[Feigen] Xavier Henry and Paul George Rocket's other 2 picks

I have high hopes for Jordan Hill next season. Watching the NBA finals and how the lakers front court had a hard time stopping big baby, I couldn't help but remember the rockets celtics game where Jordan hill must've blocked big baby like five times.I hope he can improve this aspect of his game.

 

Bima, i agree about him jordan. The difference between the 25th and 31st is what, 200k? Jefferson and perkins were viewed as projects with problems. Perkins and jefferson with motivation and weight issues. both taken mid to late in the 1st rd. Perk is a hard nosed defensive center and jefferson is an all star caliber pivot. A team drafting whiteside or even some of these internationals are looking down the road 3 yrs. Orlando draften orton because he has upside and can replace gortat who can be traded for value. Again, patterson was the correct choice, but getting a high upside guy by buying a late pick wouldve been nice. I know some will bring up my thing about deandre jordan, but he wouldve been yao's best backup. In the same breath, they can still get him this summer if they choose. The notion that says hill,patterson,or hayes would be better served backing up yao doesnt sit well with me.

 

Sure, and the Rockets happen to have a vested interest in the RGV Vipers.

Maybe the Rockets were wary/jaded of the Joey Dorsey experiment and figured Whiteside is the same type of immature knucklehead. I agree with Bima that *maybe* buying a 2nd round pick for him would not that be big of a gamble, but I'm not clamoring for Whiteside after reading the reports on him, since that would be the Dorsey experiment all over again.

 

v.3, no argument from me except dorsey was 25 and whiteside is 19 or 20. I'm assumming your're over 25 and there is a huge gap in maturity. I matured earlier than most because i had a daughter my sophmore year in college so by 25 i was already an old man,lol. Whiteside is a young upside guy who is probably immature. I've never read anything about him being a trouble maker and his work ethic hasnt been said to be poor like dorsey. Dorsey was 25 and already peaked body wise and skill wise. Late 1st early 2nd are pretty much the same salary wise.

 

Morey said the price for 2nd round picks was higher than its ever been and usually its 2-2.5 million and future picks... I dont blame Morey for potentially wasting that money when they can use that for helping get a vet center to back up Yao or helping resign Lowry or Scola. Plus they seem committed to putting the backup C responsibilty on Hill. I bet some of the guys they were interested in went undrafted and they can put them through an extended interview in the summer league.

 

geez first off

whiteside is not 19, not even close. he is the same age as patterson 21,whiteside flunked 12th grade because he didnt give a damn about his future or college

whiteside also thinks literally that he is hakeem and kg in the same person and should be in HOF

he also showed up wearing flip flops to draft combine,and not to fall to rockets,but because he is artest-like crazy

he is skinnier than yao when yao was a rookie. he wont be able to hold position,he might even cry and go off the deep end ala eddie griffin,because when you watch interviews he doesnt give eye contact and is very aloof and on something or just doesnt give a damn

did i mention hilton armstrong abused him 5-0?

even though he is very tall, his standing reach is the same as cousins. my take for that is whiteside has a large head and long neck. cousins is 2 inches shorter with the same standing reach. (and whiteside has long arms)


cousins>>>>>>>> >>> and did i mention>>>>>>>>> whiteside.

 

IMO, unless lazy people are surrounded by stronger willed people that push them into being greater, they'll tend to stay on that same general path mentally. We have a great group of players but none that I would say are so strong willed that others will change for them. Yao, Shane, or Chuck Hayes's words won't have an effect on the lazies or knuckleheads, nor do they want the baby sitting chores.

Also, didn't you read Bima's explanation on the guaranteed contract difference between a 1st round pick and 2nd? Being on the hook for just one year instead of 3 makes a world of difference. Why do you think Whiteside was drafted in the 2nd? No one wanted to take a chance on him with 1st round money.

dobro brought up the excellent point that Morey said 2nd picks had a higher value this draft, I remember Morey saying that after the draft.

 

v.3, we would only be on the hook for 2yrs. The last 2 yrs are option yrs if i'm not mistaken. Like what has been mentioned before, maybe there was anyone else with a 1st rd grade at 25 where the mavs bought the pick.

