That's how it will work, depending on who is selected. But thinking we have a 1 out of 4 chance is much more fun.
They have a sequence, I am sure they check first if someone outside of the Worst 4 snuck into the Top 4 first before dealing with the best odds.
I have edited my post because it was not the exact math. It was to give the view that the odds doesn't stack. Of course after draws happen it changes the landscape, but in average we still have around 6% of it happening.
Well technically 27.4% ............and 6% chance at #1 #9 Brooklyn pick 20.3 %.....................................................4.5% (chance at #1) #12 Thunder pick (top 4 protected to Hou) 7.1%,............1.5% (chance at #1) Draft is rigged though,....will it let the Thunder be #1 seed in West and take home a draft pick outside of #4? What do you think @Aruba77 ? I say Houston ends up with #4 (2.1% chance) and #9
I'm too lazy to do the math, so I just simulated the lottery a million times and the odds were a bit lower... 26.4%. Which makes sense, because the Rockets landing in the top 4 affects the odds of the Nets' pick landing in the top 4. There's also a 1% chance that we get TWO top 4 picks! Yeah, slow day at work.
Probability A or B = probability A (nets top 4 chance ) + probability B (rockets top 4 chance ) - probability A and B (rockets and nets top 4 pick) I’m a stats nerd tho , not a probability nerd
If this is going to be a bad draft, is there really a difference of players between picks 1 through 9? We should just go for BPA at the pick, right?
I believe our odds increase if Atlanta or Chicago make the playoffs. Cheer on the winner of their game to make the 8th seed! This video talks about it at around 12 minutes.
I think the key is under this scenario. There are a lot of scenarios. If my memory serves, the calculation for what are the odds the Rockets get at least 1 Top 4 pick is 1-(odds Nets pick doesn't get 1st pick times odds Rockets pick doesn't get 1st pick ......times...... repeat for 2nd pick and 3rd pick...times... odds Nets pick doesn't get 4th pick times odds Rockets pick doesn't get 4th pick). This would give the Rockets just under 25% to get at least 1 Top 4 pick.
My attempt: Per Tankathon, the independent odds of the Brooklyn pick being top 4 are 20.3%, and for our pick being top 4 they are 7.1%. Thus, P(Neither Pick Being Top 4) = (1 - P(BKN Pick Top 4)) x (1 - P(HOU Pick Top 4)) P(Neither Pick Being Top 4) = (1-0.203)*(1-0.071) P(Neither Pick Being Top 4) = 0.74 P(Either Pick Being Top 4) = 1 - 0.74 = 26% Similarly, both picks being top 4: 20.3% x 7.1%. = 1.4%
Does anyone know how the league office actually does the draw? Do they just run a program that does all the random assigning in one big move? Do they randomly pick the #1 first, then move downward through the others? Or does Adam Silver just sit down at his desk and decide who gets what after giving the Spurs the top pick again?
