Agreed. As @carl_herrera keeps saying, you either draft a guy or you find a guy before he breaks out. The only teams that seem to find success by acquiring already-superstar players are huge ultra-attractive markets like the Lakers or teams with extraordinarily effective coaches/front offices (Miami, and even then only because they're in the East). We certainly don't have the latter and Houston isn't a large enough market or an attractive enough city for the former, even though it's above-average in at least the first category and arguably the second. We were building things the right way up until this offseason and we decided to accelerate the timeline. The KD trade in and of itself wasn't that bad; re-signing FVV, Adams, signing an injured vet like DFS were bad moves. KD can be traded this offseason if he stays healthy, so I don't even mind the extension that much, depending on what they do after this sh*tshow of a season is over.
im only willing to shed Sengun as part of a package for a true franchise player. I also think if you are convinced that Amen and Reed are the guys you want to build around, the fit with Sengun is poor. I really like Sengun. I think he’s valuable. But I wouldn’t trade Amen over Sengun. I think we are probably gonna have to pick one. I’ve been watching Sengun for 6 seasons and no one wants the Amen/Sengun combo to work more than I. But I am now convinced it’s unlikely to work. Both players needed to show at least some shooting progression and they just haven’t. I think it’s unrealistic that we are gonna acquire the franchise draft pick or the franchise prospect with a package that doesn’t include our really good prospects. I just value Amen more.
As years go by, it's getting more and more unlikely that Sengun or Amen will become a top 10 player. We can safely say that Bari and Tari aren't franchise level guys but can be very good role players. Amen still has a chance to develop a jumper, which is the ONLY thing that's holding him back. But after 2/3 of a season, the likelihood is not good. However, I'd give him one more offseason and see what he can do with it. Sengun is a true enigma. It looks like he can be a great offensive player. He showed real promise two seasons ago. I still don't know what's going on with him not being able to be more efficient in his scoring. Anyway, I am willing to wait one more season to determine who to keep and who to let go. You want to be the team that gets the likes of Harden, SGA, and Hali, not the team that gives them up prematurely. I am getting REALLY impatient with Ime Udoka. I really want to see what a better offensive coach could do with this roster. We talk about how they don't fit well. I still think a good offensive coach can make it work. We've got the needed ingredients. Just need someone to put them together. But what can we do. Udoka is signed to a long guaranteed contract under a cheap owner.
Couldn't agree more, but for some weird reason people seem to treat Amen like a superstar in the making.
Random thought: Do we think there's any possibility whatsoever of getting Jayson Tatum for Sengun + FVV + picks? "Boston has two supermax players" is a thought that keeps floating around in the back of my mind, and Sengun would be a pretty good fit there with all of their other floor spacing and strong perimeter defense. Not something I think is going to happen, but it wouldn't be the craziest trade I've ever seen.
I don't know if he'll ever be a superstar in the traditional "this guy can carry your whole offense" sense, but I do think there's a strong chance he will at least be a #2 option in his prime + elite defense. All this talk about "he's a 4th or 5th option" is ridiculous, the dude can already put up 20+ efficient points basically whenever he wants to/the team actually plays his style of basketball.
More of a technicality as @OremLK pointed out, it's also about finding players. Getting players on rookie contracts, no one will remember SGA played for the Clippers, will be a jeopardy question, he developed at OKC, the core of their team is drafted. I feel like if the core of your team is not drafted good luck. I think there is something to players growing together and growing into their roles together and I do fear this team ruined that with KD coming here. Getting them on rookie and controllable contracts matters too of course but I do think there is something to players growing into their roles together as a team and we just threw this go-to primary scorer into the mix changing the entire dynamic on the team. I'm just agreeing that I do think we should do a reset while we can, get KD out of here, and just move forward with the young guys, see if Amen, Reed, Sengun, can grow into something and build the team around them. The more the season goes on the more I just grow cold on KD being here. Seeing him pout last game and give Amen some BS inbound pass that could have easily been a TO just made me go...yeah..I'm out. Still rooting for the team, always, but not expecting too much with him here and just hope to get some fun playoff series at the most.
We've tried the giant starting 5 lineup with limited shooting and it hasn't worked out at all. I think the blueprint is the Golden State lineup with great perimeter defense and 3 point shooting. Jabari needs to bulk up and play the Al Horford stretch 5 role. Amen can be the Draymond defensive leader on the court. Reed is our Steph. Trade Sengun for a Trey Murphy type knock down shooter.
Long term, Amen and Sengun not performing as well as expected is a much bigger deal long term than the vets not panning out this regular season. Personally, I thought it was a chip shot, thinking at least one of these guys would be a Top 15 player at some point, with a chance of it being this season.
I don’t think Alpi cares about his efficiency say the way that Durant does where he won’t take a lot of threes because he knows it’ll hurt his percentage. I believe that if he did care, then the percentages would increase. If DM was still he would be teaching him that the way he molded Harden. Too bad we’re stuck with real men of genius in emu and stone.
Respectfully, these aren’t a group of young guys resetting a timeline over. Amen isn’t projecting to be a primary option at all, and Reed’s height and frame will always be a hindrance especially in this era. I think trading KD for a much younger guard who can carry a team hoping one shakes loose is the best bet, although I doubt Udoka will ever let that happen. And Giannis isn’t a super likely outcome and doesn’t solve our issues, I have close to zero trust in a KD-Giannis partnership frankly. I don’t think Udoka and his buddies and Stone are going anywhere, so I’m not expecting a sudden leap in talent evaluation or development or coaching either. This isn’t an org that can pluck a Jared McCain out of their hat or build a competent roster even. I know this sounds way too pessimistic, but it might be best for Rockets fans to prime themselves for another rebuild. Or take the hit from the fanbase and see how they look w FVV back, but I have a feeling KD won’t be happy with that.
