Didn't all this polls really bad for biden thing start around Israel - Hamas war time frame?? Sometimes it feels like there is something in these polls that is not coming out clearly. If Biden's response to Middle east conflict causes some part of electorate to not vote for him, are they OK with the alternative choice for their cause?? I think these polls are reflecting current days hot climate and would likely tapper off. Age thing is a concern but is the most open secret of all the president candidates. The senility of Biden is overplayed in righting media channels. We all should have known how these twitter cuts go by now. There is a SOTU around the corner. People can see and make up their mind. Last time around, He was playing with republicans in the audience. Primary of an Incumbent president is like saying we sucked last 4 years. Clearly that is not the case. By several measures, this was an active administration over past several years.
I dont know anything about Phillips but if the DNC took him serious, I would absolutely consider him. I thought Ronnie stood a good chance originally, before he went full r* on woke. I will look into Phillips....this should tell you how effective his campaigning has been, whatever the reason might be. But I want to hop back on my other point. View it from a Elitist vs Populist. RNC and DNC both subscribe to the "this is how its done" philosophy. We very well could see a democrat populist candidate in the near future.
There were bad polls for Biden before Oct 7 so it’s not just Israel. The polls shouldn’t be ignored and they do expose problems with Biden. At the same time there have been polls showing Biden leading too so there is a lot of uncertainty in them. Biden’s age is definitely a problem. I don’t think it’s as bad as his critics make it out to be and even some of Biden’s political opponents have said that he was involved and a tough negotiator. Biden has always been a gaffe machine and said stupid stuff even decades ago. It’s not getting better but if we look at his record, passing a lot of consequential legislation, supporting Ukraine and Israel without getting US troops directly involved in the fighting, expanding NATO, and even increasing US energy production and manufacturing. His administration had done a lot. Looking at the chaos of the Republicans where they barely can keep their majority in the House and relying upon Democrats to keep the lights on the Biden administration is doing well.
I don’t know him personally but he is a friend of a close friend of mine. Philips has been a very capable member of the House who played a big role in getting things like the infrastructure bill passed. The problem is that he cannot get a broad base of support. He never built up a national following along the lines of an AOC or even a Marjorie Taylor Greene no matter what you think of her politics has a lot of name recognition. One thing that many forget is that Biden want handed the Presidency. This time four years ago many were talking about Biden’s campaign as dead. He came in 4th in Iowa. It’s only the SC turned things around because Biden showed he was the only Democrat that could unite various parts of the party. Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigeig nor even Bernie Sanders could do it. Biden wasn’t forced down Democrats throats he won a very competitive primary. as it happens the same could be said about Trump in 2016 There very well could be given that Sanders run in many populist issues such as grievance towards the elite. I will say again my own view is that populism both in the left and the right isn’t a good thing. We’ve seen in history countless examples of Populist movements leading to chaos followed by autocracy. That very well happen here in the US.
One candidate is old and the other one spear headed a insurrection, took money from Russia, sexually assaulted women and bragged about it, has to wear a diaper, committed fraud. There is a choice even though neither are perfect. Unfortunately there are never perfect choices because politics makes you do stuff that aren't ideal because of morons like the ones on this board.
Yes, I full agree. Populism in either can lead to dangerous outcomes. While I am not that concerned about the US, I am very concerned for other countries. They can quickly become war hawks and start creating global rifts. The important thing populism is on the rise across the globe. Trump isn't taking over the US and Bernie isn't going to turn us into Venezuela. But the elitist do need to check themselves. We have senators making millions in the stock market. We have politicians dying on their thrones. This stuff pushes people to bad candidates.
Did Nate also posit a similar question the Rs ... You don't demonstrate your seriousness that Trump is an existential threat to democracy by going through the motions to renominate the Existential Threat to Democracy.
No he’s wanting to pursued people with gaslighting propaganda techniques and boogeyman fear mongering. The not so sly attempt at demonizing the likely replacement to Biden while first gaslighting folks on Biden supposedly needing to drop out gives away the game. He’s not reflecting internally on any decision he’s going to make himself because he’s already locked in if he’s in this deep in trying to trick people here into changing their perception of Democrats, or western democracies, and also carry water for Putin like he often does when he gaslights on behalf of Putin in discussions about Ukraine. This is not a serious person anyone here should debate in good faith.
