“Seven players in this year’s free agent class have been tagged with the qualifying offer…” Shohei Ohtani (Angels) Cody Bellinger (Cubs) Matt Chapman (Blue Jays) Sonny Gray (Twins) Josh Hader (Padres) Aaron Nola (Phillies) Blake Snell (Padres)
Like I said, I think they should go into the tax. Crane has said he is willing to do it in the past.... so do it. The willingness to do it for the right player is just lip service to me until it happens. Last season was the perfect year to do it and we fell one game short of the World Series.
Only thing I would argue against this is that if we were around that 97 win mark, we likely wouldn’t have had to ride Framber/Javier and other pitchers so hard down the stretch I hope they hire a new manager soon and talk of the new will put an end to the Dusty talk
No doubt Some of us just don’t think he will do it He has talked about it several times but hasn’t done it. Myself and some others would have to see it before we believe it I hope you are right and he doesn’t consider it a big deal
The concept of trying to stay under the luxury tax is a made up concept perpetuated by owners who want an excuse to save money. There is no basis in reality that you can't spend what you want to spend. If the threshold was moved to $275 million tomorrow would Crane spend that much? If so, then just spend $265 and pay the penalty and pretend like the threshold is $275
It looks more and more like it's going to be very tricky to get under the CBT threshhold in 2024 and also in 2025. 2024- Currently only under $1,831,190 according to Cots Cotracts estimate and still need at least a backup catcher and bullpen help. The only way I can see to save money is to trade away arb eligible or guaranteed contracts in exchange for prospects, or possibly sign Altuve to a team friendly lower AAV contract and rip up 2024. Then in 2025, the only guaranteed Free agents are Altuve and Bregman, both who the team want to resign/extend (if Brown can be believed) and Graveman's $8M. JV's option vests w/140 IP and a passed physical, Pressly's vests w/ 50g pitched. Both of those should happen unless 2024 goes badly for 1 or both of them. So 2025 could have the roster losing only $8M and huge raises to several players via arbitration. To be honest, big and unexpected changes will need to happen to avoid the penalty in both years.
MLBtraderumors put out their predictions for the top 50 free agents. Some of the projected salaries are crazy. I just skimmed through it quickly. Only players I saw predicted to the Astros were Jorge Soler and Aroldis Chapman. 3 years 45 million for Soler and 2 years 24 million for Chapman. HELL NO to both. Here are the craziest ones I saw Cody Bellinger. Twelve years, $264MM Tim: Yankees / Anthony: Giants / Darragh: Giants Jordan Montgomery. Six years, $150MM Tim: Rangers / Anthony: Mets / Darragh: Giants Matt Chapman. Six years, $150MM Tim: Giants / Anthony: Phillies / Darragh: Cubs https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html
Jung Hoo Lee seems interesting at that price. I’d be ok with Houston giving Jordan Hicks $40M/4yrs. Same for Garver at $39M/3yrs. Stephenson at $36M/4yrs is a riskier deal but could end up being a very good value; same for Yariel Rodriguez.
I don't like Chapman, but he's a good fit. Don't see us spending money on Soler given he is RH and not good defensively.
I'd be all over Jung Hoo Lee at that price. He's supposedly an above average defensive center fielder. The last Korean player to come over just won a gold glove and was probably a top 5 or 10 MVP in the NL this year. I think the recent success of Korean League players boxes well for him coming over and performing. Great bat to ball skills. I don't see much downside to it.
The only thing "twelve years" Bellinger would be sniffing is a scotch. Of course Wander Franco would sniff a completely different "twelve years"
What happens in 2025 is going to be very contingent on how 2024 ends. The Mets also pay a large part of Verlander’s contract and the Astros can move contracts if necessary. There are no guarantees but the Astros going over the line in 2024 doesn’t doom them to many years of being over the threshold.
Not at the numbers being thrown around… on a high value contract? I think they would take the risk. He is not well liked by his teammates but in recent years he has just taken a lower profile. I love the velocity but the guy is basically filling your gas tank while holding a ball of fire.
The link to Soler is because the Astros were very interested in him last year. When he is healthy his bat is nasty. He is a bad fielder… but I could see the Astros signing him believing he is a good value if they use him properly. From what I have heard, the most likely players to the Astros would be Rodriguez… the Astros really like him. I’ll be curious to see how it all plays out…
