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2023/24 Projections and Predictions thread

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by jim1961, Oct 6, 2023.

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Which 5 teams will the Rockets be better than?

  1. San Antonio Spurs

    81.4%
  2. Portland Trail Blazers

    83.7%
  3. Utah Jazz

    55.8%
  4. Dallas Mavericks

    29.1%
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder

    34.9%
  6. New Orleans Pelicans

    40.7%
  7. Minnesota Timberwolves

    37.2%
  8. Los Angeles Lakers

    16.3%
  9. Los Angeles Clippers

    20.9%
  10. Other (specify)

    12.8%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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  2. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    That season 21/22 they averaged 35.8% (3P%) between:
    Tatum/Jalen B/Smart/D White/ Horford/ G Williams/Pritchard [ 7 players ] 35.8% (3P%)

    In 5 preseason games Rockets main group averaged 30.3%:
    Dillon/Whitmore/Amen/Sengun/Eason/Bullock/Tate/Bari/Jalen G./Vv [ 10 players ]
    40 (3PM) / 132 (3PA).....and this is overinflated by Eason 1-2 and Tate 2-3.


    The breakdown: (preseason games):
    Dillon Brooks: 4-17 in 4 games (24%)
    Whitmore: 6-22 in 5 games (27%)
    Amen: 3-12 in 5 games (25%)
    Sengun: 1-9 in 5 games (11%)
    Jalen Green: 3-14 in 3 games (21%)
    Jabari Smith: 12-26 in 5 games (46%)
    VanVleet: 7-19 in 4 games (37%)

    Eason: 1-2 in 2 games (50%)
    Tate: 2-3 in 5 games (67%)
    ______________________________________
    ............................................ = 30.3%

    Take out Eason (50%) and Tate (67%)
    ............................................. = 29.1% from 3 by mostly our starters

    Tatum took 8.6 attempts per game that season for his 35.3%
    Jaylen Brown was 7.0 attempts per game that year for his 35.8%
    Smart was 5.1 for his 33.1%
    D White was 30.6% and 4.3 attempts
    Horford was 33.6% and 3.8 attempts per game

    Yes Grant Williams came off the bench for 41.1% on 3.4 attempts
    and
    Pritchard was 41.2% on 3.5 attempts per game.

    It was the attempts that go with the percentage that teams respect. Teams feel they can
    overcome a player averaging over 40% if said player just shoots one attempt. Teams
    have to be good enough to overcome those 3 points by games end.

    Who off the bench will be Pritchard or Grant Williams? Bullock was 37%
    on over 4 attempts last year.....but so far has been poor at 1-8 for 13%
     
    #102 ApacheWarrior, Oct 22, 2023
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2023
    BaselineFade likes this.
  3. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    I think Memphis is likely falling out of the Top 3......Top 6 now.
     
  4. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title
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    Ok here is my very unscientific regular season standings prediction:

    (Note: I made this list before I knew about Steven Adams's injury and I'm too lazy to edit it.)

    1. Bucks
    2. Celtics
    3. Nuggets
    4. Suns
    5. Cavs
    6. 76ers
    7. Grizzlies
    8. Warriors
    9. Lakers
    10. Wolves
    11. Thunder
    12. Knicks
    13. Clippers
    14. Heat
    15. Kings
    16. Hawks
    17. Mavs
    18. Pelicans
    19. Pacers
    20. Magic
    21. Raptors
    22. Nets
    23. Bulls
    24. Jazz
    25. Blazers
    26. Spurs
    27. Rockets
    28. Pistons
    29. Hornets
    30. Wizards

    West:

    1. Nuggets
    2. Suns
    3. Grizz
    4. Warriors
    5. Lakers
    6. Wolves
    7. Thunder
    8. Clippers
    9. Kings
    10. Mavs
    11. Pelicans
    12. Jazz
    13. Blazers
    14. Spurs
    15. Rockets

    East:

    1. Bucks
    2. Celtics
    3. Cavs
    4. 76ers
    5. Knicks
    6. Heat
    7. Hawks
    8. Pacers
    9. Magic
    10. Raptors
    11. Nets
    12. Bulls
    13. Pistons
    14. Hornets
    15. Wizards
     
    #104 Haymitch, Oct 22, 2023
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2023
    B-Bob likes this.
  5. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
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    Grizzlies lost one of my favorite players to injury for the season (Steven Adams). Feel bad for him, that’s a really tough injury but if anyone can handle it he can.

    Selfishly I do wonder if that drops Memphis into playin territory. With Morant missing a part of the season, a bit of roster turnover and Adams out for the season it’s going to be rough. I’m pretty confident we can compete with that team during the regular season.
     
  6. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    That would be a complete and total disappointment to everyone except OKC who would have a 51.9% chance at a pick between 5 and 8.
     
