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Why does Ime intentionally foul up 3 with so much time left?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by ChillyPete32, Mar 22, 2026 at 12:07 PM.

  1. ChillyPete32

    ChillyPete32 Member

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    Has there been an analytical deep dive on this? I've seen deep dives on fouling up 3 with a few seconds left vs defending the 3 point line and the conclusion is typically that it's a push.

    Fouling with so much time left seems like it would be even worse since, as we've seen, if they make the FTs you have to successfully inbounds and then make both free throws just to be in the exact same position with a couple of additional seconds shaved off the clock. It's also easier to set up a press after made FTs than if the opposing team doesn't take a 3 and scores a 2. It just seems to add more variance, which is not what you want when you already have a strong probability to win the game.

    I don't think any other teams do this either.
     
    #1 ChillyPete32, Mar 22, 2026 at 12:07 PM
  2. mac_got_this

    mac_got_this Member

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    Other teams do it. Some just execute it better.


    Jabari had great positioning on Bam. No way Bam had the footwork to get a good shot off over Jabari’s height. He should’ve held his stance a lil longer but he didn’t want to take the chance. Me and my company all said why did he foul. He had great defensive position and leverage there.
    It’s just bball iq that always will kill this rocket squad. We badly need a iggy type out there. The best thing about the cp3 years were, it always seemed like we were the smarter, more poised team.

    and then we made the Westbrook trade and it’s been downhill with the bball iq ever since
     
    #2 mac_got_this, Mar 22, 2026 at 12:37 PM
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  3. LosPollosHermanos

    LosPollosHermanos Clutch Crew
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    Too much time on clock
     
    #3 LosPollosHermanos, Mar 22, 2026 at 1:00 PM
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  4. ChillyPete32

    ChillyPete32 Member

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    Which teams do? I think majority (but not all) of teams foul up 3 with something like ~3-5 or less seconds left in the game but offhand I rarely recall seeing our opponents or teams in other games foul up 3 with something like 9-12 seconds left to the extent the Rockets do.
     
    #4 ChillyPete32, Mar 22, 2026 at 1:01 PM
  5. harold bingo

    harold bingo Member

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    The strategy is good and the math is in your favor under two conditions - you are very good at inbounding the ball successfully under pressure, and you are a better free throw shooting team than your opponent. Does that sound like the rockets? I'll let the audience decide.
     
    #5 harold bingo, Mar 22, 2026 at 1:58 PM
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  6. kjayp

    kjayp Member

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    better 2 free throws than 3...
    do u trust our guys to adequately defend a 3 without fouling?

    our perimeter defense sucks... itd b bad enough giving up an open 3 - but our knuckleheads will turn it into a 4 pt play...
     
    #6 kjayp, Mar 22, 2026 at 2:09 PM
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2026 at 2:17 PM
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  7. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    It's a very common strategy in the NBA to foul when up 3. Especially when you have a FT shooter like KD on the squad.

    Sure, when you have Tari as an inbounder, the legitimacy of the strategy is more questionable...
     
    #7 DrNuegebauer, Mar 22, 2026 at 5:27 PM
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  8. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

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    We are terrible at inbounding. KD, jabari, sengun are slow off ball movement guys. And can be pressured easily even after they get the ball. Tari is reckless as hell. Amen also can't handle the pressure. So while generally it is not a bad idea to foul, even with 8-9 seconds left, because you avoid a 3, run the clock a little bit, make them waste their time outs, reduce the variance in a game you are ahead. But not a good idea with the current roster.
     
    #8 AlperenSengun, Mar 22, 2026 at 6:03 PM
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  9. Shroopy2

    Shroopy2 Member

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    The extra variance after fouling, is like a 5% chance of it leading to backfiring. Both a completed inbound pass and making at least 1 free throw are highly probable. Even missing both free throws after the inbound at least kills a little more clock.

    Rockets just lack the execution and IQ, and make it more a 20% chance of it backfiring. How many other teams give the opponent the ball back RIGHT NEAR the basket for a layup? The fact we rarely see that shows how uniquely bad that Tari's turnover is
     
    #9 Shroopy2, Mar 22, 2026 at 6:16 PM
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  10. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    The Kiss of Death is a good example
    1. Elie makes the 3 for 113-110 lead with 7.1 seconds left
    2. Horry fouls Majerle with 4.7 seconds left - 113-112
    3. Drexler fouled with 3.5 seconds left - 115-112
    4. Ainge fouled with 2.1 seconds. Accidentally made second FT trying to miss - 115-114
    I think Rudy made correct decision to foul, but even then, Drexler can’t miss, and they still had 2.1 for the intentional FT miss.

    I was nervous for sure

     
    #10 heypartner, Mar 22, 2026 at 7:00 PM
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  11. ThatboyPhuong

    ThatboyPhuong Member

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    I dont trust what we do lol there are times we don't foul if we up 3 but we end up closing out recklessly and they get a four point play.
    As long as we dont play tate and tari in those possessions I suppose.
     
    #11 ThatboyPhuong, Mar 22, 2026 at 8:02 PM
  12. ChillyPete32

    ChillyPete32 Member

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    Answered my own question and found something from Hollinger about this during last years' playoffs when this came up a couple of times with teams fouling up 3 with a decent amount of time on the clock and it came back to bite them. Apparently Stan Van Gundy had a rule to only foul up 3 with 6 seconds or less on the clock, which kind of matches how I've historically thought of it. Hollinger noted fouling up 3 with that much time adds more variance to a situation where a team has an extremely high likelihood of winning. I think it's foolish.

    From Hollinger: "It’s a point I’ve made over and over, but I will make again: The foul-up-three, especially with more than six seconds on the clock, is the only realistic way the leading team can lose in regulation."


    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/63...ayoffs-fouls-late-leads-thunder-timberwolves/
     
    #12 ChillyPete32, Mar 22, 2026 at 10:41 PM
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  13. ashleyem

    ashleyem Member

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    I think there was a game against Portland 2 seasons ago in which Jerami Grant hit a game tying three and we lost the game eventually. Since then Ime has been intentionally fouling in these situations. Doc Rivers does it all the time and honestly it works almost every time I watch.
     
    #13 ashleyem, Mar 22, 2026 at 10:45 PM
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  14. Imanimal

    Imanimal Member

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    Agree with doing it six seconds or less. Rockets are the worst inbounding team in league history, so that needs to be taken into consideration.
     
    #14 Imanimal, Mar 23, 2026 at 2:30 AM
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