Garcia has great stuff regardless. He’s also built like a tank and hopefully the reconstructed elbow has the usual shelf life of most UCL repairs. The biggest question about LMJ is what his aresenal will be. Will he be able to let it rip like he did in 2021? Or will he be the junk-ball/finesse pitcher he was in 2022? (Which many suspected was because he was adjusting due to his torn flexor that he tried to avoid surgery on). It’s literally like Ricky Vaughn between Major League 1 and Major League 2 (barf). The guy in ML 2 was also concerned about diversifying his profile… which LMJ has done a great job as a barista now.
To win a series at home against the Rangers is huge. I'm not sure what this team's problem with playing at home has been, but hopefully this is a step in the right direction. Hopefully the pitchers recover quickly. Theoretically, we have a strong staff. Also batting with RISP finally took an uptick.
Ronel Blanco has the second lowest expected wOBA in baseball with min 250 pitches thrown. That group includes Tyler Glasnow.
How do the analytics skeptic crowd like Bagwell et al square Altuve in their minds? He went from being a AAAA player to a Hall of Famer by striking out more, putting the ball in play less, being less aggressive on the base paths, looking for the homer. All the **** they hate.
That’s not really the analytics Bagwell is consistently ranting about…he hates all the advanced metrics like xFIP and expected BA. Altuve also put up 5.2, 4.4, 7.2 WAR seasons before his K rate started to increase and the running game slowly decreased so not sure he was exactly an AAAA player…
2012 Baseball Prospectus: Altuve is a pint-sized second baseman who was good enough to spark some Rafael Belliard comparisons last summer; he\'ll have to fill out a bit if he wants to be compared to David Eckstein. Unlike Belliard, however, Altuve can\'t really handle short, which means he won\'t have much use to a big-league team unless he can hit well enough to play second everyday. Don\'t count on it, but root for him—if he makes it, he\'d be the shortest middle infielder since Freddie Patek in the \'70s.
On Altuve, the 5.2, 4.4, and 7.2 WAR numbers were when he was a baby. I think Screaming Fist was pointing out that Altuve has appeared to embrace analytics as he's become much more patient as he ages, and really goes hog wild on taking mistake pitches and pulling them in the air. His embracing analytics is throwing off the analytics aging curves, though.
A traditional scout's nightmare... 2013 BP: you won't find Altuve on any Top 100, and many Astros-specific lists will barely mention him either. The problem is he's listed at five-foot-five, and that's generous. That's his NBA height, if you will. Because of that, scouts understandably have a difficult time wrapping their heads around him. Because of that, scouts understandably have a difficult time wrapping their heads around him. He's certainly adorable, like an athletic teddy bear, but there is no modern precedent for a player of his stature. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/player/55877/jose-altuve/
We are several weeks into the season and Jake Meyers is 4th on the team in expected wOBA. Maybe make him a starter, Espada?
Basically, I think Altuve is the poster boy for the analytics movement of his day. He is the example everyone should point to of why a more rigorous, scientific approach to baseball operations is superior to the older ways of doing things. He is a refutation of every lazy crack about "I want exit velo not exit hits..." "I want the line drive hitter, the guy who can spread it around over the guy looking to hit a homer every AB...." and all that other garbage we've heard on broadcasts and elsewhere ad nauseum over the years. Nope...this **** actually does matter.
...but it still takes some competent decision-making on when to go for the high-variance, high-ceiling approaches as opposed to the low-variance, high-floor approaches.
I don’t see the conventional approach as being subject to less variance. Indeed, I would think injecting the fielding element would add even more variance as compared to a more “modern” TTO approach.
Yeah, I know how he was regarded coming up. I’m saying he didn’t start “hunting HRs, striking out more and being less aggressive on the base paths” until well after he was already successful as a MLB player. His lowest K rates of his career came during those seasons I mentioned, beginning in 2014 (5.2 WAR) when he stole a career high 56 bases and had the lowest K rate of his career. The biggest change he made was improving his plate discipline and waiting for “his pitch” to do damage. I don’t think that goes against philosophy held by the Bagwell, Dusty, etc. crowd.
