I would still prioritize Bregman over Tucker. If Dezenzo looks to be for real this year obviously that helps, but he has moved around a bit position wise I think? If the bat is there we will have a spot And it likely will cost a LOT more to extend Tucker than Bregman I think CF generally underestimates Bregman's value quite a bit
I couldn't agree more. I already have Dezenzo penciled in at third for 2025 and expect him to be on every ones top prospect list by the end of this season. If Bregman is extended I will not be surprised to see Dezenzo at 1st base and Abreu's contract moved to pay Bregman.
The good thing about Brown is he has the ability to be a dominant reliever even if he doesn’t pan out to be a quality starting pitcher. That said, having Verlander back to serve as a mentor this season will greatly help him since he models his pitching style after him.
Agreed. Unless J.P. France craps the bed in Spring Training, he’s likely beginning the year in the Astros’ rotation because he profiles better as a starter than a reliever. Also, having plus stuff is great, but it alone doesn’t get hitters out. France is a bulldog on the mound who battles and competes. The Astros have seven possible starting pitching options for five or six spots. Verlander, Valdez, Javier are locks, and I’m sure they want Hunter Brown to stay a starter for now. The big elephant in the room is Lance McCullers, Jr. and his health. If healthy, what is the best role for a guy that mussed all of last season and the majority of 2022. Is it starting? Or could it involve being a multi-inning weapon out of the bullpen a couple times a week?
Once Jose Abreu swallowed his pride and went on the IL for a back injury, he started hitting with far more power. He hit some big home runs against the Twins in the Division Series. Before he went on the IL, Abreu was basically swinging with all arms and not involving his lower half in his swing.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Garcia and McCullers tandem start, paired with France and Urquidy in a 6 man rotation. Would keep everybody in the rotation fresh, keep 8 guys stretched out in case of injuries, and give McCullers and Garcia some experience coming out of the bullpen every other turn so that they’re used to it in case they are used as RP in the playoffs.
I agree that Bregman is much more valuable and important to the Astros success than Tucker. I would actually say that he's even more important (on field only) to keep than even Altuve. Of the 7 major players who will be FA the next 2 seasons (J. Abreu, Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Verlander, Valdez, and Pressly) Alex plays the position with the fewest potential replacements in the system. My idea of their most likely next contract: Abreu: 1 yr/$8M w/ possible option. Altuve: 5 yrs/$100M Bregman: 8 yrs/$220M Tucker: 10 yrs/$300M Verlander: 1 yr/$25M (if not retired) to get 300 Valdez: 7 yrs/$154M Pressly: 3 yrs/$45M if I were to rate them based on who is most likely to actually perform to the level of the contract I would say Altuve slightly ahead of Bregman then Tucker. That's only because I expect him to be good the first 2-3 years of the deal and make it before falling off. If I were to rate them by who is most likely to still be a 3+ WAR player in the final year of the contract, I would say Bregman slightly ahead of Tucker. Of all 7, I think losing Bregman is the guy hardest to replace, most likely to remain good, and hurts the Astros future results by walking more than any other.
This… As for Dezenzo, doesn’t matter how high he is ranked on a prospect list. He is a prospect until he is not. Astros held onto Whitley when they could have landed Realmuto…. With that said, I hope Dezenzo performs well.
Good idea. You would need someone to tandem start with McCullers until Garcia returns in the second half of 2024.
Keeping 8 guys stretched out on the 26 man roster means you have a 5 man bullpen for the 6th-9th innings and Abreu, Hader, and Pressly are totally gassed by October and likely sooner. I agree with the 6 man rotation, but outside of a multi-inning guy who can step in if a starter has to get pulled early, the bullpen needs every leverage arm it can get. It's already short by having 6 in the rotation. I would have a rotation of Framber, JV, Javier, Brown and Urquidy. Have France ready to start whenever there are 6+ consecutive games without a day off. Cut one of the other starters to 4-5 innings and give France 3-4 innings if there are off days. That way the "bullpen" always has 7 guys.
The thing about Dezenzo is that even if he does make the jump and be a good MLB player (my opinion is probably 65-70% chance), 1B could still be his best, and most likely position and one this team will need as badly as 3B.
Keeping 8 guys stretched out means at least 2 of those guys are either in the pen protecting Cerberus or 2 guys in AAA.
Yes, as I stated "keeping 8 guys stretched out on the 26 man roster. . . " So I was specifically talking about problems of none of them being in AAA. Keeping guys stretched out requires them to have 3-5 inning games at least every week and the shorter the outing the fewer days can go by before they must pitch again. In order to win, a team must pitch the best pitchers much more often than the lesser ones. The logistics of keeping 8 guys stretched out at the MLB level would reduce the innings of better SP. Is this team better if J.P. France pitches 120 innings and Verlander, Framber, Javier, and Brown each have 30 fewer innings because of it? Maybe but how much worse were those innings? How does that impact the won/loss record
On SPs pitching less, it isn't needed. Javier, Brown, and lesser SPs aren't going 6 often. The lesser SPs would pitch over RPs that are worse pitchers. Just need a progressive manager that is capable of finding 2 3-inning stints once every rotation with 4 guys in the rotation not going 6.
I’m higher on him than most but ace is a very possible thing to me with him. Like- I don’t have to squint to see it and anyone who says his ceiling is 2 or 3 is selling him short imo. Is 2 or 3 way more probable than ace? Sure.
Verlander looks like more than I would expect- Bregman looks a little light to me if he gets all the way to FA (but might sign that this year) same deal with Tucker- if he plays out the next two season he probably gets more than that but you could probably lock him down for that tomorrow if you were inclined to offer it. I think those are all pretty good. I would not get anywhere near even considering giving Framber that extension but I’d do all of those deals other than him if I were crane.
5 man bullpen wouldn’t be gassed if your starters on the tandem day finished the games they were allowed. Then your 5 man pen only needs to pitch 3 times a week. It’s possible. I think you’d have to commit to potentially punting some games and just saying hey starter #2 you are gonna have to wear it today.
