I can't help thinking this is a fish or cut bait off season for Tucker on an extension. His value will never be higher to the Astros as a trade piece and our chances of retaining him beyond 2024 would be waning. I really don't see any contract beyond 7 seasons coming out of Crane. Those which did were extensions added on to current commitments like Alvarez or Altuve extending while still under contract. He just doesn't seem willing to accept the long term risk at max value beyond mid thirties.
I’m interested to see what the Astros and Espada think of Meyers and Chas. I believe we know they are high on Dubon and I fully expect him to get 500 AB in 24. That still leaves an entire position for Chas and Meyers to fight over.
I'm interested to see if he treats Alvarez as a primary DH or LFer. Crazy Thought: Bring in Ohtani to play DH as a LH bat For this season. 3B Bregman DH Ohtani* 2B Altuve LF Alvarez* 1B Abreu RF Tucker* CF McCormick C Diaz SS Pena OF Meyers IF Kessinger UTI Dubon C2 Salazar Several things which won't happen. The biggest of which is Altuve hitting lower in the order.
My assumption is that based on Espada's background as a middle infielder and appreciation for defense in that area (remember Correa gushing over how hard Espada worked with him and giving him his gold glove?) that the vast majority of Dubon's starts will be there. I hope that he understands that while Dubon is exceptional there, he is only ordinary in the OF. Furthermore, think about this: that terribly disappointing season Pena had was 96 wRC+. This wonderful amazing "gotta get Dubon in the lineup" season was 97 wRC+. Dubon has never had a season where he was even average with the bat and all his value is in his glove. He doesn't walk, run, or hit for power. Why put him in the OF where his glove is just OK? If the Astros do not bring in another position player (other than backup catcher) then I would like to see Dubon start at 2B and Altuve DH more. This doesn't solve the weak bat issue but at least improves the defense. 1B Abreu 80% Kessinger/ Singleton 20% 2B: Altuve 65%, Dubon 35% 3B: Bregman 95% Kessinger 5% SS: Pena 90% Dubon 10% LF: Chas 70% Yordan 30% CF: Meyers 70% Chas 25% Dubon 5% DH: Yordan 65% Altuve 30% Abreu 5%
Absolutely correct on Dubon. His value is in flexibility … not as a “must start” every day player, and certainly not as a CF defensive specialist for fly ball pitchers. I suspect Dana knows this well, and Espada also - we know from 2022 when Dubon was a massive liability with the bat and yet played constantly that Dusty loves him. The strange fetish for Dubon in CF was a Dusty thing that won’t repeat. I like your lineup a lot, but I would still feel better with another OF bat, unless we really want to bet that Meyers takes a leap with regular playing time.
I want another bat also and it's probably needed. This is basically " there's no money we go to war with what we have" I think Meyers CAN make a big Chas-like jump. He has shown it in small samples and improved his K and BB rates in 2023, but it's very tough to bet on it like they will be doing if they don't add someone.
If Meyers doesn't improve by the All Star break, they will either promote Loperfido or possibly even Baez and put Chaz in CF. Remember that Brown will promote guys from the lower levels much more than aggressively than in the past.