 

Correct, the last 2 are options. But like Bima said, the date to exercise that 3rd year is so early that it's almost likely to be picked up. Why force yourself into that decision when you can get him in the 2nd round?

 

To be fair, even Derrick Favors and Demarcus Cousins would get destroyed by Armstrong. They're just kids; Hilton, while basically a scrub in the NBA, has experience under his belt.

I would've really loved to have Xavier Henry be our backup SG. He could've served as some nice KM-insurance. Patterson is growing on me though, I really like his character and maturity. He'll fit in well with this team.

 

Late 1st early 2nd are essentially the same. The potential payoff is what i would be more concerned with. Teams pay for size and talent. What do u think the magic can get for gortat if they were to trade him? I'm will to bet more than what the rockets can get for scola and hayes. I want to see how many full mle offers scola get this season. Teams knew smith would match,but there were more than a few willing to gorata mle money. Morey has said he's going to match any offer, so i uess we will see. Teams overpay for big talented guys.

 

Not even close.

To illustrate the difference between salary commitment for a late first rounder and an early second rounder, I will use the most telling comparison: #30 pick and the #31 pick.

For 2010-11, the first year rookie scale salary for the #30 pick is $850,800. However, the widely accepted practice is to sign a first round pick to the maximum 120% of the rookie scale salary, which in this case would be $1,020,960.

The rookie scale salary increases by 7.5% in the second year and then again by just under 7% in the third year. While a first round contract is technically only guaranteed for two years, the third year option must be exercised by October 1 before the SECOND season. This means that the team has to make a decision on Year 3 before they even see the kid in training camp for Year 2. Hence, it is rare that a third-year option does not get picked up (Joe Alexander is a remarkable and unusual exception). This puts the guaranteed salaries for the second and third years at about $1,097,530 and $1,174,100, respectively.

So, added up just the guaranteed money, for the last pick of the first round, a team will likely end up owing that kid approximately $3,292,590.

Meanwhile, the very next pick of the draft is owed . . . $473,604. That's the rookie minimum salary for one year.

Now, I will admit that (unless your name is Carl Landry and your team goes into training camp with 20 players under contract), the #31 pick is likely to get two years guaranteed. With the one-year veteran's minimum for 2011-12 being $788,872, this puts the two-year commitment at $1,262,476.

But wait, there's more . . .

With a first round pick, a team must pick up the players' fourth-year option if it wishes to make the player a restricted free agent following that fourth season. The salary increase from the third year to the fourth year of a first round rookie is substantial. It is 26.1% for the #1 overall pick and actually increases the further down a player is picked; the #30 pick gets a 80.5% raise! This would make the fourth-year salary for our hypothetical #30 pick approximately $2,119,250, pushing the total salary commitment for this player to $5,411,840.

On top of all this, the qualifying offer necessary to make the player a restricted free agent after his fourth season is 150% of his previous salary (it's 130% for the #1 overall pick). So, you're looking at a qualifying offer of about $3,178,875. And that's just the qualifying offer. This player's cap hold would actually be 300% of his prior salary, or $6,357,750. This makes cap room management very difficult. (FYI, the Rockets would have faced a major problem like this with Kyle Lowry had they kept T-Mac and gone into free agency with the $7-8M in cap room they may have had.)

Meanwhile, a team has many more options as to what they can do with a second rounder's contract. They can make it a one-year, non-guaranteed "make good" contract. They can only partially guarantee a small amount of a one-year contract. They can partially or fully guarantee the first year of a two-year contract, with a team option for the second season (this is the most common type of contract for second rounders). For high second rounders, the first year tends to be fully guaranteed, with a full or partial guarantee for the second season. Also, for an over-the-cap team that does not intend to use all of its MLE, a savvy GM (like Morey) can sign a second rounder to a multi-year deal with multiple non-guaranteed years or team options. Some rookies will take this sort of deal in exchange for a higher salary (above the league minimum) on the front end. (This is what the Rockets have done with Steve Novak, Joey Dorsey, Jermaine Taylor and Chase Budinger.)

