Biden urged Ukraine not to strike Russian refineries because it might impact his election chances. Unreal. Truman and Eisenhower are rolling in their graves right now. https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-bc4d-4d3c-9e57-cbdde122ac0c The US has urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, warning that the drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation, according to three people familiar with the discussions. The repeated warnings from Washington were delivered to senior officials at Ukraine’s state security service, the SBU, and its military intelligence directorate, known as the GUR, the people told the Financial Times. “Nothing terrifies a sitting American president more than a surge in pump prices during an election year,” said Bob McNally, president of consultancy Rapidan Energy and a former White House energy adviser.
Putin publicly considers Russia as the lines drawn by USSR and some super revanchist hardliners even want to take back Alaska. We're already in that grey zone he's declared. There are legit worries that he'll probe article 5 with a smaller nation in order to break apart NATO. Russia has been a threat to me since they've been proven capable and consistent with meddling with our elections and ****ing with our democracy. Putin doesn't want a kinetic war with us directly, but he obviously has enough time and money on his hands to plot NATO's downfall with psyops and Wagner incursions into Syria and France's African vassal states. It hasn't happened yet. Iran and N. Korea have been stepping up with missile and drone aid. That's been more numerous than the EU... That's Putin's goal to secure his hegemony and cement his legacy. It's a bit twisted since the Russian people have been robbed blind of their natural resources and industrial heritage.
Imagine the history books when the Iranian government is overthrown by the Taliban but then the Russia gets overrun by the Talibans enemy Islamic State of Khorasan (ISIS-K). Who had an ISIS uprising ending the invasion of Ukraine in their 2024 predictions? Well if ISIS-K does actually threaten Putin or Moscow there probably wouldn’t be any more textbooks being made.
France will soon deliver 78 howitzers to Ukraine to meet Kyiv’s urgent needs, defense minister says Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu said at a news conference that an agreement was reached among France, Ukraine and Denmark to finance the Caesar self-propelled 155 mm howitzers, which will enable France to “quickly deliver” them. France has also set a goal to deliver 80,000 shells for 155 mm guns to Ukraine this year — up from 30,000 delivered since the beginning of the war on Feb. 24, 2022, he said. In addition, Lecornu said, France is participating in an effort to identify available stocks of gunpowder and ammunition that could be bought from countries outside the European Union, a plan initiated by the Czech Republic to further support Kyiv. Under the plan, the Czechs seek to obtain 800,000 artillery shells for Ukraine. Czech leaders previously said the first shells should be delivered to Ukraine no later than June. At least 18 countries have joined the initiative, according to officials in Prague. https://apnews.com/article/france-ukraine-ammunition-howitzers-af44ababeef42de98170660cc1753b77
It reads like Russia has already won the war of attrition, and Ukraine is out of needed munitions while Russia is producing basic munitions in a war time economy far exceeding all of the western nation combined. Disappointing and terrifying at the same time.
Ukraine is running out of people to fight the war and munitions to keep them safe. Tanks support infantry but are not a replacement.
Wiki on ISW. It's a hawkish think tank. The most interesting thought in the document is the manipulation and propaganda strategy employed by the Kremlin. Russia's core strategy is to manipulate Western perceptions. The Kremlin aims to 'transmit false premises to the West so that the West freely comes to conclusions predetermined by the Kremlin, advancing Russian interests'. Summary from Claude below: Kremline main's stragety: According to the report, the strategy that matters most for the Kremlin is not its warfighting strategy, but rather its strategy "to cause us to see the world as it wishes us to see it and make decisions in that Kremlin-generated alternative reality that will allow Russia to win in the real world." In other words, the Kremlin's core strategy is perception manipulation and "reflexive control" - transmitting false premises to the West so that the West freely comes to conclusions predetermined by the Kremlin. The report provides several examples of this perception manipulation strategy: Enforcing the false premise that discussions of Ukraine's NATO accession posed an imminent danger to Russia to justify Russia's invasion. Promoting the false assertion that Russia has the right to a sphere of influence where it can do whatever it wants, including invading neighboring countries. Pushing the false narrative that Russia's invasion aimed to protect Russian speakers in Ukraine, despite Russia's attacks killing many Russian-speaking Ukrainians. Diverting Western discourse into historical irrelevancies like the origins of Kievan Rus to create pretexts for the invasion. Manipulating the Western concepts of "peace" to mean Ukrainian surrender to Russia's demands, not an actual negotiated settlement. Framing Ukraine's self-defense actions as "escalations" or "prolonging the war" to cast Ukraine as the aggressor. The core strategy, according to the report, is getting the United States to accept and reason from the Kremlin's false premises, leading to decisions that advance Russian interests over America's own interests and reality. General summary: This document titled "Denying Russia's Only Strategy for Success" by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) & AEI's Critical Threats Project analyzes Russia's strategy in the Ukraine war and argues that the West must take decisive action to support Ukraine's victory. The key points are: Russia's main strategy is to manipulate Western perceptions and undermine the will to support Ukraine through disinformation and "reflexive control" tactics. The West has the economic and military advantage over Russia, but is susceptible to Russian manipulation due to values like peace, past war legacies, and misunderstanding the Russian threat. Russian success in altering US decision-making has led to missed opportunities on the battlefield for Ukraine. The US must restore strategic clarity - Russia's victory in Ukraine is unacceptable and will embolden further aggression. Supporting Ukraine to fully liberate its territory is the prudent course. Specific steps recommended include surging military aid for a Ukrainian counteroffensive, targeting Russia's war sustaining capabilities, and stripping the Kremlin of its offset capabilities like perception manipulation. Helping Ukraine win denies Russia's core strategy, deters future aggression, and is in US interests compared to the catastrophic costs of a Russian victory. The paper argues that the information battle against Russian disinformation is as critical as the military battle for the US to uphold its interests and values. Denying Russia’s Only Strategy for Success | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org) Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West - and will likely lose - if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin. The West’s existing and latent capability dwarfs that of Russia. The combined gross domestic product (GDP) of NATO countries, non-NATO European Union states, and our Asian allies is over $63 trillion.[1] The Russian GDP is on the close order of $1.9 trillion.[2] Iran and North Korea add little in terms of materiel support. China is enabling Russia, but it is not mobilized on behalf of Russia and is unlikely to do so.[3] If we lean in and surge, Russia loses. ...
You can reverse Google search suspicious people, but even that will be obselete with budget llms and services.
Musk's Twitter blue check made it 100x worse. AI is going to make it 1,000,000,000,000x worse. Social media and AI platforms can work on tools to clamp down on AI bots if they want to.
Ukranian men don’t care enough to volunteer to fight. The biggest reason Ukraine will be slaves, if they do, will be because Ukranian men don’t care enough. Obviously, some do, and they’ve given the last full measure of devotion but simply not enough Ukranian men are enlisting.
They don't care enough to volunteer to fight? I don't think it is that simple - so far the fighting has been in limited areas, and many of the Ukrainians living in other parts of Ukraine do not really believe Russia will reach them. So there are hundreds of thousands of men that are 18-26 years old that are not volunteering but are in the age of conscription. There is also a financial concern that the Ukraine is dealing with, they don't want their economy to collapse. As for the draft, they could get quite a few to fight if there is a draft - but they are not at that point (yet).
