This is an example excellent point and one I have tried to make concerning Alpren Sengun. When a player is very highly skilled at a young age and has an excellent IQ for the game - it makes it a lot easier for them to improve and improve in a more linear manner. We see it with Sengun, saw it with Harden and Bird and Luka. Sheppard has a high level skill set and a strong basketball IQ. He is unlikely to struggle as much as raw or medium level basketball IQ guys.
The one thing that keeps me from being on board is that I've only seen fans talk about Sheppard as being a good/great passer that clearly can be a starting PG in the NBA. As in I have yet to read any scouting report from major public analysts/scouts who claim this. This is one of those things where IF it's general consensus that Sheppard projects to be even an average playmaking PG in the NBA, then he should be mocked everywhere to go #2 to Washington, and would've been a #1 candidate if Atlanta doesn't already have Trae. And that the Rockets wouldn't even be in consideration to draft him.
His quick decision making, ball movement, transition passing and vision are some of the consistent positives I've seen in his scouting videos.
Who are the major analysts/scouts you're referring to? I'm fairly certain guys like Hollinger, Vecenie (and Bryce), KOC, No Ceilings, Hoop Intellect, etc have all generally though highly of Reed's passing, vision, and feel. I think there are some concerns about his self creation and ball handling (i.e., picking up the ball too much) among some, but I'm not sure I've seen anyone strongly suggest he couldn't play PG due to his lack of passing ability. (I can grab links and quotes later if you'd like...my memory did fail me earlier, so *maybe* I'm wrong)
Aside from picking up the ball a bit too early and generally playing for safer passes in the half court (which makes the fact that he still leads the team in assists even more amazing. ) he also doesn't pass very well one-handed on the move, like for all the crap we give Jalen his best pass is a live dribble pocket pass and that is something Reed doesn't show much right now. However, I think that could be learned, and also one of his major selling points is that even if he doesn't learn he's still super useful in other ways. He might be more of a Jeremy Lin type of point guard (i.e he can't really kill you in straight-up iso against primary but operates very well in pick and rolls.) but if he's that with his jump shot that's massive. It's not like Fred Van Vleet is this kill guys in straight-up iso guy either, there aren't nearly as many of those guys around anyway.
I think the thing with Reed Sheppard is: he is quick and has a good handle, but he is clearly a tier below other smallish really effective guards like Trae Young or Steph Curry. So he is not the one who will break his man down one on one and then pass to the open man or create his own shot. He needs something to create shots - either a screen or a defensive mix up or anything like that. If he would be able to do that, I think we'd be talking about a clear #1 prospect, despite his size. Topic can do that - but he can't shoot very well and also plays subpar defense. I really like both as a prospect and usually you would say the one with the measurements that can also create shots has the higher upside. But there is something about Sheppard that really intrigues me - his shooting, feel for the game, sneaky athleticism and defensive intensity. Right now I am more and more worried, that Sheppard goes #2.
The thing about the draft is there are players that never develop, instant contributors and players that take longer but you could see their progress.... Sounds like Shepp is the instant contributor with a high floor but limited ceiling because he is already so good. Amen is already decent but can become much much better.
Nook I think when discussing young players who are ahead of their time, they're not talking about 20 years olds (Sheppard will be 20 in June) where he's rarely the youngest person on the court. They're usually talking about the 18 year olds who are already successfully playing mind games against professional veterans. Those are special ones. Sengun at 18 was already the MVP of a top 3 league in the world playing almost entirely with and against professional veterans. Luka is the classic example of course. I think that's a difference worth noting. I don't think it's fair to put Reed in the same category as Sengun as a prodigy. Not to say Reed is not highly skilled for his age.
…wait what… he’s still 19 and only a year older than Sengun when he was drafted. Sengun turned 19 in July Shep turns 20 in June. It’s not a 2 year + difference like you imply. Main difference is Sengun was able to play in a pro league at 16 vs Sheppard having to just play HS ball. I would say other than that they are very similar in that they are highly skilled with extremely high bball IQ for their age
For those of y'all not considering Clingan, I think y'all should go watch his highlights reel displaying his defensive impact on the game along with his ability to finish around the rim. Then, imagine him on the defensive end alongside Amen. Then, on the offensive end running the pnr with Amen. If your imagination isn't going wild with what those two would become you may not know basketball as well as you think. Thompson & Clingan would very quickly become a household name.
I dont see what would be so great about them in the pnr. Neither one is a threat to shoot the ball from distance. That would make a pnr between those two pretty easy to defend.
Dude you're mixing two things up: - Sengun was MVP of a league that's considered the best outside the NBA and Spain by most American scouts. That means starting at age 17 he's crushing professional players while Reed at 19 is crushing 19-22 year old American college players. This is to address the idea that Shepard is a similar prodigy. Can't be considered a prodigy if you're just a 19 year old beating other 19/20 year olds. - In age yes of course Sheppard is younger. The difference is only 2 years. However Sheppard is a standard age for an NBA draft. He's not one of the youngest. I haven't looked it up for this draft but a guy imminently turning 20 tends to be the 10th-15th youngest in the draft. To put that into perspective, Bari/Green/Sengun/Cam were all drafted younger than him. This should be somewhat of a positive for Reed though, he's not a natural talent or elite vision guy, it's good he chose to polish his skills. People have different paths to greatness and that's fine.
