[Statesman.com] Cowboys, Texans on the rise

In the interest of saving time, let's fast-forward to Feb. 3, 2008.

The New England Patriots will beat the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLII. Sorry to ruin the intrigue.

The Patriots will get there by design, the Bears will return by default. League bylaws insist on only one AFC team per Super Bowl, so someone will have to represent the NFC, and the Bears know the way.

Alas, Dallas and Houston will not make it there, but the Cowboys will win a playoff game.

Relying on the two most relevant factors, New England and Chicago have either a great or competent quarterback and a great defense. The Patriots have the most reliable quarterback in the league in Tom Brady. Assuming Rex Grossman doesn't get sidetracked by New Year's Eve plans or his own madly fluctuating quarterback ratings, the Bears quarterback will not hold them back this season, and if he does, there are much worse backup quarterbacks than Brian Griese. Are you listening, David Carr?

Quarterback is just too critical a position in the league today. Trent Dilfer can win a Super Bowl with a team like Baltimore, but it helped that the Ravens' defense gave up only 152 total yards, had four sacks and forced four turnovers. Chicago has that kind of defense.

You want to follow a road map to Phoenix, first circle the 15 NFL teams with quarterbacks who are superstars, well-established and/or have been there before. And you can pretty much eliminate the other 17 teams.

That would exclude the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans from Super Bowl consideration.

Tony Romo is still too young, and Matt Schaub is simply too inexperienced. Here's betting Romo will be spectacular at times but also inconsistent and occasionally too cavalier with the ball. And the preseason hasn't determined whether Schaub, with two career starts but action in 38 games in three years, will be the second coming of Rob Johnson — a disaster in Buffalo — or the next Philip Rivers. Romo has started only 11 games, including an ill-fated one in the playoffs.

Romo has the clear advantage of having a much superior and bigger offensive line and better weapons at running back, tight end and wide receiver. Schaub is just trying to stay in one piece behind Houston's patchwork offensive line, which nevertheless should be better than last year's, but he does have the security of a six-year, $48 million contract. Romo has the motivation of playing for a lucrative contract.

Schaub is without benefit of a proven No. 2 receiver opposite Andre Johnson — Kevin Walter has one touchdown in four seasons, and electrifying wideout/punt returner Jacoby Jones remains a rookie — and doesn't know if Ahman Green's 30-year-old body will hold up over an entire season.

There are other reasons the Cowboys and Texans won't be representing their conferences in the Super Bowl. I was leaning toward making Dallas a dark-horse contender for that game until No. 1 cornerback Terence Newman showed up with plantar fasciitis — an ailment that should bother him all season — and the recovery of defensive end Greg Ellis and No. 2 wideout Terry Glenn from their injuries has been painfully slow. That's not to say Dallas can't get there, but its journey just got more treacherous.

Still, Wade Phillips' attacking defense and the vast array of offensive playmakers should earn Dallas a 10-6 record and the NFC East crown. The Cowboys at least have a shot at a deep playoff run, especially if Newman heals.

Houston is a candidate for an 8-8 year, at best, which would represent an upgrade over last year's 6-10 season. A rough December schedule with two games against the Broncos and Colts shape up as a faltering finish and a final 7-9 record.

Schaub may have not the arm — or the time in the pocket — to throw deep downfield. And he figures to have too little help in his line and the defensive front to suggest the Texans can do anything more than contend for a winning record.

Of the first 41 Super Bowls, the game's MVP was a quarterback in 21 of them. In the 50 seasons that the Associated Press has picked a league MVP, a quarterback has been chosen outright or shared the choice 32 times.

Romo did make the Pro Bowl, becoming the first Cowboys quarterback to do so since Troy Aikman. He's a quarterback on the rise. Schaub just hopes to remain upright.

kbohls@statesman.com

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