1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

[Official] Spring Training 2024

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Feb 18, 2024.

  1. Buck Turgidson

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2002
    Messages:
    85,784
    Likes Received:
    84,190
     
    kaw1988 and No Worries like this.
  2. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2021
    Messages:
    1,471
    Likes Received:
    1,088
    Why would you think that? I certainly do not agree with that statement. I have no idea what Bregman would or would not agree to. I am sure he is aware that the Astros are not likely to exceed a contract of five years. They have been very straightforward on this point. A longer deal would be a non starter. If he feels he has to have more he will have to look elsewhere. Why would he insult the organization he has been a part of since his career began by insisting they break their own policy for him. He is a good player but he is not worth setting aside the teams standards or mortgaging their future over.
     
  3. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2021
    Messages:
    5,459
    Likes Received:
    6,168
    Hahahaha

    You got me. You actually came across as serious and it took me awhile to realize you were joking.

    Good one.
     
  4. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 1999
    Messages:
    30,105
    Likes Received:
    16,998
    Ozzie Smith can also do a back flip at 40, so that fits my narrative.

     
    Buck Turgidson likes this.
  5. kaw1988

    kaw1988 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2022
    Messages:
    258
    Likes Received:
    601
    not to derail this thread too much, but this is my fav Bob Uecker story by the late great Norm Macdonald
     
    leroy, The Drake and Buck Turgidson like this.
  6. Buck Turgidson

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2002
    Messages:
    85,784
    Likes Received:
    84,190
    Yeah, that would be terrible
     
  7. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2021
    Messages:
    5,459
    Likes Received:
    6,168
    I broke this down by WAR.

    My feeling there are 4 types of seasons by WAR for a $25M+ contract.
    5+ has exceeded the deal
    3-4.9 has been worth the deal
    2-2.9 not ideal but OK
    <2 is bad

    Ages 31-33:
    avg: 3.7
    5+: 14/45 = 31%
    3-4.9: 13/45 = 29%
    2-2.9: 6/45 = 13%
    <2: 12/45 = 27%

    Age 34: 2.9 /33% /20% /7% /40%
    Age 35: 3.4 /21% /43% /0 /36%
    Age 36: 3.0 /20% /27% /13% /40%
    Age 37: 2.6 /25% /8% /25% /42%
    Age 38: 2.5 /0 /38% / 24% /38%
    Age 39: 2.7 /0 /50% /33% /17%
    Age 40: 1.6 /0 /20% /20% /60%
    Age 41: -0.2 /0 /0 /0 /100%

    So the average of a 7 yr contract would be 23.0 WAR
    $225M = $9.8M / WAR
    $210M = $9.1M / WAR
    $200M = $8.7M / WAR
    $175M = $7.6 M / WAR

    Age 37 is the last year you can expect a 3+ WAR season. The risk of a season below 2 is above 25% throughout, even at the early seasons of the contract.

    Today I will do Tucker. My expectation is that we find out a 10 year /$250+M deal is pretty good investment.
     
    #67 IdStrosfan, Feb 21, 2024
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2024
  8. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

    Joined:
    Aug 12, 2021
    Messages:
    1,471
    Likes Received:
    1,088
    Only half kidding, but I couldn't resist. All in good fun.
     
    IdStrosfan likes this.
  9. Rockets34Legend

    Rockets34Legend Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2002
    Messages:
    20,721
    Likes Received:
    15,578
  10. ipaman

    ipaman Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2002
    Messages:
    13,025
    Likes Received:
    7,792
    I didn't even know he was sick
     
    Bobbythegreat likes this.
  11. Rockets34Legend

    Rockets34Legend Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2002
    Messages:
    20,721
    Likes Received:
    15,578
  12. torque

    torque Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2003
    Messages:
    4,837
    Likes Received:
    925
    For the third straight year, I am convinced that Jake Meyers is going to break out and become a star. My bold prediction for this year is that he posts more than 4 WAR.
     
  13. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    11,189
    Likes Received:
    15,143
    I predict one of Meyers, Cabbage, Pena, Loperfido, or Leon put up at least 3 fwar this season.
     
  14. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2012
    Messages:
    10,435
    Likes Received:
    5,698
    Of that group I would easily go with Pena. He is a stud defensively, and has showed that he has the ability to be explosive on offense as well
     
  15. Marshall Bryant

    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2018
    Messages:
    8,854
    Likes Received:
    4,793
    They all put up 1 so we get 5 total.
     
  16. raining threes

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2008
    Messages:
    12,708
    Likes Received:
    8,365
    How many more years are you going to holdout hope?

    BTW, I hope you're right, but it's time for Meyers to prove he's anything more than a 4t OF'er.
     
  17. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2021
    Messages:
    5,459
    Likes Received:
    6,168
    Pena got 3.4 his rookie year so probably shouldn't even be on this list. 70% probably.

    Meyers got 1.7 in 341 PAs last year. That's 2.5 over 500 PA. I think with just slight improvement, more consistency, and 500+ PA he can get 3 fWAR. 40%?

    I don't see a path for any of the others.

    Cabbage? Chas got 2.3 and 2.0 his first 2 seasons. Do you think he will outperform what Chas did or get enough playing time for that to be a discussion?

    Loperfido? I expect him to spend at least half the season in AAA. I just don't see him making thecteam based in his experience level and who he's competing against.

    Leon? I only see this if he beats out Meyers in the spring. If he and Meyers both make the team he won't get enough playing time. If he wins the starting CF job then growing pains probably keep him under 3 but he could explode.
     
    prospecthugger and Wulaw Horn like this.
  18. raining threes

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2008
    Messages:
    12,708
    Likes Received:
    8,365
    This is what Brown/Espada are banking on.
     
  19. Marshall Bryant

    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2018
    Messages:
    8,854
    Likes Received:
    4,793
    I'm still holding out hope Alvarez spends more time in LF than DH.
     
  20. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2021
    Messages:
    5,459
    Likes Received:
    6,168
    This year will be the deciding one.

    Either he takes the job and becomes a 3 WAR starter, or some combination of Leon/Corona/Melton overtake him and he becomes filler in a deadline trade.
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now