Comprehensive plan for 2024 if I was GM and owner of the Astros. Astros current CBT payroll (to the best of my ability to determine) 10 guaranteed contracts= $164,657,470 7 arb players= $38,650,000 ( I took the avg of Cots, Spotrac, and mlbtraderumors.com estimates) 9 prearb players= $6,930,000 Various other expenses= $20,916,667 Total= $231,154,130. ($5,845,870 below CBT) Step #1) sign Altuve to a 6yr /$105M extension which replaces the final year of this deal and keeps him in an Astro uniform - his age 39 season. $17.5M AAV. (now $11,703,013 below CBT) Step #2) trade Justin Dirden and another prospect to Yankees for Kyle Higashioka to be b/u catcher. Yankees need corner OF and LH power and Higashioka is on the block w/ only 1 year of control left. arb estimates. $2.33M but adds $1.56M. (Now $10,143,013 below CBT) Step 3) sign Hector Neris to a 3 yr /$18M deal. Age risk but Pressly, Montero, and Graveman will all be gone after 2025 so it keeps a veteran. He has been very durable which makes it worth the risk. Currently projected to get 2/$15M so the extra $3M guarantee and returning to Astros and contention helps him choose. $6M AAV. (Now $4,913,013 below CBT) Step 4) trade Jose Urquidy to Orioles for Ryan O'Hearn. Orioles need pitching and have tons of position players, with O'Hearn being the cheapest and least valuable to trade, with shortest track record of success and only 1 year of control left vs Urquidy's 2 years. The Astros may actually be able to get a low level prospect like #21 C Creed Williams too because SP is very valuable buy if not its just a side note. Arb. Est. $3.3M vs Urquidy's $3.6M ( now $5,213,013 below CBT) If Astros like a pitcher they can get for that money, fine, otherwise hold on to it for the trade deadline. Roster: C= Diaz 70%, Higashioka 30% 1B= Abreu 70%, O'Hearn 30% 2B= Altuve 75%, Dubon 20%, Kessinger 5% 3B= Bregman 95%, Kessinger 5% SS= Pena 95%, Kessinger 5% LF= Chas 50%, Alvarez 30%, O'Hearn 20% CF= Meyers 50%, Chas 45% Dubon 5% RF= Tucker 95%, O'Hearn 5% DH= Alvarez 65%, Altuve 20%, Abreu 10%, O'Hearn 5% SP: JV, Framber, Javier, Brown, France then some combination of: Bielak, Blanco, Dubin, Arrighetti, or Whitley if 6th man or injury replacement. RP: Pressly, Abreu, Neris, Graveman, Montero. Then some combination of Sousa, Martinez, Mushinski, Ortega, Kuhnel, Gage, and guys above fill out the staff and likely go back and forth between Houston and Sugar Land a lot. Trade deadline: get McCullers and Garcia back + over $5M to get players for the post season run.
If Dubon gets 500 abs this year without a major injury then both Brown and Espada should be fired. He is a good utility guy that can start occasionally. Right now we are a nine deep lineup against LH. Not looking past this year we have only one offensive need and that is an OF that hits RH pitching well.
I see no role for Dubon other than a Marwin Gonzales role. It's GREAT to have a Marwin Gonzales on the bench and to back up for injuries.
Part of the issue is that both Dubon and Meyers hit LHP very well but are basically defensive specialists if a RHP is on the mound. I could appreciate if the team decided to play Dubon at 2B and let Altuve DH, with Yordan in LF with a LHP on the mound, especially with Framber, Brown, or McCullers on the mound as ground ball pitchers. I could also appreciate if the team decided to play Meyers in CF and Chas in LF w/ Yordan DHing vs a LHP on the mound, especially when JV, Javier, Garcia, and/or Urquidy start because they are fly ball pitchers. Meyers has an offensive skill set very similar to Chas'. He strikes out but has power and is a good baserunner. It would be great if he broke out just like Chas did last year and shows he can hit RHP. Dubon won't strikeout often but also takes very few pitches and very rarely walks. He also has considerably less power than Meyers and is essentially a singles hitter who will hit some doubles and give you 5-10 HR. He isn't as fast as either Jake or Chas but is an OK baserunner. The problem is that this team only has 8 players worthy of starting vs RHP which is about 70% of the games. Right now either of these guys starting is basically an automatic out. Furthermore since LHP is only about 30%, if you try both of these plans, it cuts those players starts down to about 15% each. In football there is a saying. " if you have 2 QB you have 0 QB." That applies here as going which both these plans gives neither guy enough playing time to develop into a starter. They need to decide one of them is a bench player who only starts due to injury or scheduled days off for a regular, and then give the other one the platoon starting spot vs LHP. And they need to get a corner OF (if he can also play 1B and even 3B it would be ideal) who can start 70% of the time hitting RHP very well. My preference is benching Dubon. He simply does not have the run producing potential that Meyers does and while both are good with the glove, Meyers is gold glove calibur in CF while Dubon's best position is 2B where Altuve will hopefully play for several more years.
