So we going to just head to the second round after 16 picks? Math would dictate that he add more guys into the list of first round grades.
“How many first-round prospects are there in the 2024 NFL draft class? You might be thinking the answer is 32, since there will be 32 selections in Round 1 come April 25 in Detroit. But we aren't talking about how many players will be drafted in Round 1; we're talking about how many carry a true Round 1 grade. NFL teams don't typically deem many prospects in a given class as Round 1-caliber talents, and never 32 of them. More realistically, around 15 per class earn a real first-round grade, though the number varies by team and scouting department. These sacred evaluations are reserved for prospects who would be Day 1 selections regardless of year, and my own rule of thumb is whether the player would have been one in each of the past five classes. Confusing? Welcome to the world of scouting. I tackled my list for the 2024 class with a strict grading scale after handing out 20 first-round scores in 2023, and I ended up with 16 names at this point in the process -- up from 14 in late December. I'll update this list periodically until draft time, so the number will keep changing with the combine and further tape study. But for now, here are the players who deserve a first-round grade on my board. (Players' overall rankings are in parentheses after their names.)”
The key is when you're picking 1-23 and there are only 16 guys with 1st rd grades is finding guys that are 1st rd talents even though they might not have 1st rd grades. Chris Jones was a 2nd rd pick as an example.
Who do you want to see next week at the Combine? Are you excited to see perform someone in particular? I remember last year, all eyes on the QBs, looking to see the next Texans QB, hehe.
I know this is a basic answer, but I think the WR 40-times are going to be really intriguing this year.
Figured it was something along those lines but I still think it's silly. If an average of 15 per class get the first round grade it makes no sense to the reality of how many picks exist in the first round.
I like highlights, but they are incomplete when evaluating a prospect. This is why I have to trust the FO to be good. I was listening to an interview of (not with for a change) Sean P this AM and he mentioned something very true. Your career in management is almost totally judged on your hires and the people you bring in. I'm certain Caserio must be good at this or he would have been thrown out last season before the almost complete makeover of this team. And it was proven with our draft, not at the top, but in the middle and at the bottom. I'm certain THIS TEAM, specifically the management, has a sum greater than the sum of it's parts. And as it filters down to the team on the field, we will find it difficult to return teams because free agents have been put in a position to get paid. I don't know if they can reproduce last years off season from FA to draft back to FA, but it's a tall order, even with and extra $30M from the increase in the Salary Cap.
There is a bit of narcissism when it comes to prospect evaluation. So you not only have to deal with general uncertainty, but the EGO of the pickers to maintain their initial evaluations. At that point two things happen. The first is excuses for under or non performance and the other is denial that you made the pick in the first place. With time, you simply hedge your bets with conditional statements like If he continues..., if he is coachable...if he makes adjustments... if he test well... so you cannot pin down a first round grade to any of them. I have also noticed myself, when reading evaluations, am significantly influenced by the format. In a pro and con with the con listed first, I have a much more negative impression than on with the traditional pro first.. I also pigeonhole reports with no pro or no con as fanboys of either the player or a competitor. There are players who will fit, but I won't initially believe the reports are accurate. Suffice it to say, I'd prefer the mathematical approach with a hard cuttoff at 32, 64, 96 etc. to the fuzzy model and simply acknowledge some are drafted higher or lower in the end.
Where teams get in trouble is when they reach for need over drafting for talent, this is especially true as they pick later in the draft. Example, WR isn't the greatest need on the team, but if a guy like Thomas is there at 1-23 he should be the pick, because he's a top 10 type talent. As apposed to picking a guy at a position of need like Darius Robinson, who's a fine player but not a top 10 player in this draft IMHO.
Yes. This is why I wish the FA period came after the draft. Now you haven't reached for need, you are left with straining the cut the pile.
I agree bpa. If there is not a clear choice then take the one you desperately need. Unfortunately, we need almost everything other than qb and OL. All the 1 year contracts have to be filled and they can’t all be filled with FA. Let’s say the Texans and two guys with like ratings at cb and wr are on the board. Who they are targeting in FA will have an impact on which one they take. I don’t think its ever bpa, it’s always influenced on need and talent.
My view is either the same or similar. Prospect generally come grouped more than individually desired. Unless there is a particular outstanding trait, need just helps to sort out the group.