We do have some possible high lotto picks on the way from Brooklyn, Dallas, maybe Phoenix. Maybe we hit on one of those. As far as Amen and Reed goes, I agree that neither of them currently looks like a #1 option. However, in Amen's case, I can see him becoming a good #2 offensive option who comes kind of close to the overall value proposition of a #1 by way of playing elite defense (i.e. Jimmy Butler when he was still in his prime a few years back). And Reed, provided he can become a passable defensive player, looks like the kind of guy who can fit into pretty much any squad. Same goes for Jabari if his shooting improves just a little bit more. So, that's the case for kind of going back to the drawing board while keeping those three guys, I think.
After next season, he won't be in the NBA, he'll play in China or Siberia. The Euro league wouldn't even want him.
The longer you screw around waiting to evaluate, the more time the league has to evaluate, the less those players are worth. The longer Amen shoots <20% from three, the less likely it is he ever shoots a decent percentage, the lower his value becomes.
Make me the third on this one. There are very few guys who have come into the league with as broken a shot as Amen's, but who later developed into competent shooters. Jason Kidd is one and even before he found a jumper, he was 10x the player Amen was. Shawn Marion is another, but he was never considered the best player on any team he played for - he was always a top-tier role player. But the list of great defenders who never developed a jumper is endless - Stacey Augmon, Andre Robertson, Tony Allen and our own Chuck Hayes are just a few. So I find it really puzzling - and really risky - to even think about building a team around Amen. When people talk about building a fast break, open-court team around Amen, what other teams are they thinking about as a comparison? I can't begin to remember a championship winning team that scored primarily on the break - every one of them primarily relied on half-court offense. Even the Showtime Lakers used Kareem as their primary offensive option, and by that time in his career, he was even slower than Alpi. Fast breaks and open court basketball simply can't be generated enough to win games, especially in the playoffs where everything slows down. And as we've seen, Amen is by far the worst player on our roster at the half-court offense - not only is he unable to generate shots for himself, his mere presence on the court sabotages open looks for everyone else. This was the criticism of him when he was drafted and it's still the truth in his third season. If the Rockets don't believe Sengun is the guy to anchor the half-court offense, that's a fair assessment - he's definitely dropped in efficiency since his injury at the end of 2024 (thanks FVV and Jabari) and since December, he's become one of the least efficient players in the league. To me, it's still a question as to whether we are watching a guy who has permanently lost his mojo or who just needs an offseason with no live games and lots of training to recover. If he's playing injured right now, he should stop and sit for the rest of the season - he shouldn't let our "I never miss the playoffs" coach push him into ruining his career the way Detroit did to Grant Hill. Yes, we'll be stuck playing Jabari at C, but we're not a championship contender this year - who cares? Now if I were running things, I'd be looking at trading Amen for a king's ransom because I think he's our most valuable trading chip (even if he's not our most valuable player). Get ourselves someone with 50-60% of his defense but with an actual jump shot and I think we'd be amazed how much better everything would work. We are expending so much energy on offense due to the constant poor spacing and packed paint, and that means tired legs on both ends of the court. A more efficient offense that generates easy buckets means more energy on defense, and more energy in crunch time.
That might be a recipe to win a lot of regular season games but it's not going to win you a championship. Once the playoffs roll around, the game slows down, teams get back in transition faster, every possession is defended tougher and transition opportunities dry up. Amen has ZERO respect as a shooter, if he's in the corner his defender has one foot in the paint, if he runs the pick and roll, both defenders stay with the roll man and leave him open at the top of the key. I don't believe Amen and Reed synergize well, just because one can shoot and the other is a good defender doesn't mean the sum is going to be greater than the whole. They are both half assed .... I don't see the point of "Building Around" such a flawed player - building around a guy who's your 4th or 5th option seems crazy. And then catering to his strengths in the open court, if a rim run is there great but more often than not, he gets turned back, now you've spent the first 1/3rd of the shot clock. Now let's chuck it to KD or Sengun with 14 on the clock who are probably double teamed ... We've seen it all year, this team struggles to get into it's offense. Much of it because they cater to Amen. Amen's a great athlete, but he's just a role player in the NBA, not a guy you build a team around.
Again, the idea that Amen is a "4th or 5th" option is ludicrous and repeating it over and over again doesn't make it true. The odds are nearly 100% that he will be a 20+ points per game scorer throughout his prime age 25-32 years or so. That is not a 4th or 5th option regardless of whether a guy can jump shoot or not. I see his most likely outcome as a strong #2 option on offense and an elite defensive player. He will be a top 20 player even if he only improves slightly as a jump shooter. Top 10 if he gets to just like, Jimmy Butler's level. Right now on this team he is the #3 option. And no, he doesn't only get his points in transition. Transition buckets account for only 2.6 of his 13.2 shot attempts. He is more of a multi-faceted paint scorer than you're giving him credit for, not just a run and gun dunker. Jump shooting isn't everything, and you're vastly overrating it and vastly underrating the rest of Amen's scoring package. Agree to disagree though I guess.
