I would pay Jalen about 12 - 15M per year based on his inability to remain consistent. He's probably best served as a 6th man sparkplug, and could be a perennial 6th man candidate if left in that position, but the Rockets need someone starting who locks in on both sides of the ball and can pull defenders off Sengun by hitting the 3 at about 40%. With FVV a very solid distributor and excellent defender but a poor shooter you cannot have Jalen out there shooting like he does. Two poor 3 pt shooters in the back court are causing Sengun to get double and triple teamed consistently. That issue has to be fixed this off-season and I highly doubt a summer of practice is enough time to fix Green's issues.
Agree 100%. The team needs a reliable 3 pt. shooter who will prevent opponents from packing the paint and focusing only on stopping Sengun because they don't respect the current Rockets shooters.
The Rockets offense statistically does best with FVV and then Green as the highest on/off offensive efficiency out of the starters for the season. I wonder if people like you actually know this. Green is by no means a negative floor spacer. Sengun is however.
That's a reasonable contract, and around what the 6th man of the year makes. I agree that a 6th man player contract is reasonable. VanVleet actually averaged 38.7 from behind the arc, which is way way better than Jalen, but he's no threat taking it to the rim. Now, if Fred had a much better 3 PT shooter than Jalen to pass to, who can score well inside, and has good passing skills, we'd be a much bigger threat. It would also open up more plays for Sengun. I have higher expectations of Amen, Jabari, and Cam taking it up a couple notches this year than Jalen. I think we would be bigger contenders if we sign a better starting SG, draft a couple future guard replacements this year and next with our top picks, and move Jalen to the bench as 6th man.
Random stat. Jalen Green last March shot 165 total 2 pointers. Mathews has shot 179 total 2's, his entire 5 year career combined. 90% of his FG's are 3's, and assisted on 90% of his makes. The Duncan Robinson 1-dimensional special. Mathews & Bruno Fernando were essentially traded for 2 (late) second round picks. Good transaction value considering they were street free agents flipped for actual picks. But still, probably a thing where it mighta been better to just keep them. Bruno is more playable than Boban. Mathews does about what Bullock does. But oh well now
There isn't just "one thing" this team needs to be able to contend. The only "one-thing" would be if they traded for a megastar. Even then, you gut your team to get that megastar so that's not even true. Look at the Timberwolves now.... continue the path of the build, and supplement with a veteran or two here and there. Conley and Gobert are a big part of that step up. The Gobert trade was insane, but it does go to show that future picks if you have the young talent already... might be the expendable area to make a push over time. Stay the course... don't get sucked into the "Star Chasing bullsh$t". -Sign Sengun & Jalen to team friendly-ER extensions -Sengun works on his Defensive abilities & shooting -Jalen works on his play making & 3 point shot -Sign another good vet role player or two this offseason (maybe Eric Gordon farewell tour....) -Cam work on passing/play-making -Amen working on shooting -Tari getting healthy -Jabari getting stronger -etc etc etc It's ALOT of little things that'll end up being on BIG thing in a couple seasons, or maybe even next season. If the Rockets weren't in the STACKED West I would say this team will be a contender in 2 to 3 seasons. However we have an incredibly stacked West.... BUT the good news is IF we can get good contracts put in place long term there is a window where stars in the West will be aging out of the league in 2 to 3 years. So getting these extensions right will make a huge difference in the longevity of our ability to contend when we have the ability to contend.
We already have a surplus in backup centers. Bruno is not the rim protector people want. And we already have a lob threat in Amen Thompson. Agreed about Mathews. He would be about the same as Bullock. If he's hot, he can provide some shooting. If he's not, he can sit and we don't lose much.
Last season they had some good growth and development of key pieces for the future. Green was able all year to be a positive outside of scoring. It was actually his offensive game that really hurt his WAR, but he’s skilled enough to make adjustments for that. Sengun took a step towards being an all-star level player. Jabari Smith continued his steady uptick towards Mr. Fundamental basketball. As he adds strength to his frame, he’s going to be a stalwart PF. He can shoot, he can rebound, he can play defense, and he lets the game flow as the coach called it. Amen Thompson proved that experts on draft day play a guessing game too, they may have the luxury of gong to see these players pre draft workouts, interview them, etc. But at the end of the day, a lot of the so called pundits are fanboys too, because they pick their favorites in unorthodox ways and then they double down to prove how smart they are. Amen Thompson is going to be at least the second best player from this draft, and may end up becoming the face of the Houston Rockets. The man is an overall basketball savant. He needs to fix his 3 point shot, and if he does, he’s going to win a few MVP of the league awards. This season the Rockets need to turn their Nets draft pick into a 3 point specialist. They need to have two guys on the court at all times that can shoot 3 pointers at near 40%. I’m thinking that Jabari Smith has potential to be a 39-42% 3 point specialist.
It would be more informative if you provide the variables that validate that 'highest on/off offensive efficiency". Just looking at numbers that do not provide any context is misleading and the win/loss results show that there is something missing in the numbers that you posted. Assigning statistical numbers without context when it involves a dynamic endeavor among humans needs controlled variables. The way opponents defend the Rockets do not show what you are asserting, and the final results show that. We see a lot of statistics all over the place from different sources with no regard for the methodology, variables, and allowance for differentials. In other words, the validity of the statistics is also all over the place. Just a word of caution when using statistical analysis without context. In summary, Sengun is only a negative spacer because Green and company can't shoot from 3 reliably.
So Sengun can shoot threes? You don't think someone who does triple pump fakes on wide open jumpers with no defender in a 5 ft radius impacts spacing negatively? Green is someone opposing defenses have the fear of God in if they see his first couple of threes made because they know Jalen is streaky and they know he's capable of doing something like making 4 straight threes in a quarter and blow up the game. No one fears Sengun or Amen doing that. Those are the guys who impact spacing the worst. I'm using on/off impact from cleaning the glass which does a better job of eliminating noise like garbage time stats. Opposing teams don't want Green to get in a rhythm with his three. They defend him as if he can be dangerous from three unlike guys like Amen or Sengun who they don't fear at all even if they make one or two.
That's what you think, but just look how opponents' defenses are structured when playing the Rockets. I don't recognize any fear of Jalen in the way they defend. Maybe, in March, but otherwise, where has Jalen been throughout the rest of the season?
Maybe you have bad eyes? Maybe you saw some Twitter clips of a couple of possessions that made you think it's a every possession occurrence? You want me to spam you clips of a Green Sengun Pnr where they just ignore Sengun in the short roll and blitz Green? Didn't Ime say during even Green's worse offensive stretch of the season that opposing teams are putting their best perimeter defenders on Green?
If Cam and Jabari improve their percentages and Sengun gets somewhat average at it I believe shooting will be much less of a problem. However, we'd still need more consistency from Jalen. Don't shoot horrible and keep being a good to great slasher and all will be good.
Once again, just like what I said about posting statistics without context, one may provide countless clips of certain plays, but clips do not provide context. So much for these exchanges when we cannot understand the use of context.
It just so happens that he dislikes Jalen but both of them are pretty similar players, one is a better playmaker, the other the better scorer. Both are somewhat street ballers who were used to getting their numbers. With the exception that Green is lucky to learn from Udoka....
You don't pay below average SGs big money - if Jalen wants to sign for below $20m a year - you take the shot as that contract can be moved, if not, you say prove it, and if he hasn't by the trade deadline you jettison him for what you can get. DD
