Are the Rockets a better team without Sengun?

The answer is no. Logically, you don’t take your best player off the team and you become better.
The team is playing well right now, it’s good to get the confidence up. But there’s more than a strong likelihood the results are the same with Alp in the lineup. This stretch is one that should have happened against the current teams
The only reason this thread was made is because a JOF doesn’t like Alp.

Be happy the team is starting to show signs that they can shoot. If they can do that consistently, Alp will only make it easier for them

 

Don't think we should really be overthinking this - we got into the soft part of our schedule against some of the bottom dweller teams (Wizards 2x) with an extended homestand late in the season (minus the away game @Wizards). When you get to play teams as lowly and dysfunctional as the Wizards twice in such a short span, it allowed some of our players to re-discover their shooting rhythm in an NBA game and see the ball go in consistently. Even if the opponents thereafter were more competitive than the Wizards, that rhythm and confidence carries over. Let's hope that confidence continues to carry over in the remaining games.

Obviously not on the same scale, but it's like if Ray Allen starts a game 0-7 and then gets a few freebies at the FT line and then drains a wide open 3, and then suddenly he's back in rhythm and even if you have Shane Battier on him every shot just starts going in. Our shooting has drastically improved after the Wizards games, not because of Sengun being injured... our shooting wasn't all that great against the Spurs, a game where we barely eked out a win against one of the worst teams with Sengun out.

 

Shooting was improved most probably because everybody are involved now and happy. Nothing against Sengun. Rockets really need to run. It opens up a lot of opportunities to other players making every play dynamic and difficult to defend.

 

We are the only fanbase that does this to its own players. And it always starts from this cesspool and spills into the media. So thanks for this Clutchfans, the ass hole of the Rockets fandom.

 

Same amount of passes, same offense. Literally the only difference is making shots

 

I think the core problem with the idea presented in this post (and other similar posts by some of our, shall we say, not-so-sharp posters) is the post hoc logical fallacy. The example from the article linked is:

"The rooster crows immediately before sunrise; therefore the rooster causes the sun to rise."

Same issue here. "The Rockets continued a winning streak after Alperen Sengun was injured; therefore Alperen Sengun's injury caused the Rockets' continued winning streak." (Except it's even sillier, because the current streak started before he went down.)

It is a simple-minded way of viewing the situation at best, or at worst an agenda on display.

 

Sengun doesnt stop them from running.

Everyone has had plenty of opportunity all year, this is a weird post imo. When your dudes get opportunity after opportunity and cant efficiently make wide open shots or layups, you stop going to them. That's why Ime Udoka, beloved coach of the Houston Rockets, stopped going to them.

It's like the JG can't play with FVV argument. WRONG

Like are we forgetting the early months (PLURAL) where JG was given the reigns to run the second unit without Alpi and sucked ass?
Or how about the middle months (PLURAL) where they came out every game trying to get JG involved and aggressive and as a result were down 10-20 every first quarter?

Jalen Green is PUTTING IT TOGETHER!!! THE END. IT'S DAMN AMAZING!! It will make them potentially a top 4 team consistently going forward with 2 all-star level starters.

The question isn't can this work with Alpi. It's can Jalen keep it up, regardless of who is playing.

 

No. This is the NBA. If you need to be happy to shoot competently you aren’t mentally suited for team sports and you will never make the league.

You need data like quality of shots, spacing, movement yielding more mismatches etc.

And you won’t find any of that bc Jalen splashing 27 foot step backs 5 times every game wasn’t happening a month ago.

Can’t you lot ever be happy for our team? Damn man y’all just live to hate.

 

This isn't sustainable but doesn't mean there aren't lessons to be learned.

 

Ty - IMO this is the correct take. I'm not bothered by trying to dump on Sengun. But i'm quite curious about understanding what's changed on the margin which, when combined w better 3pt shooting, may give us a window in to understanding why this is happening and what we can use once Sengun is back. The images below are season-to-date stats so the improved shooting over the last 2 weeks won't stand out.

