We'll see how the Matthew's and Coles of the world do this season. We have a handful of guys that could be meaningful players by years end, but they all have some pretty ugly holes in their profile. The Astros haven't graduated a meaningful prospect the last 3 seasons. At a certain point it isn't national media pessimism, it's just a fact. The Astros farm has been bad the last few seasons and even now only has hopes for breakouts into top prospect territory
Nah. The Astros graduated All-Star Jeremy Pena in 2022 and CY Finalist Hunter Brown and starting C Yainer Diaz in 2023. So really this “slump” is related to 2024-2025. In 2024 they graduated August 2024 MLB Rookie of the Month Spencer Arrighetti who posted 1.7 fwar (83rd among all MLB SP) as a rookie and traded away Jake Bloss who is a top 100 prospect and brought back a P in Kikuchi who pitched like an ace. In 2025 they graduated Cam Smith who was a top 50 prospect and became their everyday RF less than a year after getting drafted and who got ROY votes. The narrative is bullshit. The Astros were 12th in the league in rookie fWAR last year. Had Arrighetti not gotten hurt last year and Smith not fallen apart (or not been rushed), Houston’s farm would be inarguably maintaining its streak of producing at least one quality core player every year. Every year they’ve been ranked in the bottom 5 of the league they’ve produced MLB value commiserate with a team in the middle of the pack. The Astros farm system is not good right now, but they are not among the 3 worst in the league. They may not even be 3rd worst in their division. Their AA infield is likely going to be terrible this season, which is bad because that’s where the meat of most farm systems is, but outside of that their farm is on par with most of the teams in the league. That Fangraphs list is ridiculously low on Brice Matthews.Ethan Frey, and Zach Cole. It’s stupid lazy writing to look at their secondary stats and say “swings and misses-WORTHLESS!” and to write off the system because they’re thin on bonus babies.
Rough day in the field so far for the Spring Breakout team as they've got 4 errors. Three errors came in the 2nd inning and resulted in three Marlins runs.
1st 4 Miami runs scored due to 4 errors. Then the Stros loaded the bases with no outs: 1-2-3 GIDP, then loaded them again, then a K to end the inning. Glad I'm watching basketball instead.
Pena, Brown, and Cam (surprised he is considered part of the Astros farm rankings as he was not on the Astros farm) were highly rated. The systems have been rated weak as there just is not much depth outside of pitching. The Astros would not be struggling with depth if they had a strong minor league system.
Are the Astros really struggling with “depth” though? Their lineup depth is weaker than in years past because of established hitters (namely Walker and Diaz) taking an unprojected step back, not because of a lack of prospects. Further down they have healthy competition for their 8-13 position player spots with Loperfido, Dezenzo, Smith, Cole, and Meyers, among others. The depth for the back of the rotation and middle relief on the pitching side is so deep I don’t consider it even reasonable to argue they are struggling to fill those spots.
Cole Hertzler threw three scoreless + no-hit innings in the Spring Breakout game. He walked two and struck out five. The prospects erased a 6-1 deficit by scoring two runs in each of the final three innings and walked off with a 7-6 win. Arturo Flores hit a two-run double in the 7th. Chase Call hit an RBI single and Nick Monistere drew a bases-loaded walk in the 8th. In the 9th, German Ramirez tied the game with an RBI single, and Juan Sierra scored the winning run on a Caden Powell fielder's choice. The Marlins had the infield drawn in, Powell hit one to the shortstop, and Sierra somehow beat the tag. I've watched the replay and I still don't know how he beat the tag from a throw that beat him by about three steps.
Astros offense: 4H, 1XBH, 18BB, 17K, 3-17RISP…walk it off 7-6 (first Stros run was scored on a BB-BB-2bl steal-WP)
Weird game. Astros won with a “2 true outcome” approach where 2/3 of their pa were either a walk or a k.
Some thoughts from the prospect game. James Hicks sat 93 with more 94s than 92s. Got two swinging Ks on the change up vs lefties and one with a sweeper to a righty. He got hurt by some poor defense, but played pretty well. The change up in particular seemed to have some really nice movement on it. Javier Perez might be throwing a little harder this year. He was sitting around 93 in his first inning, and topped out at 95, but dropped down to sitting 91 in his 2nd frame. He averaged 91.4 last year. He's thrown a ton of strikes so far in his career, which seems like a nice foundation if he can add some velocity and improve secondaries. He didn't generate very many whiffs today. Chase Call hit a ball quite hard (108 mph). He had a nice pro debut, and probably carries at least plus raw power. As an older RHH corner OF, he probably needs to hold his own in AA this season to really get any hype, but of the lower tier position players they drafted last summer, I feel he's the guy who has stood out the most. Hertzler was 94-95 with his upper 70s curve being the most effective weapon today. Leomar Rosario didn't throw any fastballs slower than 99 mph, though gameday had a few that weren't particularly close to the zone. Juan Sierra is a rather large man. Conversely, German Ramirez probably has room to add some bulk. They both put together nice ABs against a guy throwing upper 90s in order to stage the comeback. They both played well in the FCL last season. Ramirez has been moved somewhat aggressively, getting cups of coffee at Fayetteville each of the last two seasons, despite still being a teenager with limited statistical success. I do wonder if some of these guys were throwing a little harder than normal given the short outings in an exhibition setting. The pitchers played pretty well, the defense was inconsistent. The hitters drew 18 walks but ended with 4 hits. Not sure there's really any takeaways from a prospect exhibition game, but it was nice to see the good guys come out on top. Neyens, Monistere, and Sullivan (DH) played the whole game.
Spring Breakout is a cool one-off and I like that it’s a permanent feature of Spring Training, but I don’t really think there’s anything to glean in terms of prospect stock.
For sure. It was fun to see velocity readings from the guys who haven't pitched in a game with Statcast before, as well as what some of the younger guys look like, since it's rare for DSL/FCL highlights to be posted.
Another cut day yesterday. The following players were released: RHP Manuel Urias - Minor league Rule 5 draft pick from the Phillies in 2022, spent most of last season in Corpus RHP David Landeta - Dominican RHP signed in 2022, split time between Fayetteville and the FCL in 2025 SS Anthony Sherwin - UDFA from Bucknell in 2023, never got his bat going, slashed .147/.231/.189 in 30 games with Corpus SS Darwin De Leon - 22-year-old Dominican IF had good complex league stats, but was never really thought of as a serious prospect. OF/1B Justin Trimble - plagued by strikeouts and was underwhelming in Fayetteville, slashed .184/.285/.307 in 55 games The following pitchers were also placed on the 60-day IL: Garrett Apker Juan Bello Jank Pichardo Antony Aparicio - also missed 2025 season Porfirio Ramos Grant Burleson Julio Marte - also missed 2025 season
Summoned from the backfields: RHP Charlie Weber - UDFA from Saint Louis who signed last summer OF D.J. Newman - 15th-round pick last year, former two-way player RHP Eurys Martich - Dominican righty who got out of the complex leagues last season after missing two years due to injury RHP Dylan Howard - 2024 8th-rounder who pitched at both A levels last year after a delayed start to his season RHP Francisco Frias - strictly a reliever, had a nice 2025 for Fayetteville
Players called up to play for sugar land tonight: C Garret Guillemette IF Caden Powell IF James Nelson 2B Yamal Encarnacion OF Kellen Strahm P Javier Perez P Alejandro Torres P Jose Guedez
