some large expiring contracts and a couple of intriguing young players … but really, who doesn't?
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No this was the most telling.

All we do here is rave about our assets, but are they really that great?

nodstonothing · Nov 17, 2010

Commodore said:

No this was the most telling.

All we do here is rave about our assets, but are they really that great?
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This board tends to overrate every aspect of the Rockets. Our assets are not really that much better than what a lot of other teams have.

jim1961 · Nov 17, 2010

nodstonothing said:

This board tends to overrate every aspect of the Rockets. Our assets are not really that much better than what a lot of other teams have.
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What we do have is more of them. As came up in the Melo thread over and over, we have the luxury to do a 4-1 swap +picks and not decimate our bench. This to me is our real single advantage.

ima_drummer2k · Nov 17, 2010

Invisible Fan said:

We need a Ben Wallace type enforcer who can clean mistakes while co-habitating with Scola in the paint.
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Sadly for us (and the NBA in general), this type of player seems to be an endangered species. If not already extinct.

GATER · Nov 17, 2010

With absolutely no disrespect to John Hollinger, nearly all of those thoughts have been put forth by some of the better CFans posters.

GATER · Nov 17, 2010

jim1961 said:

What we do have is more of them. As came up in the Melo thread over and over, we have the luxury to do a 4-1 swap +picks and not decimate our bench. This to me is our real single advantage.
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1) Denver has a better overall team than Houston. They can't win with Melo.

2) The Nugz aren't taking 4 players. They don't have the roster spots and would have to pay for them if waived.

Carl Herrera · Nov 17, 2010

It's too early to say definitely that a change in course is needed. The Rockets will argue for patience with Yao, and for at least a few more months that's the right way to play their hand. After they've seen Yao for half a season and trade-deadline urgency forces other teams to show their cards, the Rockets will have a much better idea of whether it's best to max out the current roster or opt for dramatic restructuring.
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I agree with this part. Keep a close eye on the situation but no need to make the big decision until you have more data to make a determination.

Hball · Nov 17, 2010

Even last season, minus both players, the remaining Rockets scratched and clawed their way to a winning record.

They can probably do it again. But the problem with life in the middle in the NBA is that it can be a tough place to escape, because it's virtually impossible to get any better. Houston will never get a high lottery pick this way, and if it keeps this group together it will never have enough dough to make a big splash in free agency.

This is what worries me, were going no where yet we continue to try and win just enough to be mediocre, the pride is only hurting us.

Yetti · Nov 17, 2010

Carl Herrera said:

I agree with this part. Keep a close eye on the situation but no need to make the big decision until you have more data to make a determination.
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This quote is the only accurate one! We should pay attention to Carl Herrera!

king3a6 · Nov 17, 2010

nodstonothing said:

This board tends to overrate every aspect of the Rockets. Our assets are not really that much better than what a lot of other teams have.
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..........just like any other fans forum

seeingred · Nov 17, 2010

Commodore said:

No this was the most telling.

All we do here is rave about our assets, but are they really that great?
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if they were, we wouldn't be 3-7.

DaDakota · Nov 17, 2010

seeingred said:

if they were, we wouldn't be 3-7.
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You guys might be right, but don't you think that it is hard to judge a 3-7 team when 3 of your best 6 players are out with ankle injuries?

DD

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