2011 NBA draft facing talent drain

I posted this in the GARM earlier this week, but I figure this is a better place for it:

I think the lockout's effect on the 2011 NBA Draft has been way overblown.

As Daryl Morey himself has said on multiple occasions when asked about this issue, the "one-and-done'ers" (who will comprise the vast majority of the lottery picks) are not going to want to stay in school simply because of the POTENTIAL lockout.

Remember, the league and the players union will be negotiating right up until the July 1 expiration date of the current CBA--and beyond--to try to resolve their issues. The deadline for early entry draft candidates to commit to the draft is several months before then.

The top players are not interested in either (a) getting a college education in lieu of playing in the NBA right away (leaving is the smart business move for them, and they can always go back later and get their degrees if it means that much to them); or (b) trying to improve their draft stock by staying another year (remember, we're talking about the guys going in the lottery, so there's really not much else they could do to help their stock and could only hurt it from there).

Plus, if you don't think that these players want to sign with agents as soon as they can (so that they can get PAID IN ADVANCE), then you're crazy. Sure, I'm not naive enough to think that these guys aren't getting some cash under the table from college boosters; but they can actually get paid out in the open (and probably in larger amounts) by taking out loans from their agents. This is a common practice. How else do you think these guys can show up to the NBA Draft is fancy suits and jewelry?

Those top lottery picks will be just fine during a lockout. If they're selected in the lottery, then agents will have no qualms about loaning them copious amounts of money to get them through the lockout. Plus, to the extent that there's going to be ANY season in 2011-12, that's one more year of earning potential that they'd otherwise give up.

Sure, there may be some effect on the quality of late first rounders and some of the second round (due to some sophomores and juniors maybe staying). But that Knicks pick is likely going to be in the mid- to late lottery.

At that range, there will be some VERY attractive one-and-done'ers who will be available.

 

About the internationals, if they enter the draft, get picked, and there's a lockout, won't they just go back to playing with their old team? In fact, they can rubio their way back home for as long as they want even if there isn't a lockout.

Not sure what difference it makes to, say, Vesely, wheter he gets picked in 2011 or 2012 even in the event of a lockout.

 

But aren't the internationals basically in the same boat as the US draft propsects in this regard: they can declare and plan to play in the NBA if there if no lockout, and find another place to play if there is. Jan Vesely can stay with Partizan, but Harrison Barnes can decide to playin Europe (or China) in the event of a lockout, too.

They are really not going to be less desirable in 2011 compare to the Americans-- well, no more so than they are in 2012 or any other year since they can always decide to stay home.

 

Enes was coming to Kentucky.. not Kansas.. the compliance director from UK and Enes will be appealing the ruling of his complete ineligibility for college so he may play part of a season.

What I've seen of Irving I think he's slightly overrated.. Barnes is going to be a good little player, but he wasn't all that impressive in the McDonald's game (imho) but he will definitely be a one and done.

The thing is Bima if they think that they won't be paid for a year, why not stay in school an extra season. I think the 2012 draft will be really good if a lot of them see that it's likely there will be a lockout before the June draft dropout date.

 

If we somehow win the lottery I don't see how Barnes can help us by shooting jumpers since we have a lot of those guys already. What we really need is size and a guy that can rebound and control the paint Noah style. But looks like this draft doesn't have any guys like that. Enester is alright but he's more offense then defense. I think a game changer in this draft would be Kyrie Irving. With elite point guards in vouge these days it would be stupid to pass up on one. Yes we have Brooks and Lowry and look how it has turned out? The simple thing to do is sign and trade Brooks for a couple of draft picks and keep Lowry to show him the ropes. For some reason I can see Kyrie Irving being a Rocket.

 

I don't think the 2011 draft will be affected much because I just cannot see Stern and Hunter allowing things to get out of hand enough for a long lockout. There is too much for both sides to lose. The downside blows away the upside of being too hardball.

Plus, when two negotiating entities have powerful leaders that have a very good personal relationship, it bodes well.

As we get to the summer of 2011, I think conventional wisdom will correctly assume there won't be a long lockout.

 

Clutch, I've got to agree with CH on this one. If I'm a top international prospect, I DEFINITELY want to come out in 2011. They will have fewer sophomores and juniors to compete with for a spot in the lottery. Come 2012, that competition could be much stiffer. Also, as CH mentioned, they can just play with their overseas team if there's a lockout and not miss a beat.

Honestly, the odds that a lockout wipes out the ENTIRE 2011-12 season are fairly low. We are just all veterans of the 1998-99 season, which itself was an aberration in league history.

These top guys want to lock in the guaranteed money. Assuming that the rookie scale salary system is not completely overhauled or eliminated, once those guys are selected in the draft, they will be guaranteed a minimum of 80% of the rookie scale salary for their draft spot (and more likely will get the maximum 120% of the scale salary). If they go back to school and their draft stock suffers, then that rookie scale salary will go down, assuming they even get picked in the first round. Plus, it's one less year of earning potential.

 

I hope the Rockets draft on potential, preferably with an emphasis on athleticism and length.

 

Couldn't any of the top US talent also play in Europe if there is a lockout too?

What happens with the D-league will they still play? Couldn't guys sign DLeague contracts while they wait on their NBA deals?

DD

 

The thing with the international guys worrying about dropping to the bottom of the first round becomes a mute point if they get a guarantee from a lottery team to draft them if they come out.

 

I think its a lock for Donatas Montiejunas and Jan Vesely to come out this year...I don't think either of them are gonna pass up on being high lottery picks.

So far I've seen good comparison for both players, with Vesely being compared as a 6'11 version of Manu Ginobli and Montiejunas comparisons ranging from Bargnani to Pau Gasol...

Both are interesting prospect that could be possible game changers..

 

Yep, they'll play even if there's a lock out.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5820950

--RB

 

Barnes went 0 for 12 from the field in UNC's loss to Minnesota.

 

Perry Jones is a guy that can be a superstar, imo.


I don't care about position. We need a star, no matter where he plays. EVERYONE is tradeable. Draft for potential...

 

He has the Durant frame.

Solid scorer.

 

More on that here

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports....others-wont-be-headed-back-to-europe/related/