  7. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...season-preview-rankings-predictions-odds-more

    26. Houston Rockets

    When we last saw them ... The Rockets had the West's worst record for the third straight season, matching the Spurs at 22-60. Houston bid farewell to head coach Stephen Silas after his three-year contract expired.

    Owner Tilman Fertitta trumpeted the hiring of head coach Ime Udoka as the start of "Phase 2" of the Rockets' rebuild, emphasizing that he expects Houston to be competitive again this season. The Rockets spent heavily in free agency for a group of veterans headlined by Fred VanVleet (three years, $128.5 million) and Dillon Brooks (four years, $86 million). Houston also selected Amen Thompson with the franchise's third straight top-four pick.

    The infusion of veteran experience raises the Rockets' floor beyond basement level, and the hope is that the free agent additions will help guide Houston's crop of talented youth. The development of those high-upside young players -- particularly Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun and Thompson -- remains the most important issue for the franchise. -- MacMahon

    Win-loss projections
    ESPN Forecast: 29-53
    Caesars: 32.5 wins | Title odds: +30000

    Rockets in NBArank
    Fred VanVleet (56)
    Jalen Green (80)

    Number to watch: 29th in defensive rating.

    After finishing dead last defensively in 2021-22, the Rockets showed limited improvement a year ago, a sign of their general lack of seriousness during a rebuild. With the arrival of Ime Udoka and veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, Houston is now committed to trying to win. Even more so than wins, how much the Rockets climb in terms of defensive rating will be telling on how quickly the culture can change. -- Pelton

    Major decision on the horizon: The Rockets were aggressive in the offseason, reshaping the team with Ime Udoka and nine new players, including veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks.

    With half of the roster unable to be traded until mid-December and the other half consisting of former lottery picks, including Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson, expect Houston to preach patience in the early part of the season.

    The Rockets do have valuable trade assets in Jae'Sean Tate's $6.5 million contract, two unprotected first-round picks from Brooklyn and five seconds. -- Marks

    Best bet: Jalen Green over 23.0 points per game (-120).

    When Green was drafted number two overall in 2021, he was touted as the best pure scorer in that draft. He improved from 17.3 PPG as a rookie to 22.1 PPG as a sophomore, and finished the season by averaging 23.2 PPG in his last 36 games.

    Green can score at all three levels, from knocking down an average of 2.5 3-pointers to his high-flying finishes at the rim where he drew an average of 6.1 field goal attempts last season. The 21-year old should continue to improve in his third NBA season. -- Snellings
     
    i3artow i3aller and B-Bob like this.
  8. AroundTheWorld

    AroundTheWorld Insufferable 98er
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    All I can say is that I am much more excited about the upcoming season than I was in the Silas/KPJ/Nix years. There is hope now!
     
  9. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    They predict Houston in the low 30s wins with Utah. Ahead of Spurs and Blazers.
     
  10. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    25. Houston Rockets

    What do we like?
    All of this young talent with Ime Udoka directing everything. No offense to Stephen Silas, but he just couldn’t get this done. Now, they’ll have more veterans and a coach with a short but successful track record. It won’t all be fixed right away, but Udoka will preach and practice on-court accountability for these guys. Their focus will be immensely better compared to last season.

    What do we question? Is this team going to be able to score efficiently? There are many moving parts as Udoka finds the rotation he trusts: a lot of individual talent that didn’t play well as a cohesive unit last season, and adding two key veterans who both shot less than 40 percent from the field. There’s a lot to like here, but the Rockets need some time.

    One random prediction: Dillon Brooks reaches 20 technical fouls.

    Key Stats
    Record
    22-60
    Offensive Rating
    110.5 (27th)
    Defensive Rating
    118.6 (29th)
    Net Rating
    -8.1
     
  11. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    Just Portland for me.....I think we are gonna be right there with SA etc...but too close to call.

    DD
     
  12. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    There’s a ton of parity in the west this year, you could be the “14th worst” and still be <5 games away from the 8th seed. Asking “who are the Rockets better then” does not help in answering what their record will be. There may not be a 50 win team in the west, with 12 teams in the 40s win range.
     
    Ancient Moabite likes this.
  13. thekad

    thekad Member

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    They’re still bad. Give up a top 5 pick to OKC.

    Little improvement, bad contracts.
     
  14. kingkingston

    kingkingston Member

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    Anything less than at least 30 wins will be a disappointment
     
  15. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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  16. i3artow i3aller

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  17. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Windy is totally unwatchable or unlistenable when he is lethargic.
     
  18. Williamson

    Williamson JOSH CHRISTOPHER ONLY FAN
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    I see 6 or 7 teams that I would expect to be better, barring a series of unfortunate events. And there is always a team or two who has bad breaks. Let's just hope it isn't us.
     
  19. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    If the Rockets get a top 5 pick there's an 80% chance it's being kept. There's also an 80% chance Stone won't be around to take more swings and misses if that's the case.
     
  20. thegary

    thegary Contributing Member

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    My prediction is that the rockets will be infinitely more watchable.
     

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