The writing is on the wall. This is a valid thread. I’m up for some trades if it means a quick rebuild back into contention.
Rot takes awhile to set in. The day Luhnow left, we were set on this trajectory. The remnants of Luhnow are still paying off four years later. He signed Blanco for crying out loud. Julio Robaina and Brayan de Paula looking good in Corpus. Both picked up by Luhnow. You can't just replace a generational genius at GM with a three headed monster of Bagwell, Jackson and Crane sorting through the backs of baseball cards
You're entitled to your opinion, however saying "the odds are against them" when there's still 138 games to play (.85 % of the season) seems to be jumping the gun.
I’m only referencing the statistics published by a reputable website which shows the % chance of the Astros making the playoffs based on decades of historical data and tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of simulations. It’s not really my opinion.
Understood. Just think it's way too early. I think we're all in agreement that we hope they turn things around (and soon).
FanGraphs has the odds at a smidge below 50% of making the playoffs based on the current format which has only 1 year of precedence, the hole the Astros have dug themselves, and the strength of the Astros and their opponents. It is definitely an opinion that one is looking at throwing in the towel on the current odds of the Astros making the playoffs. Maybe there are some odds out there that are a little less, but 5.5 games is not an unsurmountable climb for a team with as many good players as the Astros.
It's so weird that we have a tad bit better postseason odds as the 16-8 Yankees currently on BBREF. We just need to go on a 3 week hot streak. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-playoff-odds.shtml MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2024-04-23. This page does not update during the postseason.
The fangraphs % is the reflection of 20,000 simulations based on an algorithm using criteria established from analyzing decades of data. You can call it opinion, as you could for any statistic involving a selected sample used to generate a forecasted number, but to me that’s picking nits. There’s no meaningful difference to me between “48% chance” and “5.5 games is not an insurmountable climb…”. I haven’t said anything about Houston throwing in the towel now. I said it was looking like a lost season, which it is based on their actual record and current odds. Season wins futures betting odds are closed, but the Astros Vegas odds to win the division have fallen below both Seattle and Texas, which would align logically with fangraphs playoff percentage number. I wasn’t necessarily making a prediction that Houston will miss the playoffs, just pointing out that their performance has been bad enough that missing the playoffs has now become more likely than not, as way to justify beginning to discuss the topic of the Astros being deadline sellers.
By the 40 game mark, 25% of the season, the team must have most of the issues behind them or else start thinking about 2025. By then, Framber could be back and a timetable for Urquidy's return. Abreu could be gone, on IL, or firmly on the bench as less than 25% starter. Most hitting slumps could be in the rearview mirror. "The big 3" can stack good appearances over several games. Let's see what 3 weeks brings us.
It's weird that you consider a team that's being given the 4th best odds to win the World Series right now by betting markets (behind the Dodgers, Braves, and Yankees) to be "looking like a lost season" in April.
The 2019 Nationals won the World Series and were 16-24 at the 40 game mark and had just lost 6 of their last 8 games - I suspect they are glad they didn't give up on their season at that point. The 2021 Braves were 19-21. I don't think either team "had most of their issues behind them" at that point. The Braves went 20-20 over their next 40 games, for example. The Rangers never fixed their bullpen issues all of last season and won the WS as the last team into the playoffs. All you have to do is stay close enough in the race to make a run in August and September.
Can't argue with that logic. Except you reference 3 of the literally hundreds of teams in that situation. At that point the odds are significantly stacked against a championship.
I’m surprised that line hasn’t moved more. That’s certainly a reason for hope. In that spirit, and for the purpose of getting the thread back on topic, here is a hypothetical trade for Houston to make if they are still in contention at the deadline: Astros get: IF Luis Arraez IF Jake Burger Marlins get: OF Kenedy Corona RHP AJ Blubaugh OF Pedro Leon IF Will Wagner
There’s absolutely zero chance the Yankees take on that much payroll, while already in the luxury tax, for a bunch of crap.
It’s definitely the least realistic of everything I posted, and the one I thought about the least. There’s probably a big variance in surplus value for all those pitchers. Montero has looked roughly worth his contract so far this year, Pressly has terrible top line numbers but his underlying numbers still look good, and Urquidy has been hurt. It’s possible that those 3 guys will have enough surplus value to offset all but $10M of Abreu’s contract. But I agree it’s probably unlikely; I’m not sure about what the Yankees self imposed payroll limitations might be, but they could technically afford it.
Potential trade fits: Bregman: Cubs, Mets, Brewers Tucker: Dodgers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Padres, Brewers Verlander/Valdez: Orioles, Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Mets
The Astros were very lucky to win in 2022, one title was enough for Crane to turn into the Jerry Jones of Baseball.
Internally maybe But there is no chance they move any of our top players until the deadline, even if the results stay terrible Crane wouldn't let Brown tear it down at the 40 game mark, or the 80 game mark for that matter
