It really isn't 200 innings though. They lost like 185 innings between Neris, Maton and Stanek. They added Hader and he gives you about 60 innings. So that leaves like 125 innings that need to be made up, That is still a lot of innings to make up, but that is not 200 innings.... They also should have Urquidy back, Luis Garcia will be back in July.... Spencer Arrighetti will be called up at some point in May most likely.... Penn Murfee will be back, Bennett Sousa and others too. They certainly are going to need a solid middle reliever to emerge internally, but I wouldn't go as far as calling it "outright negligence".
Montero already is on the Astros - and has upside, and has been a big time performer for the Astros before. I don't think they would sign him as a free agent at his current contract, but they looked into moving him and the cost is too high. Mushinski makes the league minimum, and made the team, in part because they have 9 pitchers on their 40 man that are on the IL. They need for some internal options under long term team control to emerge - for this all to keep working.
I get emotional concerning the teams I follow at times. I will walk that statement back to borderline negligence. But as you point out, the FO knew their was a 125 inning problem and did nothing.
I agree - it is certainly dicey. They lose someone like Valdez or Verlander and they are in trouble. Ultimately they decided they would rather have Hader than two middle relievers.
I expect some regresssion in Verlander due to age, but come on....a problem? That's a little on the pessimistic side even for you.
In all seriousness, if Whitley can be 80% of what they thought he could be... it solves a lot of issues.
I expect Verlander, Urquidy, Garcia, and McCullers to pitch over 100 more innings as a group for the Astros than they did last year with a large portion of that being Verlander. I just can't see the Astros adding middle relievers when the Astros may have 8-9 SPs pitchers fighting for their spot in the rotation come the trade deadline with the losers eating up the vast majority of the middle relief innings. And if they don't, then there is the trade deadline. Odds are something bad will happen to the Astros. Maybe the pitchers don't get healthy. Maybe Abreu just is no longer playable as a 1B. I think wasting bullets on a likely shortlived problem would be unwise when the Astros don't know what is going to be a problem later in the season. Edit: I do think Alvarez and the Astros hitters will heat up (with consistency) at some point making the Astros middle reliever "problem" a moot point.
For context, my pessimism is aimed mostly at the state of our middle relief staff. If that problem is addressed properly, you might start calling me an optimist
This is the tact that the GM decided to take. He kept some powder dry for the trade deadline to address what needs to be addressed. If the Astros make the post season and are relatively healthy, their bullpen should be really good - they will have Abreu/Pressly/Hader and then their 5th starter at a minimum available - and likely more if Garcia comes back and is effective. I know they have discussed moving him to the pen when he comes back, at least for 2024. Garcia's stuff should play up well in the pen too. The risk is getting into the post season and getting to the point where Garcia, Urquidy, etc. are back. Assuming no injuries (a fools errand) ..... the Astros will have..... Verlander Valdez Javier Brown Blanco France Garcia Montero Urquidy Abreu Pressly Hader Possibly: McCullers Probably on the outside looking in: Bielak, Martinez, Arrighetti, Munfree, Coleman So - realistically, the Astros should have plenty of pitching for the post season.... but I do think there will be parts of the year where the Astros miss having guys like Neris. If the Astros go to a 4 man rotation - France and Brown or Blanco will be available - with Garcia/Montero/Abreu/Pressly/Hader
Maton is the one I don't understand letting get away He was good, and got a minimal contract I understand the money part with Neris
I'd say from April 15th- May 2nd, the Astros will have enough off days that middle relief won't be a problem. That should get the Astros to Verlander or close to it. I'm not expecting Cy Young Verlander. I'm expecting Verlander and Framber to eat enough innings that middle relievers are rarely throwing high leverage innings. So even though the problem will likely not be addressed, middle relievers costing the Astros games will likely go away relative to other teams midddle relievers losses provided the Astros don't have more than 4 starters hurt at a time after April 15th. If one of Verlander or Framber is hurt...that would likely drop the Astros to being just one of the best at keeping high leverage innings off of relievers with 4+ ERAs after April 15th instead of having a big advantage. Caveat: I think the Astros offense is going to be fantastic this year such that I don't think Hader, Pressly, and Abreu are going to be needed every game.
Don’t forget 50-60 from Graveman, who they knew they’d be without in mid-January. So it most certainly is 200 innings that they did not actively try to replace, beyond Hader.
Hader is good for 50-60 of those, and the highest leverage of them. They also will add innings from Verlander, Urquidy, Garcia, and McCullers (well over 150 combined) vs last season. The roles and timing are mismatched, but in terms of season innings totals, they had them covered. Their projected playoff pitching staff is still ridiculously good: SP: JV, Framber, Javier, Brown RP: Hader, Pressly, Abreu, McCullers, Garcia, Montero, Urquidy, Blanco, France
Graveman didn’t pitch 50-60 innings for the Astros last year. They lost like 120-130 innings - which is a lot. However they made the strategic decision to get the closer and try for Snell and if not get him - then have money for the deadline. It is a risky calculation. Yeah you will have France for a full season, Urquidy at some point reasonably soon, and hopefully Garcia in July… but that’s a lot of questions. If Arrighetti pitches like they think he will - he will be up in May as a middle reliever too. I will admit - I wish they could have found the money to sign Moore or Neris. I would feel a lot better.
...so not to derail the great discussion about pitching in this thread-- the hitting coach working with himi? hows his batting practice looking pre-game? I'll give it to him for making some plays in the 4/1 flawless victory... but as of time of this post, 1 hit in 17 PA's, averaging just 25% of career / 2023 #'s tells me there's an ongoing issue.
