It's so funny how our own fans trade picks and prospects away like candy while that practically never happens in the NBA. What trades have happened that have 3 good prospects with potentially all star level production AND 2 great picks? That is like offering 4 great first round picks and one mediocre one. Who's ever been traded for 4 good to great first round picks and one mediocre one? Has never happened. Our 3 worst prospects would be top 10 in this draft. However, WE have to be "realistic" and trade all that for a guy who's first 3 years were insanely similar to Green's first 3 years and he's not even a top 10 NBA player. People think if they call something realistic, it makes them seems reasonable. That's not realistic at all. If it's going to take 3 of Orlando's core 6 plus a top 10 pick plus a future pick >> let the Magic have it. If Booker couldn't get it done with Beal and Durant, he's not getting it done with Banchero and Cole Anthony or whatever the hell is left over after they trade 3 prospects. If the Spurs will trade 4 unprotected picks and 1 protected one, let them have it. I would love for that to happen. Do you really think Ime Udoka is going to trade Jalen Green AND Jabari AND Whitmore AND a top 10 pick AND a future pick for Devin Booker? Ime Udoka most likely believes he can make Jalen Green better than Devin Booker if their first 3 seasons are eerily similar - even their scoring efficiency. Do you know how often in his first 3 years Suns fans wanted to bail on Booker because he's a score-first SG with a low IQ who has incredible peaks but disappears far too often especially against good teams and was too scrawny to finish well at the rim? Now you want to trade one of the biggest hauls of the decade for him. And that's not crazy? Get a grip on reality guys. For that trade package I better be getting Kevin Durant under 30 years old. Btw Orlando is not trading 3 prospects as good as ours and 2 good picks for him. They might trade their Cole Anthony's and Jonathan Suggs' but they are not trading Franz Wagner and more prospects and more picks for Devin Booker. What the Suns would ask for on the first phone call is NOT what's realistic. What on earth happened to the days where the board was filled with homers and you had to tell them to be more objective. Things have swing so insanely in the other direction, we're at the point where so many fans value our own prospects to be worse than any other team or players or media rates them. How can we have the worst opinion of our own prospects. Find a middle ground.
How many spots can we advance in this year’s weak draft by moving Tate & 9/10? (Set him free, and thank him for his service, Mr. Tate, you are a class act, great player and wonderful person). We are a full sized team now and Tate’s role is redundant now with the growth of our youth. Tate has worked hard on his shooting and there is a place for him on most teams. Rotation worthy.
I don’t think Tate has much value outside of salary matching on a larger trade. A scenario where a team trades back is going to be more along the lines where the player they wanted got taken the spot ahead of them (let’s say #6). They might want to trade back because they don’t think the player they have ranked next best is not worth that pick. So why would they take on $7m in Tate to move back a few spots instead of just taking that player?
Franz is better than Jalen right now on both ends. Better defense, better rebounding, better rim finishing, similar assists on lower usage and fewer turnovers. The only edge Jalen has is 3P% and even then, their career numbers are similar (though granted Franz takes fewer shots). So Franz clearly has a higher floor--he is already a high-level starter on a fringe contender. Ceiling is an interesting question. Franz is much bigger relative to his position (6'10" playmaking small forward), Jalen is much more athletic (can create space against anyone and blow by most players in single coverage). I think Jalen probably has a slightly higher ceiling on offense, but a much lower ceiling on defense. Overall maybe you could call the ceiling question a draw. But as they are right now, Franz has the higher floor.
I do not think you can call the ceiling question a draw. There is no world in which Franz is capable of doing what Jalen did in March of this year. Otherwise I agree with everything else you said here.
On offense, I agree, and traditionally a #1 option type of scorer is the most valuable thing in the NBA. However, I personally don't think there's a world where Jalen makes all-defensive teams, and I could see Franz working his way onto a couple if he continues to improve. That's why I called their ceilings a draw--Jalen has the edge on offensive potential, but Franz has a clear advantage on defense. It may depend on how much you weigh the value of good defense. Jimmy Butler has arguably been a top 15 player in recent years, for example, as a guy who I don't consider a traditional #1 option on offense.
You wildly underrate Devin Booker. He’s 27, a top 10 player (top 12 at worst), on a long term non supermax contract, and fits with any team in the league. In terms of players I’d want to add to a team, taking into account ability, age, contract, playstyle, and scalability - for me it’s Jokic, Wemby, Ant, Shai, Tatum, Booker, Hali in that order, then everyone else. Players like this essentially never get traded because their value so far outweighs older stars, or young prospects, or any draft pick. If any one of the Rockets core 6 gets to Booker’s level we’ll be extremely lucky. Most likely they will not. Almost all very good prospects do not become top 10 players who make first team All NBA by their mid 20s… that’s just the truth. AD was traded for two high level prospects, another good young player, and the full boat of picks. Booker is clearly a more valuable trade piece than any other player traded in the last 10 years. Given their respective contract situations (AD was expiring), you could even argue Booker is a more valuable trade asset than AD was at the time. And the Lakers won that trade.
Disagree with you on Booker and our core. He's mostly not ranked as a top 10 player and I agree with that. Top 12 yes he's probably in there. That doesn't justify trading 4 good to great picks and a Rockets pick. We tanked to get a Devin Booker at least. I can't possibly agree with you that of the 6 core players none of them have a chance to have the impact of Devin Booker or that we would be very lucky. That's like saying the whole rebuild failed, you took 9 shots in the first round and a few at the top of the draft and you didn't get one top 12 player. This is a very pessimistic view of our core imo. I don't share it.
