I'm starting to doubt the boom-bust-boom-boom 4 year cycle may hold now that the ETFs are here. There will always be a drawdown but they could be substantially less dramatic going forward. We may not have discovered the new floor yet.
Imo, ETFs were the endgame as future halvening cycles look less impactful to supply. It could take gold's position as a safe haven for millennials, but I'd still treat it as an ARKK like stock sensitive to macro interest rate/liquidity issues. I understand folks want to sell this as a flight to safety but it's too volatile for mom and pops to treat it like that, and those who aren't aware of the past will get roasted. My 2 bits.
One of those conditions has to be for him to get a better grasp on the English language...guy talks out of his ass more than anyone here.
It's always about time horizon. If you plan your bitcoin buys with appropriately long tails of 4~ years you're golden. If you put next month's rent on it you're a dumbass who is gonna get rekt.
ETF's are interesting. I am not sure how safe they are for retirement portfolios. The overwhelming support from institutions was unexpected for me. If these funds can convince enough 40-50 year olds to put it in the retirement funds, this will provide significant stability. Institutions have been accumulating for awhile now. Eventually they will have to let it go as its locked up capital not doing anything. Bitcoin will then reach a point where the institutions will need to create some type of bonding instrument. The question remains whether a bitcoin bond will yield higher or lower than fed fund rate. I expect it will be lower...if this is the case, Bitcoin will be the premium asset and those who hold Bitcoin on-chain (vs paper bitcoin like ETF's and exchanges) will be able to leverage hard assets at very low interest costs. For example, if I have 500k in real bitcoin, I could go buy a 500k house @ 2% (below fed funds rate) interest and put my 500k Bitcoin up for collateral...this ofc depends on if the loan is denominated in BTC or USD.
