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Bubble Alan at it again

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by SamFisher, Dec 17, 2009.

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  1. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Long story short, Alan Greenspan believes that since the S&P/DJIA have rallied, it will fix the economy by itself and no other stimulus is needed since households and institutions are wealthier.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=aNnOG1VbdDZs

    So let me illustrate the underlying logic, that for you:

    Due in part to overly-low interest rates, markets inaccurately gauge state of real economy, build up massive asset bubble.

    Reality sets in. Bubble deflates, Markets crash; Economy falls off a cliff

    Rates remain low since economy sucks; Markets/assets now relatively cheap

    Capital flows into markets/assets inflating their value

    Economy saved.

    Yay, overvalued markets and low interest rates! The cause of, and solution to all of our problems!
     
  2. Depressio

    Depressio Member

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    Economy saved, but wouldn't the bubble just inflate again, bursting at a later date?
     
  3. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    That's kind of what it sounds like

    The premise of his theory seems to be that the income effect of rising financial markets will stimulate demand on its own; many problems with this however.

    I don't think anybody would argue that rising equity values will have some income effect, but the argument that it will create enough to be self-sustaining is kind of ridiculous on a lot of levels. Basically it shows that Alan is reverting back to his old silly ways and belief in (circular) market magic. Not dissimilar to "hey cut taxes it will reduce the deficit!" (which he later admitted was a lie).

    I can't believe Bill Gross pays this idiot money.
     
  4. Baqui99

    Baqui99 Member

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    Bernanke, a known Greenspan disciple, basically said the same thing earlier this week at the FOMC meeting. Said we're so far from historical norms that we don't have to worry about overheating from keeping rates low. Guess the idea is to solve one problem at a time. Cross the inflation bridge when we get there.
     
  5. Bandwagoner

    Bandwagoner Member

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    I sold some gold coins when the spot hit 1200. Not investment levels but some of them were from 2002 and 2003. I am hoping inflation will not go out of control and the price is up because of Glenn Beck disciples.
     
  6. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    I'm not saying that interest rates can/should be raised right now, I just think the idea that a rising equity market will solve the recession it created is so absurd I almost can't even put it into words.
     
  7. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    Its like history is doomed to repeat itself. At least inflation will lower the debt.
     
  8. Baqui99

    Baqui99 Member

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    Problem is that nobody ever wants to be the one to the air out of a bubble when things are going well. Look at the last two bubbles we've had with Tech and then Housing. The latter was especially bad since nobody wanted to be the one to "deny someone the American dream" and raising rates.

    Anyways, surprising that the man who coined the expression "irrational exuberance" as the reason for the rising equity markets would believe that it's the fundamental reason behind a LT economic recovery.
     
  9. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

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    They missed the boat on raising rates two years ago.
     
  10. glynch

    glynch Member

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    What happened to Alan's mea culpa that he had been mistaken about the ability of financial markets to regulate themselves.

    It was a blow to his dearly departed boyhood mentor Ayn Rand. There are some reports that she might have even been screwing the poor young lad, but perhaps that is just my warped imagination. IIRC she was noted for screwing the members of her cult.

    ********
    An interesting book review.

    Ayn Rand and the World She Made
    by Anne Conover Heller
    Nophoto-m-50x66
    Lynn's review
    rating: 4 of 5 stars
    status: Read in November, 2009

    I enjoyed this book. The reader is left to make their own conclusions about what made Ayn Rand tick, or what label could be put on her to explain her odd behavior. It was obvious to me she was a narcissist, but the author only used that term once and she also mentioned Albert Ellis made the same assessment. It is likely her narcissism ended up influencing her philosophy, but I don’t think every Objectivist should automatically be labeled a narcissist. The book would have been better if the author had explored her psychology a little more, but the author is a historian and not a psychologist. Anyone familiar with the narcissistic personality disorder would find the life of Ayn Rand fascinating. She was totally oblivious to the thoughts and feelings of those around her, lacking empathy for those even those closest to her. Although she was undoubtedly a genius, she always had an extreme sense of self-importance, exaggerating her own influence and achievements. She required exces...more I enjoyed this book. The reader is left to make their own conclusions about what made Ayn Rand tick, or what label could be put on her to explain her odd behavior. It was obvious to me she was a narcissist, but the author only used that term once and she also mentioned Albert Ellis made the same assessment. It is likely her narcissism ended up influencing her philosophy, but I don’t think every Objectivist should automatically be labeled a narcissist. The book would have been better if the author had explored her psychology a little more, but the author is a historian and not a psychologist. Anyone familiar with the narcissistic personality disorder would find the life of Ayn Rand fascinating. She was totally oblivious to the thoughts and feelings of those around her, lacking empathy for those even those closest to her. Although she was undoubtedly a genius, she always had an extreme sense of self-importance, exaggerating her own influence and achievements. She required excessive loyalty and created enemies of anyone who criticized her or refused to express the kind of admiration she thought she deserved. She formed a cult of loyal followers who worshipped her, and also agreed to make enemies of her enemies. She was a classic narcissist.

    She is also an unbelievably driven woman and had more influence on American political thought than any woman in history. This is the world she made, not the Randian cult which still survives.

    It is ironic that you will never hear a word about Ayn Rand in any Women’s Study course. If social scientists were even somewhat familiar with her personality, most of them would enjoy making her a case study in narcissism

    http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/79903286
     
  11. glynch

    glynch Member

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    Inquiring minds want to know.
    *********
    Q: Was there a relationship between Ayn Rand and Alan Greenspan?
    (2 answers - asked 26 months ago)
    A: Just friends
    They were close friends, and she had a huge influence on him. He was part of her inner circle, the Collective. He contributed writings to her work.

    If you're asking if they had a sexual relationship... well, that's between the two of them. Some people have suggested it, but they're just guessing: neither of the two of them ever made a peep about it if they did. He seems to have a thing for the younger ladies (he's 20 years older than his wife, Andrea Mitchell), and Rand was a lot older than he was (by more than 20 years).

    http://askville.amazon.com/SimilarQuestions.do?req=relationship-Ayn-Rand-Alan-Greenspan
     

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