Here's what stands out on the Sengun on/off team shot chart:

1- Higher 3pt % w/ Sengun ON and slightly improved long mid-range (LMR) shooting (better spacing = higher shot quality perhaps...TBD)
2- Negligible change in combined 3P + Rim Attempts (RA): 81.8% ON, 82.3% OFF



Now we get to nitty gritty. Opposing team shot chart w/ Segun on/off:

1- > 3% higher Opponents eFG
2- 3pt + RA 78.8% of shots w/ Sengun ON, 81.9% w/ Sengun OFF
3- Teams take almost 4% more shots at the Rim w/out Sengun ON (if he isn't a rim-protector, at the very least his presence at least discourages)
4- Opponents shoot better from almost everywhere including some eye-popping numbers like +15% from the L-corner (poor/stretched rotations?) and +10% from the arc (exactly where teams run PnR w/ Alpi part of the defensive action)

It's counter intuitive. Opponents get the rim more frequently and shoot almost as many 3's w/ Alpi OFF but their percentages (likely much higher shot quality; I'll research later). And on the flip side they take far more mid range shots but shoot those at a much better clip too.



I love Alpi. I love Jalen. I love these young Rockets. The answers you want won't be found on Offense. Simply, all that's happened there is we're hitting our shots. But defensively...damn. Reminds me of what Ime said right after the injury that "it allows us to do some more things Defensively" (might me misquoting off memory).

 

We won't know that answer until Sengun comes back but did you know Wash has victories over Miami, Indiana and they are on a 2 game win streak after they played Houston.

Portland has victories over us, Miami, Cleveland and Sacramento.

My point is anybody can be beat on any day, its the NBA. Every player is getting paid and they are all professionals. Same as an any other sport.

 

Ive said this in the past. You have to have a system where everybody touches the ball in the half court, not just dropping the ball into Sengun on the low block.

But thats going to require spacing, movement and cutting. When you look at the Rockets now vs then, thr court is spread. Can Sengun's talents be maximized in such a system? We will see

 

Alpi is the secondary ball-handler for this team in the half-court. He avg 5 Apg. If you lose him, you have to replace those 5 just to be even on Apg as a team. By definition, the rest of the team's Assists will increase.

For an apples to apples take the contribution of the 2 primary ball-handlers w/out Alpi (FVV/Jalen) and his direct replacement (Landale).

Those 4 avg 17.0 including Alip's 0. When Alpi's healthy those 4 avg 16.9. There is literally zero difference. You are trying really hard to justify or validate an argument that is simply baseless.

 

How can mirrors be real, if our eyes aren't real?

 

I never said he was anyone neither did I say Jalen was Kobe. The point is that his skillset and limitations requires a certain roster constructed around him similar to those teams who ran their offense thru their big men. The Yao and Tmac years featured pgs like Sura and Rafer. Lakers featured Fisher and Ron Harper. Players who aren’t dynamic high scoring ball dominant pg’s. The big and 2 guards were featured. In Denver they created a roster of shooters and big defenders to flank Jokic.

 

Not quite accurate. There simply were few driving lanes when Sengun is in the high post, mid post or elbows. Teams sag their corners and wings to cover the paint daring the Rockets to shoot. FVV dominated the touches usually running high screen and rolls or off elbow dribble handoffs. When the ball is rotated out to Green on the wing perimeter because FVV and Sengun have nowhere to go, there usually are 2 defenders waiting. That’s why the Rockets offense kept stalling and went long stretches without buckets. With Smith as the 5, this opens up driving lanes for Green. He is playing high screen and roll with other players like Amen with Smith on the perimeter. Green also has more touches now. Green’s performance in the first half was a combo of how defenses play the Rockets and lack of touches but also because of his lack of aggression.

