Data is objective, analysis is not. Of course my analysis is subjective. I'm analysing the same data OP is presenting. Not denying the data.
If he is indeed half of Steve Nash and Steph Curry then Green would be his Monta Ellis to succeed after. I have a hunch that he is going to be more Combo guard than PG at this point, like who young Eric Gordon was.
Oh I'm sure you've been crushing Santa Clara tape too you part time scout you. That's why you know Nash threatened to quit over his coach not seeing him as the best PG on the team, was offended by the idea that he's not a good enough PG, believed his first coach was flat out treating him unfairly. He was recruited as a PG. That how a true floor general feels. They don't go like "welp I guess I'll be a SG then!" Maybe sometimes good to listen to humans talking to add context to your tape/data.
Regardless of what Reed Sheppard turns into, what is true that he's basically an analytical god this year. The fit with most of our guys is abundantly clear, the upside is kind of the eye of beholder issue so you can make that what you will. He's the guy I'd want certainly, over most non-Saar guys, most of those guys have serious questions too, yeah they could get there but they also might not. I do think going back to the whole BPA vs fit thing, the goal of a team is to win basketball games, the BPA is relevant if that guy has a reasonable chance to be the best player on your team, or your team is just so bad right now that you don't care about the fit yet. otherwise, fit matters, there were a bunch of players in the Warriors run that in a vacuum you'd say is better than Draymond or Klay, but would most likely make the Warriors a worse team if they trade places. At this stage, given most of us agree that like 3 or 4 or even 5 of the guys in our core 6 might be #1 if they go this draft and we just won 41 in a very very tough conference it's hard to make the case that anyone in the general discussion range is a BPA. So fit matters, Clingan brings a different element of fit but I think most people would agree that a 3rd guard's path to real minutes is much higher than that of a pure backup 5, let alone the fact among FVV / Green / Sengun who you think is more likely to stick long term on the team.
I'm more optimistic about Sheppard now than I was a few days ago. His court vision and his entry pass is good. I'm glad his catch and shooting is excellent.
I do think the Front Office is more open to other players and a trade than 55% of fans who would take Sheppard in a heart beat. As they should be.
Reed isn't similar to these guys at all. MacClung was a 31% 3-point shooter, that's even worse than Jalen. Fredette shot 39% from 3 in college. Sheppard shot 52% from 3. Reed Sheppard had about 3x the steals+blocks per game of either of these guys. The combination of 3-point shooting at that level and steals/blocks and elite vertical is historically unique.
52% vs. 41% from 3 4.5 vs 1.9 assists per game 2.5 vs. 1.1 steals per game 0.7 vs. 0.1 blocks per game and that was all in fewer minutes per game, too
I always find it hilarious that a white player absolutely has to be compared to other white players. It's particularly funny given the Rockets literally have a successful comp to him on the roster right now, but he has a different skin tone so the comparison becomes completely invalid in the eyes of some. FWIW I don't see superstar anything and it's kind of absurd to pick him 3rd in a normal draft...but this isn't a normal draft. It's a bunch of mid to late lottery picks we have to choose from. He looks to be the safest, best fit, and does have star upside.
Yeah, I've been saying FVV with better shooting as Sheppard's ceiling for awhile. However, he has quite a bit of development to do in terms of his ball skills and on-ball defense to get there.
Donovan Mitchell and Reed Sheppard had similar jumping numbers. I guess that means they are the same too. Reed actually had much better lane agility numbers fwiw…
Reed Sheppard's ceiling is a more athletic Stephen Curry. Doesn't mean he will reach that ceiling for sure, but if his one-year college production is no fluke, I haven't seen any other player with that kind of potential to be in a similar stratosphere to possibly the best shooter of all time.
If he was indeed "Half Nash and Half Curry" he'd be the unquestionable, no debate #1 pick in the draft. He isn't, so I'd go out on a limb and say that comp is even more ridiculous than "CP3 with a more lethal shot."
It’s not a player comp. I’m pointing out recent examples on the home team of good shooters who were not overly effective players. If you don’t like my posts feel free to not respond to them. I’m sure you have better things to do than read 4 paragraphs.
This is what you said: To me Reed's strengths are shooting and then athleticism that doesn't convert into anything. I just don't believe in Reed's other skills. I think his handle is only going to be good enough to be a combo guard and his small hands are going to cost turnovers in the half court and drives to the basket. Ball slips out of his hands too easily. I think his passing skills are shockingly overrated on this board only - it's as if his father is comparing him to guys who have a 4:1 asst ratio. He's not Steve Nash. It's clear as day, he's not that guy. He's an undersized SG we have to convert into a PG. Combo guards are supposed to be good at both, people seem to think combo guards are half-good at each position. You are analyzing your eye test, not data. You said you don't believe in his other skills. Based on what? All his other skills have impressive data. You said the athleticism wouldn't convert into anything. Based on what? His defensive data are very impressive. Maybe it has nothing to do with his athleticism. But you never mention about it. You said his passing skills were shockingly overrated. Based on what? His assists numbers says otherwise. Why is it so shocking that people look at his number and conclude he has good passing skills? The only "data" you used was an exaggerated 4:1 asst ratio that he didn't have. But which great passer had that ratio in college? Did you know that Steve Nash (which you said Reed was clear as day not) had an asst ratio of 1.5:1? in college? Did you know that John Stockton had a ratio of 1.9:1 in college? Sheppard's ratio was 2.25:1 as a freshman. Did you analyze that data? You said people seem to think combo guards are half-good at each position. Based on what data do you think Reed is half good at each position? The only real data you used was his hand size.
For those complaining Reed is a combo guard, being a combo guard is not an issue when the offense is run through the 5. The main thing we need out of him is to be able to 1) play defense: ✓ and 2) hit open threes: ✓. Those are his strengths. He is perfect for this team.
