[Gustav] New Tropical Threat

Here's an old gif on flooding in the Houston metro area should a big storm hit.

 

EVERYONE BUY GAS

 

I don't think we get a say in it. It's going to hit where it's going to hit, and there's nothing we can do about that.

 

I hope you mean for Houston only -- Rita definitely wasn't "nothing" for some of us.

And Gustav's not going to Houston. Models running more and more east by the minute.

 

Holy crap- it's supposed to hit CAT5 tonight.

 

I hope that storm when it hits inland doesn't become an Allison...

 

I mean, it's only 15 MB from Cat 5. Don't be surprised if it hits that tonight.

It is though. Most (if not all) models have it stalling once it makes landfall.

 

yea from that projection path, it is going to stall around the east texas/west Louisana for at least 2 days after landfall probably on early Tuesday morning

 

hey everyone down in the Gulf Coast, please take care of yourselves and your loved ones. I hate having to see my family and friends have to deal with this stress all over again.

 

Does anyone know how populated west Cuba is? The are going to get hammered.

[Edit] Never mind - I see that Havana is located over there.
http://209.15.138.224/cuba_maps/m_cuba_pop_1977x.htm

 

This has been an incredibly difficult storm for the NHC to forecast and it appears that will continue. They still aren't that great at forecasting exactly when a storm will bump against a ridge and change direction. I can see the forecast being off my quite a bit even a day or two off from landfall. The possibility of another Allison type rain event is troubling.

 

Time to deal with Allison Part Dos

 

I had to work a golf outing in League City this morning. The traffic jam was Southbound on I-45 in Clear Lake. I did see about 25 tour buses headed to Galveston.

Dubious' evacuation lessons from Rita:

1.Get up and leave in the middle of the night! Not only is the traffic lighter but it's a lot cooler than sitting stopped on the freeway in a 101 heat index. (and it's darker when you have to pee on the side of the road)

From the track above, I'd say about 1 AM Monday is a good ETD. And plan to go West, not North ( and sure as hell not East!). Rita ended up being a lot harder on the people that drove the 20 hours to get to East Texas than in the ones that just stayed put. Maybe see if you can get a room in New Braunfels and just take the kids to Schliterbaun for Labor Day.

 

Oh damn. So, Gustav wants an encore? Models have it turning back around after landfall:

 

If you said Rita was nothing...you were wrong. 20 foot storm surge. Communities in SE Texas were destroyed. $10 billion in damage in a sparsely populated area. Had Rita made impact in Houston, it would have been a freaking nightmare.

 

He did call it as nothing for Houston. He said it was going to turn and it did.
It was pure luck, but he did take a shot and was right.

 

i thought he was talking about intensity...so he was talking about location?? so he's saying this one is going to hit houston?

 

chron.com is reporting it's category 5 now

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5974967.html