Ja Under no circumstances am I trading Amen, Sengun, or Jabari. For Booker, because of his age and consistency I would give up either Jalen or Cam and 3 picks not the 25 Nets pick. I think the Suns would get more, but that would be my limit. If were talking Durant, I would at the max give up Tari and a couple of picks. I really don’t think Booker will be available, so we are probably just spitting in the wind.
It's not pessimistic, it's realistic. If you're the GM you can't be a homer. You have to have some sense of probability. Not "they will be this" or "they won't be that" I think Sengun or Amen *might* become top 10 players, but might = something like 15-20% for Sengun and 5-10% for Amen. I don't think Jalen, Jabari, Tari, or Cam have much meaningful top 10 player equity, maybe 1-2% each. That I think is not a pessimistic or optimistic evaluation, just a realistic one. It's really really hard to be a top 10 player. Jokic, Luka, Shai, Wemby, Ant, Tatum, Booker, Brunson, Embiid, Haliburton, AD, Giannis. You have to be better than at least 3 of these guys over the next 5 years. It's just fundamentally unlikely for anyone who isn't in that group today. Top 10 players win you NBA championships. Teams without them don't. 2 or 3 of Jalen/Tari/Cam/Jabari + the Brooklyn picks add up to not much top 10 player equity. Booker is 100% top 10 player equity, on a long term non-supermax. If Stone and Witus had the opportunity to make that deal they would call it in to the league office instantly.
I think Jabari requires the least promise to be a useful player though just based on his archetype. Jabari doesn't have to be that good to be useful. Guys with length who can defend multiple positions and make catch-and-shoot 3s are desired by literally every team in the league. Even if he doesn't develop any kind of handle and doesn't improve his post up/midrange game, he can always just be Trevor Ariza. So even if he doesn't pan out the way we probably want him to, he's a useful player no matter what. The same can't be said for Jalen, Sengun, or Amen.
I think Green and Sengun might become top 10 type players and guys like Amen, Jabari, Can etc can't because of the concept of ball skills and coordination. An ability to self. Rsste against half court defenses loaded up on you rather than just taking advantage of unset defenses is probably the most important part about being a star. There are ultra utility players who Amen can be.
I would say Alpi, Amen, and Jalen in that order of the odds of getting there. None of them has a high chance individually though, it's really, really hard to become a top 10 player, obviously. As far as Amen, he flashes elite paint scoring potential, but needs to develop his ballhandling and some kind of usable jump shot (even if it's never good). His physical attributes are even better than Jalen's and he's a future All-Defense guy.
I'll be honest. I was being an ass with that poster by just making arbitrary cut off of who has top 10 potential. In reality I think Amen, Jalen and Sengun are the three guys that have top 10 potential because all 3 have unicorn abilities. Amen with his agility at his height makes him a dpoy ceiling player. Sengun with his balance and coordination at his size and passing ability Green with his coordination and agility with the ball in his hands at his height Those three guys are the three guys with some form of a "unicorn" trait.
"Has top 10 potential" is a not a particularly meaningful statement. There's 100+ under-23 players in the world who "have top 10 potential", meaning their likelihood of being a top 10 player is non zero. Every member of the Rockets core 6 "has top 10 potential". 19 year old Jokic was a doughy unathletic second round pick playing for Mega and had top 10 potential. Brunson was a 24 year old 2nd year second round pick averaging 8 ppg off the bench and had top 10 potential. The meaningful question is what's the actual probability you think someone has of becoming a top 10 player? Is it 1%? 10%? 90%? For Jokic and Brunson it was certainly low single digits %... sometimes those longshots hit. There's 100 other players who were at a similar point and didn't make it to the level they did. Our FO has to constantly estimate that probability, for our players and every player in the world, and make clear eyed decision based on that. Over the next 4-6 years (the time we have them under team control), I said I think it's something like: Sengun 15-20% Amen 5-10% Jalen 3-5% Jabari 1-2% Cam 1-2% Tari 1-2% If you disagree tell me what you think your estimates are, or what you think the FO's estimates are. Keep in mind that there's only 10 spots, and 6 or 7 of them are close to 100% locked in already (Jokic, Luka, Shai, Wemby, Ant, Tatum, Giannis).
Brandon Ingram a very likely trade candidate in the last year of his deal, according to Sam Vaccine. And the Pels GM’s comments seem indicate that changes are coming. Assuming Zion is off the table, are folks interested in Ingram? He misses at least 20 games a season, but when he does play he’s gonna give you 23/5/5 on 36-37% 3pt shooting. Not sure about his defense. I do wish he was a little more physical as a player. The reoccurring injury issues scare me. I don’t know about his basketball mentality either. But he’s long, ridiculously talented, and still only 26. He won’t command what some other all star caliber guys will because he only has 1 yr left and his availability issues. Not sure we need another wing. Thoughts?
Not much of a fan but I think he is a Top 25-28 ish player in the league......depending what you would give up. The Pels would be pretty dumb to give up on him though given that they do not have a young star in the making. (Herb and Murphy are good players but not great ones) If you can sell them on Jalen Green.....I do not know. It would be more lateral move (worse record) for the Pels though in the short run.....and the Rox might make 46-50 Wins.
