Time to take the pulse again. Which team is most likely to challenge the Astros at the end? Also say why. Since last time, the Cubs have died and the Mets are dying. I still completely rule out the Nationals so that leaves the Marlins and Phillies. I fear the Marlins more because they've done it before. There is something about the Phillies that makes me think the Marlins will beat the out again, hopefully for 2nd place in the Wild Card behind the Stros. Code: NATIONAL W L Pct GB HOME ROAD RS RA STRK L10 Houston 63 52 .547 - 39-16 24-36 500 444 Won 3 6-4 Philadelphia 61 55 .526 2.5 36-25 25-30 538 532 Won 1 6-4 Washington 60 55 .522 3 34-22 26-33 444 467 Won 1 4-6 Florida 59 56 .513 4 31-26 28-30 522 489 Lost 2 5-5 NY Mets 58 57 .504 5 36-23 22-34 528 481 Lost 2 5-5 Milwaukee 56 60 .483 7.5 30-24 26-36 521 505 Lost 4 4-6 Chicago Cubs 56 60 .483 7.5 29-29 27-31 518 528 Won 2 2-8 Arizona 56 61 .479 8 27-32 29-29 514 602 Won 2 4-6
I also say the Marlins. Although you do have to take notice that the Cubs have been handling the Cards these last few days. I'm not saying they are a threat, but I figured after that series they would be behind us by double digits.
Check out the run differentials... The Astros lead all the other wild card teams in that category by a BUNCH. There's no mystery why the Astros are the wild card leaders... great pitching and timely offense... but the run differential stat says they should be the wild card leaders by even MORE than they 2.5 games they're up on Philadelphia. In the end, teams live up to those stats. When Washington was at their peak, everybody was pointing to how they still had a negative run differential, and thus they'd slowly fall back to the pack (and they did).
I still say the Marlins are the largest threat, too. They are the team in the NLeast (other than the Braves) that are the most capable of going on a long tear. They've got all the tools. Their pitching isn't as deep as the Astros. They will be in Houston for 4 games in mid-Sept. That might decide the race right there. I don't think the Phillies have enough to stay in the race for much longer. Washington will hang around but won't really be a threat. The Mets will suffer without Cameron. The Cubs are done. A couple of wins against the Cards are nice for them, but meaningless in the long run. With all of the injuries, it just isn't going to happen. Watch out for the Brewers...next year.
Im going w/ the Phillies as are biggest threat right now, because they seem to be winning at the moment. But in the long run I feel the Marlins are the biggest threat. They know how to win and have been here before. Washington is just too weak and the Mets haven't been able to put it all together and are gonna suffer even more w/o Cameron. Cubs are fading really fast and are about done, and the D'Backs and Brewers shouldn't even be on the list (though both are having pretty good seasons all things considered).
I'll go with Brewers...because they have the same odds of catching the 'Stros as everyone else. Nada.
Some love from the media for the Stros http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=neel/050818 Would you rather see the Astros, Phillies or Nationals win the NL wild card? Houston all the way. First, the euphoric "it's so great to have baseball back in the nation's capital" stuff has got to stop. The very thought of Tucker Carlson in a Nationals cap on my television makes me break out in hives. Some suffering is in order. These are, after all, the Expos, and this is, after all, the seat of a government whose domestic policy prominently features the idea that hard times are a requisite Horatio Alger prelude to making something of yourself. Second, I just can't seem to get excited for the moment when Joe Buck says, "And with the series on the line, tonight the Phillies turn to their ace, Brett Myers." Maybe it's me. Maybe it's the five home runs surrendered in the last two starts. Who can say? And third, there's the Biggio-Bagwell swan song, there's the chance (not all that remote) that Clemens and Oswalt go all Schilling and Johnson on us in some big game, when one or the other comes in for two innings of "I'm naming my baby after the man" relief, and maybe most importantly of all, there's the chance that Morgan Ensberg, with a few well-timed home runs, might continue his steady march (past Tracy Morgan and Morgan Fairchild) up the list of all-time Morgans in American popular culture. For those scoring at home, Ensberg's got Stanley Morgan and Morgan Stanley in his sights now, but is, of course, not even within dreaming distance of either Joe Morgan or Morgan Freeman.
Both the Fish and the Phils scare me. We have 3 at Philly the 2nd week of Sept and 4 at home against the fish the 3rd week of September. This wildcard race is going to be a photo finish.
Don't worry about the Phils -- they've got no starting pitching. Maybe it's just that I've been listening to Philly "fans" bash the Phils nonstop all summer on sports radio, but I just don't think they're for real. Now, the Fish -- that's something to worry about ...
Philadelphia sports fans will bash their pro teams after a perfect season. Some of the toughest sports fans in the country. Don't forget that Veterans Stadium used to have a mini city jail in it's lower level.
It's really been hilarious. They were bashing the Phils and Dave Montgomery at the beginning of Spring Training, and they never let up all through their climb back into the race. The past couple weeks 98% of the calls are about TO even though the Phils were creeping into it. The other 1% were about how much the Phils suck -- as they got back into the race! (the final 1% were about the Flyers or Brian Westbrook.) Hysterical. You'd think they'd have been 30 games under .500 all season instead of a respectable Wild Card contender. However, I still don't think their pitching can hold up. The Fish worry me.
