I assume that Bettencourt is on the ballot against his pro-arena opponent tomorrow. Has anything been made of this either on talk radio or in any campaign ads down there? Has this been a campaign issue at all in this race or is it so down ballot to GWB's "race", that it isn't getting any attention at all? If the differences on the arena issue have been highlighted, will the results be a true proxy for the future referendum? Thanks for any info or opinions. [This message has been edited by grummett (edited March 13, 2000).]
Virtualy nothing. Almost all the emphasis has been on the presidential race, with a little mention of a contested city council position and district attourney. The tax assessor position has been mentioned very little, and I don't even remember seeing an add or article on the opponent. The upshot is, Bettencorp has done a pretty good job as tax assessor. His department is much more user friendly, and they have improved speed of refunds and other responses. Other than the 1999 arena refforendum, he really hasn't created any waves. With that issue fading, he will probably win easily.
That's really funny that someone would think that his anti-arena stance would hurt him. Most voters would consider that a positive. After all the voters did turn it down, so they agreed with him. That's even more true since he is running in the Republican primary.
Who: Actually, Bettencourt took a HUGE amount of heat from the major Republican contributors for opposing the arena. In fact, it is considered a slap in the face that he had to actually run in the primary. Most incumbents don't get that kind of opposition within their own party unless they did something to piss them off. Frankly, I think the guy did a pretty good job as tax assessor too. The online thing is very cool and it was mostly his doing. He won't lose, but the opposition he received is a message to him and I'm certain he is aware of it. ------------------ "Society always honors its live conformists and its dead non-conformistis."
BTW: If you look at the numbers from the last election, Republicans AND Democrats voted to oppose the arena. The 54% opposition was split nearly 50/50 among both parties. ------------------ "Society always honors its live conformists and its dead non-conformistis."
Points well taken Jeff, but it's always best not confuse "major Republican contributors" with the voting public. Those major Republican contributors are mostly among the same downtown interests as the "major Democratic contributors." The point is that the public agreed with Bettencourt, overwhelmingly so in the surburban Republican strongholds. Those are the people who vote the most in the Republican primary. I'm curious where you got your figures of 50/50 split and how that broke down among the various regions of the city.
Well, the problem is simply this. Some Republicans who don't want any taxes of any kind resent the additional tax money being used for funding. True the mechanism is already in place but the need for the taxing ebbs and flows depending on what you are trying to build. Less money being allocated means less need for the taxation. Some of the Democrats see it as--and this is my view--a program by which a fat cat gets fatter while not elevating the rest of the community in any way shape or form. Arena deals don't usually appeal to one side or the other of this baneful two party system we live under. Having a team that is going to be in the lottery this year definitely hurts also.
My campaign manager supplied me with the figures. She got them from the city. Of course the suburbs were 80 to 20 against and they are predominantly republican, but the big problem was the inner city vote was 50/50 which is not usual. Also, many of the typical Democratic strongholds like the Heights (my neigborhood) were slightly more against than for. Bottom line: it was a very poorly run race by the pro-arena forces and a very well-run racy by the opposition. Everyone I've talked to that voted against it and is not what we would consider a very educated voter voted against it because they thought it was a "bad deal" (sound familiar?), but when pressed for why they thought it was such a bad deal, they couldn't come up with a reason that was true. I actually had several people tell me that a property tax or sales tax increase was unfair. When I asked them what tax, they said that they heard that taxes would be raised. When I informed them that they wouldn't be raised and that the hotel and rental car taxes were already in place, they seemed surprised. Again, this was just effective campaigning. It is my solemn belief that winning this race will have little to do with changing the minds of the opposition. Some of them won't change their minds and others probably will vote for an arena because they don't really want to see the Rockets leave. The biggest challenge any campaign faces is getting the voters who want the arena out to the polls. Period. When you have a relatively small election (even 500,000 is not large considering the county has nearly 8,000,000 of eligible voting age), he who gets the vote out wins. That is why we're trying to stay on the positive side and just encourage people to vote rather than try to change minds. ------------------ "Society always honors its live conformists and its dead non-conformistis."
If your campaign manager told you that there are 8 million eligible voters in Harris County, you need to get a new one. I don't have the time or inclination to hunt down the exact figure, but the Harris County web site says that the total population of the county is "more than three million." The Encyclopedia Britannica says that the 1996 estimate of population of the city of Houston is 1,744,000. Given that a significant percentage of the population is children and non-citizens, there would have to be something like 12 million total population to produce 8 million voters. Dr. No
The MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) for Houston is roughly 4 million. My estimate would be around 2.5 million eligible voters.
Well, he won with 88% of the vote so his opposition wasn't much of a drag. Anybody want to bet against him in November. ------------------
According to the Texas Secretary Of State's Website, there are 1.75 million registered voters in Harris County ------------------
My mistake, not hers. I meant to type 4. Don't know why I was thinking 8. I think I have too much to think about and it just felt like 8 million! Anyway, the 50/50 split is accurate, however. ------------------ "Society always honors its live conformists and its dead non-conformistis."