"You don't demonstrate your seriousness that Trump is an existential threat to democracy by going through the motions to renominate an 81-year-old with a 38% approval rating who 75% of voters think is too old without giving anyone a choice because that's just how things are done." - Nate Silver There have been comments from the left (moderate, traditional, mainstream) questioning if Biden is the right candidate. Nate Silver is essentially saying the same thing but from a risk perspective. That's all fine and good, but the reality is that no one has shown any ability to challenge Biden. Nate knows this—his 538 polling shows it. This doesn't mean that people who support Biden or will vote for him don't feel that Trump is an existential threat to democracy. It simply means there isn't anyone else who has risen up to the challenge, and people like the never-Trumpers will 100% vote for Biden because they 100% believe Trump IS an existential threat. Go, suggest someone else...
the second you say what Silver said or what you mentioned above, 'YoU r A TrUmP suPpOrTer" I actually believe trump derangement syndrome exists simply because people can no longer hold an objective point of view unless they pledge allegiance to biden because of the orange boogieman
I think it's because Trump is wininng currently. You can make the trade-off of weakening the Constitution or harming democratic norms if your side is winning. At least it's logical. There's also the point that most Republicans don't think Trump is an existential threat to democracy. I don't think I have TRS, because I actually acknowledge the positives that he brings. That stated, as someone who follows the nerd constitution related stuff, I do think he will bend the Constitution to the extreme. He's not the first, but he takes every action to the max, and I don't think it's healthy for the country. I do agree that the Dems are just playing the strategic game all wrong.
I mean right? what choice do I have? Whatever I can do to keep away the guy who says "I'd encourage Russia to attack NATO" is whatever it is. If it's Curious ****ing George, then my vote is for Curious George. The whole schtick that's supposed to be funny around "oRaNgE mAn Bad" fails miserably cause yeah that mother ****er is bad. He's real ****ing bad. And I'd vote for almost anyone to make sure he isn't president ever again. I have my shortcomings, but I'm not that ****ing dumb.
Trump did do something’s that I thought were good. He got criminal justice reform passed. He revamped NAFTA. He passed the first CARES act. What we do know is that Trump has little understanding and no respect for the Constitution. We heard that not just from talking heads in MSNBC but members of his former administration. People like Gen. Mattis and even from people who loathe liberals like John Bolton have said that Trump is unfit for offices. Biden is old and gaffe prone but we’ve yet to hear a former member of his cabinet of senior advisor say he’s unfit for office and a threat to the Consritution. The fact is that no major Democrat has stepped forward to challenge Biden. We can hope that things would be different but ultimately it’s up to people like Newsome, Whitmer and etc if they want to run and none of them have. In the meantime while I think Dean Phillips is a good and very capable candidate he’s gotten no traction at all.
I said I would vote for a toaster over Trump. A lot of people don’t like Turnips but who doesn’t like toast!
We also need to remember that this hasn’t just been a caretaker presidency. Biden legislatively has probably been the most consequential president since LBJ. And while some might like to compare Ukraine to Vietnam Biden has kept US troops out of it. Certainly there are a lot of problems and the Biden administration has made mistakes when compared to the last few presidencies it’s been very good.
Ever since Nate Silver was let go (and consequently lost control of his own website), he's been a fairly bitter and overly contrarian person. I have tremendous respect for him as he did a lot to create the modern methods and techniques for election forecasting. I started working in elections at roughly the same time and all of his work was hugely influential in our creating stronger data driven campaigns. With that said, he went from his word being treated as gospel to losing his website and platform entirely. And as a result he's become quite bitter and has really been reduced to throwing out hot takes instead of the more thorough and nuanced analysis that 538 does. Frankly, its a pretty sad fall but honestly it isn't that surprising.
good article on Operation Warp Speed https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/10/operation-warp-speed-covid-19-vaccine
