[CBS Sportsline]- Southwest Preview

http://www.sportsline.com/nba/story/9013663?nba_southwest_103005


San Antonio won its second championship in three years last season, its third since 1999. Because of the relative youth of its core, the term "dynasty" would have to start getting thrown around if they can hang another banner in the SBC Center rafters.

Predicted order of finish
Order Team
1 San Antonio
2 Houston
3 Dallas
4 Memphis
5 N0/OC
With nearly everyone back from last year's roster and a pair of battle-tested veterans who will do anything to get their hands on a ring coming on board, most consider them the favorite to repeat. Some are even tossing around the idea that 70 wins is possible.

That's getting a little carried away considering the strength of the Southwest, the only division to produce four playoff teams and three 50-win squads last year. While the Central has overtaken it in terms of collective strength, the division remains loaded.

Houston believes it's going to be better given its offseason moves and the continued maturation of Yao Ming. Memphis should also be better, while Dallas is looking forward to a full season under the tutelage of Avery Johnson.


Tim Duncan's Spurs should repeat in the Southwest. (Getty Images)
Don't be surprised to see a repeat of last year's excellence: four playoff participants, three 50-game winners.

Five X-factors
1. If the Spurs are to put up the league's top record in the loaded Western Conference, Tony Parker has to become a more consistent playmaker.

2. Yao Ming needs to use his size better. At 7-foot-5, to average less than 10 rebounds and only two blocks per game is inexcusable and sometimes holds the Rockets back.

3. Jerry Stackhouse is healthy and explosive again, so even if he never regains a starting gig, he could play a huge role as the Mavericks' No. 2 scoring option.

4. Memphis rookie Hakim Warrick, if he can emerge immediately as a quality defender and rebounder, gives Mike Fratello another versatile option off the bench alongside Shane Battier.

5. Lithuanian import Arvydas Macijauskas has been called by some, including NBA GMs, the best shooter in the world. Byron Scott will find a way to get him minutes if he's legit.

Breakout players

It's hard to top what he did in the postseason, but that likely gave Manu Ginobili the confidence to carry that over to a full 82 games. Already an All-Star, he'll be even more dominant.

Stromile Swift will emerge now that he's happy with a solidified role on a championship contender. Look for him to finally show everyone why he was once taken with the No. 2 overall pick.

Mejia's All-Southwest selections
First team
F Tracy McGrady Houston
F Dirk Nowitzki Dallas
F/C Tim Duncan San Antonio
G Chris Paul New Orleans
G Manu Ginobili San Antonio
Second team
F Desmond Mason New Orleans
F Pau Gasol Memphis
C Yao Ming Houston
G Tony Parker San Antonio
G Jerry Stackhouse Dallas

Southwest Player of the Year
Tim Duncan, San Antonio

Southwest Rookie of the Year
Chris Paul, NO/OC

Josh Howard works exceptionally hard and is coming around offensively. Defensively, he's already a standout, so Mark Cuban better start working on his extension before it gets overly expensive.
Damon Stoudamire is another player likely to experience a rebirth now that he's back with a contending team.

In case you didn't notice Chris Paul's presence on our projected All-Southeast First Team, there's a very good chance he's going to be exceptional right off the bat. He should start looking for a place to prominently display the rookie of the year award.

Players on the decline

Not to say Bruce Bowen isn't going to remain the Spurs most valuable perimeter defender, but he's likely to lose time to the newly acquired Michael Finley. Not that that's necessarily a bad thing considering his legs aren't getting any younger. Beno Udrih, who lost Gregg Popovich's confidence during the last postseason, also figures to lose minutes with Nick Van Exel on board.

Unless Mike Miller starts fast and shakes off his inconsistent nature, he's bound to lose time to the Grizzlies' other capable wings like Battier, Warrick, Dahntay Jones and Eddie Jones, who all have to find time within Fratello's rotation.

Now that Desmond Mason is on board, expect former projected starter Bostjan Nachbar to get significantly fewer minutes considering J.R. Smith and new acquistions Macijauskas, Kirk Snyder and Rasual Butler also have to play.

Five predictions

1. The Spurs won't win more than 63 games -- those underachievers.

2. Bob Sura, rumored to be done for the season and possibly his entire career, will be back to provide an emotional lift at some point this season.

3. The same foul issues that plagued Erick Dampier in his first season in Dallas will continue to plague him.

4. The Grizzlies will be among the league leaders in field goal percentage defense.

5. New Orleans/Oklahoma City will end up with the league's worst record now that they've dealt Jamaal Magloire.

Games to watch
Nov. 1, Dallas at Phoenix: Perhaps the most interesting season opener, Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki get to hang out together prior to a rematch of last year's Western Conference semis. Oh yeah, and the Suns debut minus Amare Stoudemire.

Nov. 4, Sacramento at NO/OK: Oklahoma City's Ford Center debuts as an NBA venue, with the people there hoping to prove that they can exist as a major-league city. The Hornets will play 35 dates there and host six games in Baton Rouge.

Dec. 25, San Antonio at Detroit: The NBA serves up a holiday treat with this Finals rematch, complete with John Mason's introductions and hopefully -- unless Tony Parker messes up -- camera shots of Eva Longoria. Robert Horry also gets to visit the exact spot where he launched his memorable Game 5 clincher.

Jan. 24, Memphis at Miami: These two squads also get together to open the season on Nov. 2, but with this meeting's later date, we'll have a little perspective on how the particulars involved in this summer's blockbuster trade are faring.

April 19, San Antonio at Houston: It's doubtful the division will be up for grabs in this season finale, but the Rockets will no doubt be looking to establish momentum entering the playoffs.

Which team will win the Southwest Division?
62% San Antonio
20% Houston
10% Dallas
5% New Orleans
3% Memphis
Total Votes: 532

 

http://cbs.sportsline.com/nba/teams/preview/HOU

this is like a season preview type deal, kinda interesting, although the writer predicts our record will be 47-53 which isn't possible bc the last time i checked we play 82 games rather than 100