Just seems like the main properties being pushed with Bitcoin are very similar to gold, which is probably why so many people (including many/most Bitcoiners) re-use flawed gold standard arguments from decades ago. I'm not sure there's a huge meaningful difference at the core between the two....in fact, I might even prefer gold over Bitcoin in many ways (if not overall). Kinda hard for me to figure out how Bitcoin > Fiat > Gold, and that's really the only way this could really work.
think about this; with a few keystrokes, someone can create as much wealth as it took you a lifetime to earn the negative downstream consequences of that are felt in all aspects of life
Hadn't thought about that. Alright, let's go back to the gold standard. That will fix that issue and all that is wrong with money.
i mean use of the fiat system and what the US has done in finance since 2000 is what's allowed the US to maintain #1 in the world. Just comparing the EU vs US since 2008 financial crisis. The EU and US were about equal in GDP, today the US has an 80% larger GDP in only 15 years. That's insane. Of course other factors contribute to growth ie: less stringent working conditions in US. having said that economies can grow too fast and that has drawbacks but you can't ignore the dominance the US financial system has on a global scale. wouldn't have the same growth on a gold standard. fiat needs regulation changes over time to continue being successful for the masses.
I watched this yesterday, and yeah I definitely thought of this thread. The story behind this video (with the meme stocks and all) is very different from Bitcoin/Crypto. But from a psychological standpoint, I think there are some striking similarities (and they also are shared with flat earthers, QAnon, etc., which Dan also already covered). Pushing DYOR/DD over expert opinion, social media influences, conspiratorial thinking, excessive overconfidence in being right, etc. Tried to illustrate this earlier, but IMO you don't want to share too many similarities with these other groups. -------------------------------- Completely random note, but trying to check out Lyn Alden (part of doing my own research, and I've seen her mentioned a lot). I do like her talks more than others, though I haven't quite gotten into her talks about why Bitcoin is so great (mostly just history stuff). I will say she throws out weird ideas that I'm not sure really make much sense. Heard her say something about how since we've gone to Fiat currency, there haven't been any developing countries that transitioned into a developed country (except for the ones that did). Ignoring the "Except for the times I'm wrong, I'm right" logic, I'm not sure those are super defined classifications, and I'm also not sure exactly how many countries you should expect to transition between groups in a period of time (especially since this is not a vacuum). Is there an expectation that every country should become "developed" given enough time? I'm not sure so sure that's a given. Of course, I'm not convinced this is all due to evil Fiat money polices either (especially given the unique circumstances behind some of these countries, at least some of which began long before the switch to Fiat). Just kinda ranting, but yeah it is this type of thinking that bugs me when I try to listen to these arguments. And don't get me started on the host guy who said something like "we need more critical thinking taught in schools...oh but stop teaching science/math, those are useless." That kinda tells me all I need to know about the critical/logical thinking skills from some of the people pushing Bitcoin.
Saylor can bring up all the analogies about oxygen, blood, houses in the Hamptons, etc., but I'm not sure his rambling is all that compelling compared to descriptions from actual economists: (just random video I watched recently, probably better ones elsewhere) It always seems like inflation only occurs because of "money printer goes vroom" and not the reasons economists typically give (which seems more accurate to me). Not to mention that sometimes inflation is a marker for these issues, not necessarily the cause (correlation != causation, but again these folks love Spurious Correlations). I'll keep watching, but found this Reddit thread that already seems to debunk the stuff he's saying (because he's said the same thing over and over I guess...and yet I had to watch the one with Tucker Carlson's dumb face):
I don't put a lot of stock in what social scientists have to say. Regardless of whether the inflation rate is 2% or 20%, the baseline facts remain. Fiat is a melting ice cube that is centrally controlled and therefore suffers all the vulnerabilities and liabilities that come with that, Bitcoin has true scarcity and is forever appreciating against all other assets because it is indestructible and incorruptible. Debate about practicality of currency aside, there is no better place to store your long term wealth.
Yeah I know you (and probably a lot of Bitcoiners/Crypto folks) don't trust experts, especially if they disagree with your conclusions. I operate differently. Maybe at least partly due to the fact I don't have to see them talk on Tucker Carlson, but I can probably even ignore that and come to the same conclusion. We'll have to agree to disagree on this fundamental point I guess.
I trust experts in scientific fields because their expertise is verifiable and demonstrable. I do not trust 'experts' in non-scientific fields because their 'expertise' cannot be verified nor demonstrated. Bitcoin is an emergent phenomenon. If you're going around checking credentials looking for your "bitcoin expert", you're going to be searching for a long time. You're going to be searching even longer if you spend time looking in places like the liberal arts arena (where economics resides). Reason from first principles. Learn what money is. Learn what fiat is. Learn what Bitcoin is. Learn the relationship between them. Things will become clearer after that. If you sit around waiting for a famous 'economist' (nearly all of whom are Keynesian and therefore break out in hives at the mere mention of Bitcoin) to tell you what to think you're going to suffer. Edit: I just watched your video and this 'expert' claims that Bitcoin is effectively the biggest fiat money out there, has no intrinsic value, and that it is entirely based on trust, same as fiat. This is 100% incorrect. Bitcoin is not based on trust, it is based on verifiable math and cryptography, and its value is derived from energy. Bitcoin requires no trust whatsoever to operate or participate in. Again, this is what chasing 'experts' gets you. Stop looking for someone else to tell you what to think. If you study the fundamentals of money, fiat, and bitcoin, you learn how to spot these types of errors that give rise to inevitably flawed conclusions.
I ran across Lyn very early on before she became really popular, back when you could email her and she would respond. She is largely the one who drew me into macro economics. At that time, she was still skeptical of Bitcoin. That said, I have discovered with Lyn and her Super Frens context and nuance can get into the shady gray. For example, 'What is money?' or 'What is fiat'. Also the whole eurodollar topic. She is not perfect but she is very informative. I still laugh when she suggested bank stocks were the next big thing and a week later SVB fails ... then she says "well i was referring to big banks. I wasn't researching regional banks".
Saylor understands bitcoin very well. That said, his analogies become so abstract that he takes away from the message. I dont recommend people listen to Saylor. Inflation occurs when there is a supply/demand differential. Thats it. It can occur in numerous different ways and they can compound on each other. Unfortunately it turns into a conversation, like you mentioned With Lyn Alden, the definition is right until it isnt right. The problem with experts is they are forced to talk in absolutes and have zero room to pivot. In this case, the experts are always wrong because the system is constantly evolving. Example: Inflation occurs because [enter random outdated belief structure]. Reality: Largest aging population is heading into retirement, spending more money while birthrates are declining. Automation helps offset this imbalance. But instead, experts say supply chain disruptions due to COVID caused the sharp rise in inflation while the Wall Street Bets Millennials are accusing the money printer. Meanwhile, macro 'gurus' like Jeff Snyder claim eurodollar imbalances are the problem. Investors are terrified of high interest rates and oncoming recession, so they can not confidently deploy capital. Small and medium businesses are terrified of not being able to find help from the labor shortage so they are holding onto workers who should have been let go months ago. Jpowell says he will raise rates until something breaks. Nobody knows whats going on with the real estate market, which should have tanked months ago. The truth: Global economics is a mess and being treated like a reality TV show. Nobody really knows how its going to turn out. So just buy Bitcoin and hold forever! 1 Bitcoin will = 1 planet in 200 years.
