Season's Pretty Much Over - Thoughts moving forward?

This season is the opposite of a success.

How do we know? THEY told us.

MANY MANY times ownership and coaching specifically mentioned playoffs. GM i cant recall if he did or not, but he has referenced Phase 2 many times.

Some i see have resorted to "but we're probably going to hit our expected win total so all is good" approach. This is wrong to me for a couple reasons. And they are:

1. Gauge this season based on what they said. See my initial opening point. The team itself was not focused on 32 wins (or whatever), but rather play-offs and play-in.

2. Trajectory over the course of the season. EVEN IF i wanted to argue 32 wins is a strong improvement... there's a STARK difference between starting out ass and finishing strong, and starting out strong and finishing ass. This squad has gotten worse, record wise, every month so far. I'm not an expert on momentum, but that's headed the WRONG way.

3. Player development. Jalen Green - not worth discussing. Jabari Smith = improvement, but still WILDLY inconsistent, WILDLY below the upside view many had/wanted from him, and still SUPER unclear as to his eventual future projection and upside. Bear in mind I am lower on Jabari than most - his insane length and decent shooting now help him cover up his many many weaknesses. Tari Eason = lost season. Alpi = yay, a leap!! Except still constant question marks about his defense and motor. Rookies are a bit hard in this category... but one thing seems clear, they are in the same mold as dudes we've already drafted... insane upside potential with FATAL flaws that may make them finish not remotely close to those upsides.

Is the sky falling? Not necessarily... but also potentially.

Here's some positives:
a) Getting Tari back and adding Adams is legit like adding 2 completely new players for next year. Fingers crossed on their health.
b) There's close to ZERO chance Jalen gets treated with the same baby gloves so to speak going forward. Sure he's been benched in second halves, but we all know this is a kid that should be coming off the bench. He's either traded, or gets the role his play deserves next year.
c) Nets pick
d) Ime - I have been pretty all over the place on my judgement of Ime so far. I think ultimately he has some issues that might be permanent long-term issues, principally around offensive scheme, and rotations. HOWEVER, hard to make that final judgement with this roster and given what he's accomplished with the defense, with these players, he's clearly a very good coach.

Here are some negatives:
i. It's possible, and probably even likely, that none of our players ever become "the man" or close to it.
ii. Related to the above, but a number of our competiting "tanking" teams... have got that man, or more than one. Even the non-competing tanking teams but just other teams that had been bad in the past, are set up pretty strong. long-story short, its 2024 nba, there's insane talent across the league and on many teams.
iii. Even with the Nets picks, our draft asset situation is just "ok"
iv. Our GM is not good. This is obviously a subjective opinion... but it also seems so close to obvious to me as to be objective. He loses trades at the margins consistently, waits too long to decide what to do, doesn't seem to have a clear philosophy (at least one that works) as to types of players he likes, who he wants to draft, what type of team he's trying to build, etc. The number of people that will point to Alpi, Tari and Cam as reasons he's an average GM is ok. Its NOT A GOOD SIGN when your GM is constantly losing on top 5 picks so much you have to point to the relative value he got later in the first round to prop him up (notwithstanding the fact that I am SUPER happy he got that value)
v. Nobody around the league gives af about the Rockets. They dont get media coverage, they aren't talked about, nobody cares about them, etc. Alpi gets some shine, but as we've seen, the team itself kinda dismisses it. One might say "who cares?!?" or "do other crap teams?!?". Well... kinda. Paolo, Wemby get coverage. Does Scoot, or Brandon Miller... not as much no... those aren't teams i want to be grouped with. And perception matters for sure league wide.
vi. Very few people in Houston give af about the Rockets. See attendance.

Sorry for the long post...

I contend this team is EQUALLY close to starting the rebuild over as it is to having this one be a success. To me, that does NOT scream successful season. There are paths forward, but from the outside looking in, they are all murky and require an exceptional front office to navigate. I am not optimistic.

 

Things are fluid.

Having said that, OKC is way above where the Rockets are at this point.

OKC has three players better than the Rockets best player, OKC has more cap space and OKC has 4 first rounders in 2024, they have 4 first rounders in 2025, they have 3 first rounders in 2026, and 2 first rounders in 2027.... they also have a well-entrenched front office that has a proven track record of talent evaluation.

Can the Rockets catch the Thunder? It isn't likely but things can change quickly. The Rockets would require internal improvement and huge jumps by a few guys like Thompson or Whitmore - and they would have to strike gold in 2024 draft. Possible but unlikely.

The Spurs have the top younger player in the game with Wemby. They also have other role players that lack the upside of the Rockets young core but they also will have the Raptors lottery pick this season and their own, and they have Hawks picks coming up. In other words, they are in a pretty good situation and their culture is sold.

Orlando also is above the Rockets. They have a glut of young wings and forwards.

I am sure there are others.