 

He was until after the allstar break WITH ALPI. Players can play better fool lol

 

What 250 games?

A big big (#1, #2, or #3 option offensively) hadn't won a championship in 23 years until Jokic did it last year.

Nuggets team that used my model of 6'6"-ish players to 6'9"-ish:
Michael Porter jr 6'10" falls in that mobile
Aaron Gordon 6'8" me and @D-rock were calling for that guy for years
Jeff Green 6'8"
Christian Braun 6'6"
Jamal Murray 6'4" plays bigger than his frame. Goes with the switch everything model defensively
KCP 6'5" fit in that switch everything model.

I preached having a big big like Bogut, Javale MeGee, Daniel Gafford, Mark Williams types that can give the
team 18 to 20 minutes to wrangle with the Jokic, KAT, Embiid types who can shoot 3's and
post up. Hold them up while our other defenders provide help defense.

18 - 20 minutes wearing them down and using fouls wisely.....then the JJJ, Jabari Smith, Chet, Wemby
running them off the court in fast pace non stop run, run, run (28-30 minutes of regulation time). 3's > 2's.
Opposite of what the Warriors would do, they would run Bogut/Javale MeGee 28 minutes and
go Hampton-5 around 18 minutes.

I also pushed the bigs that can do that and give us 3-point shooting capabilities like Myles Turner.

--------------

You may say I'm wrong but I argue the NBA gave it to Jokic when LeBron and the Lakers
ran out of gas. Finally giving it to a Big-@$$-Big after 23 years of not having them win
it all. So that fan bases that are heavyweights can fantasize about they themselves
making it there one day. Make the poorest least efficient shot in the NBA
relevant again.

As I've said before, Alex Caruso had a 4-first round picks trade value by the Bulls, but yet
the Lakers pick up DeAngelo Russell, Rui Hachimaui, and Mo Bamba for nothing
but crappy Horton-Tucker and Nunn.,............Rigged.



Bigs like Jokic, Embiid, Gobert, KAT, Sengun have to play Drop Coverage defensively
in order to stay on the court. But there will always be a 3-point shooter open with
Drop Coverage.

* Pick-n-Roll occupy two defenders

* Kick out to perimeter shooters (side having two shooters)

*Skip ball all my the perimeter forces defense to rotate

* Ball finds corner shooter......Big Lug Center is last option to pop out and defend
said corner shooter. If you watch the finals Jokic did half hearted effort to pop
out to corner shooter. Miami with Pat Riley and Spoelstra who made a living
feeding Ray Allen and Battier and Bosh and Mike Miller somehow forgot that
and couldn't remember, take advantage of the Jokic Drop Coverage.
Sure you can believe that; but I'm smarter than that. Rigged.

Miami being small should have eaten up the Nuggets on fast break 3's layups
but for some reason didn't run vs the big size players the Nuggets were
putting out there. Sure you can believe that: but I'm smarter than that. Rigged.

I knew the NBA draft was rigged......but when the League set up LeBron to win
the In-Season Tournament. The LeBron invitational......then I figured out
the games during the season are rigged too.

Refs let Myles Turner be physical with Giannis (Bucks) so that Indiana would be
a cupcake for the Lakers. That same LeBron who has struggled making 3's most of
his career all of a sudden pulling up for 40-footers and making them. Same Lakers
who the refs gave a timeout vs the Suns while no player had possession of the
ball......allowing the Lakers to beat the Suns.

Then the refs called everything tight vs Myles Turner......putting him in foul trouble early
which allowed Anthony Davis to have a field day in that In-Season Tournament championship.

League/Lakers had a ring ceremony, raising of the banner trying to bring LeBron closer
to Michael Jordan. Knowing that LeBron wears out by All Star break.....league is talking
about giving the In-Season tournament winner be an automatic 5th seed (at least).
Tell me the league doesn't rig things!!




I guarantee I've been more correct than your sorry @$$ over the years