As for qualifying offers and cap holds, second rounders are also much easier for teams to deal with. For our hypothetical #31 pick, the qualifying offer necessary to keep that player a restricted free agent after his second season is only the league minimum plus $175k, or a little over $1 million (the 2012-13 is not currently known due to the impending new CBA). That's a LOT less than the qualifying offer for the guy picked just one spot ahead of him. Plus, the cap hold for this player will only be 200% of his prior salary, or less than $1.58M. Compare that with the #30 pick's $6.36M cap hold, and you can see why teams would prefer the #31 pick over the #30 pick.

Caveat: If a team chooses not to sign a late first rounder to the maximum 120% of the rookie scale salary, those numbers all drop a bit. But they are still substantially larger than the aforementioned numbers attributable to second rounders.

Case in point: The #30 pick this year was Lazar Hayward. Minnesota essentially drafted him to be their third (or maybe even fourth) string small forward. But he is a mature senior leader in whom an NBA team feels it can more safely invest this amount of money. In two or three years, he will have either carved out a niche for himself in the league or not, and a decision on whether to exercise his option may be fairly easy for the T-Wolves. Not so much with a guy like Whiteside. (Also, as a side note, Hayward was maybe the one non-foreign guy [I wasn't sure Whiteside would make it into the second round] I could have seen Les and Morey buying a second rounder to take.)

lebigeez (and the rest of you), I hope that sets some things straight about why early second rounders are so much better than very late first rounders, and just how different the financial and salary cap commitments are to first rounders vs. second rounders.

 

Although, I can't prove it with any posts on here, I've never liked the guy. I've followed enough college ball to know the guy is just a lazy bum. Watching his reaction when he finally got drafted and fell to the second round confirmed that with me.

On an aside note, you have Cousins, Whiteside, and Dalembert are going to be very interesting together. :grin: They'll probably argue on who should take the initiative to get the ball.

I can see it now:

"You get the ball."
"Nah man, you get it."
"Ahh screw it, lets go for a smoke."

 

To add, the center position is arguably the hardest to play with the rules they have now. If you don't have patience, determination, and will to work at it, you're going to get abused or have a short career in this league.

I wasn't trying to be hostile towards him. In fact, if that's what your impression was, then that's a reflection on you, not me. I just simply don't see him being anything more than a bench guy until he can prove he has the heart to play.

 

Bima, how much did chase and taylor sign for vs the 25th pick? I know the heat signed chalmers as if he was a first rd pick. Essentially, you're debating over pennies. In the big picture, you would rather have that player on a rookie contract. If brooks was a 2nd rd pick, he would be restricted right now vs restricted next season. You're looking at the failure impact vs i'm looking at the good player aspect.

Now if we were talking high 1st rd, thats something else. As a organization, i can make that option decision based on practice,developent, and possible gametime scenerios. I wouldnt be scared of a player late because of a decision equuvilent to about 1m which is peanuts vs the salary cap. If the guy fails, its peanuts in the bucket.

 

Bima explained it with a sledgehammer.

I fail to see how Gortat's situation is an argument for Whiteside getting picked in the 1st round instead of the 2nd. Gortat was a 2nd round pick himself (57th pick overall in the 2005 draft).

 

I have to disagree there. Maybe 1 million is a drop a bucket when playing with monopoly money or money that isn't yours. Also we still need rosters spot and cant sign every asset. Besides morey said the asking price for draft picks were too high this year. I really believe they tried to do the best they could, and i am in no position to doubt that.

 

leebigez, Chase and Jermaine each made $725,000 last year (as opposed to the minimum of $457,588). The #25 pick last year (Roddy Beaubois) made $1,075,440, which is the full 120% of his rookie scale salary. That's a $350,000 difference.

The first year salary is only a small part of the difference between a first round rookie scale contract and the contracts that Chase, Jermaine and Mario Chalmers got (partial MLE deals). I already explained how first round picks must have options picked up a full year early and have massive raises in the third and fourth seasons that are necessary to keep the player a restricted free agent when his contract is done. Meanwhile, the "partial MLE guys", in exchange for getting a couple hundred thousand bucks extra in the first year (but still less than the #25 pick), agreed to second and third year salaries equal to the league minimum amount.

Also, the partial MLE guys (well, at least with Chase and Jermaine) have non-guaranteed third and fourth years. This is even better than team options (which must typically be exercised by July 1), since there is no salary commitment AND the Rockets can still use them as financial trade bait until August 1 before each season.

So, it's no small difference.