 

San Antonio is in a far better position than the Rockets.

First, they have a possible generational star that as a rookie is already a top 10 player in the league.

Second, they have a number of supporting players that they can trade for value.

Third, they have at least two lottery picks in 2024 with the Raptors and their own pick. They also have future #1's from the Hornets, Hawks (3), the Clippers and Pelicans.

The Spurs also have cap space and a better culture.

 

yeah but we have Sengun

 

Why he look like a sad frog?

 

There's a huge asterisk though, which is that Wemby has to stay healthy

Not saying he won't, but not saying he will, either.

Edit: But yes, in the long run I am actually more focused on San Antonio than OKC. OKC is already cranking open their contending window and their star player is like 5 years older than our young guys. We don't know if they will have sustained success or if that team will end up breaking up.

Wemby is on the first year of his rookie contract. He is going to be on the Spurs (again, if healthy) when we are trying to contend.

 

OKC and SA both have asterisks with Wemby and Holmgren - and you are right, they could be hurt.

 

The Spurs have missed the opportunity to appoint Hardy, Hammon or one of his disciples.....

I do not think Pop has the hunger now......he seems to be a hapless Yoda but this is the NBA.

The Sochan for PG was the most hideous thing to watch.

Fresh eyes, fresh takes, fresh concepts, fresh faces.

 

Pop isn't going to be coaching there forever - and with Wemby, Sochan and multiple lottery picks - they will attract very good long term coaching candidates.

Pop is fine right now - he teaches them fundamentals and accountability.

 

I am not a Spurs fan so I do not know what went wrong with Primo, Dejounte Murray, Kawhi and his medical situation.....so I am not going to speculate here.

• Seems like they have a code and whoever goes against it, is sort of on the way out sooner than later......
• 
  
• It is the crass opposite of the Rockets' modus operandi but I would like to have seen more middle ground.
• 
  
• Players are humans anything other than what Primo did could warrant taking a second look or second chance.

 

If there are only 3 or 4 clubs better positioned than the Rockets moving forward then things arent that bad. In a league where injuries happen and stars bail on their teams being one of the top teams is all you need for a run of entertaining seasons. Im hoping they can salvage Jalen's career (a guy I never really embraced but accepted when they chose him) but, even if they cant, Sengun/Smith/Eason/Whitmore/Thompson is not a bad core to continue to build around.

 

I’m not super high on Whitmore…he’s a 1 dimensional gunner to me

Amen Thompson as a primary ball handler with that hideous jumper isn’t doing it for me either

Jalen being a flat out bust has set us back big time as well

 

You have to use the math AND the experience
It's like baseball . . . sometimes your gut works. . . some times experience in certain situations
and others the math just works

The Math probably works 80% of the time
the other 20 is why we pay coaches
10% for in-game analysis and adjustments
10% game prep and practice

Rocket River

 

Wait, people still use the Jalen age thing?

There's multiple people on the roster YOUNGER than Jalen who are already BETTER than Jalen.

But sure, ignore the literal pages of data which reiterates over and over and over and over again at how terrible Jalen is.

But you know, he's the most athletic so that's the only thing that matters.

Terrence Williams says hi. So does every single other uber athlete who couldn't put it together because they didn't have much between the ears

You have very few posts, but from a couple I've seen they are some of the worst on the board. This has to be someone's alt account because they're too embarrassed to post this on their real one.

 

Minnesota has a better future with Anthony Edwards.
Dallas has a better future with Luka.
New Orleans has a better future with Zion and Ingram.
Memphis has a better future with Ja.
The LA teams are always a free agent destination, potentially better future there.

That's just the western conference but I count at least half the teams with a better future than the Rockets. The teams built to win now aren't going away next season either. It sucks, but if we're being honest, the Rockets future isn't looking so great.

 

Didn't Amen Thompson pass Green as the most athletic on the team? Amen just does not like to dunk emphatically.

 

If Wemby is a top 10 player and SAS has a number of supporting cast why are they the worst team in the West? I think it's reasonable to expect a top 10 player in the NBa with a supporting cast to get more than 13 wins. If Pistons and Wizards weren't so horrifically bad Spurs would be the joke of the league.

Second the Rox also have a lottery pick next in 2024 c/o the Nets. The Spurs having a bright future is incumbent on them tanking even more treating this year as "Year 1". I can say the same for the Rox we can treat this year as year 1 of the Amen era and have Rox tank every year like the Spurs. You only think Spurs have a better position because you are treating them differently. You expect Rox to be decent while Spurs are OK to keep tanking when reality is Spurs started rebuilding even earlier than the Rockets.

 

Amen is this team’s best chance to be a star long term IMO.

 

Jalen has definitely set the Rockets back. As for Amen and Cam - both have weaknesses to work on but have high upside. They aren’t sure things but only rookies. So much uncertainty