Some potential season milestones to look for: Alex: 2 more R for 100 3 more doubles for 30 1 more HR for 25 4 more RBI for 100 Tucker: 10 more R for 100 2 more HR for 30 2 more SB for 30 Alvarez: 2 more HR for 30 7 more RBI for 100 Chas: 1 more SB for 20 and 20/20 Yainer: 2 more HR for 25.
I only know what I heard around the break, and that was it is Dusty's choice. Do I know if it is Dusty's choice if we lose the division or don't make the playoffs? No - I don't know how Crane will react. So far Brown has been very careful navigating the Dusty Baker situation - some of it is out of respect for Dusty and I am sure some of it is to keep the peace while the season is still going. I have said before - even if the Astros some how make the WS (I would be very surprised), this is going to be a very important off season where the pitching side will need to be addressed by the GM who will have to make a couple big moves - be it another starter or a couple of pen arms. Some in the organization want Hunter Brown in the bullpen - does Brown decide to put Brown in the pen and then go out and get a #4 or #5 innings eater that is mediocre but likely wins with the Astros offense, or does he look for a few relief pitchers to rehabilitate. Where does Urquidy end up? Some in the Astros already wanted Garcia in the pen - does he end up there? Does both Brown and Garcia end up in the pen with the Astros trying to establish the best and deepest pen in baseball? Seems unlikely. How much pitching help can the Astros count on next year from their minors?
This just sounds so weird to me. Pitchers have ups and downs. Hunter Brown is in a funk in which every fly ball seems to be a 2- or 3-run homer and then he gets scared to throw strikes. Garcia's velo was slightly down (early in the season and just before an injury), but everything except his fastball was looking good. The Astros would need to get some great starters to make moving them to the pen worth it.
Yeah, if we were in an alternate universe where McCullers was fully healthy and putting the finishing touches on a borderline cy young season, then I could see entertaining moving Brown and/or Garcia to the pen. In that scenario you’d have your 3 playoff starters (JV, Framber, McCullers) and 3 BoR guys (Javier, France, Urquidy), with an insane 6-deep pen (Pressly, Abreu, Brown, Garcia, Montero, Graveman) I would be ok with introducing Garcia back as a RP next season since he will be coming off of injury, but Brown is young enough with good enough stuff to reasonably expect him to improve, possibly by a lot. He should continue to be a starter unless there is an extremely compelling reason to make a change.
Was it Garcia's last start where he went full cutter and got the most whiffs of anyone using their cutter in a single appearance in the statcast era? I agree on Brown - imo, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's a more effective SP next season than JV. He has had ups and downs but overall the performance has been pretty solid. Both of those guys seem to slot in as MORPs without any additional development with upside for more. That kind of value can't be replicated out of the pen. Something to consider - JV has a DRA-/cFIP this season of 109/107 while Hunter Brown has a DRA-/cFIP of 81/84. That's pretty ****ing good.
I am interested in seeing how the pitching staff is built/adjusted this offseason. I think a 6 man rotation for 162 games would be the most beneficial for this team. Framber really looks like the only guy who may be just as good on 4 days rest over the entire season. Couple this with JV's age, Javier and Brown's lower inning history, and McCullers and Garcia's injury issues and 6 is better than 5 and depth at AAA is needed. To me Urquidy has regressed to a #7/swingman type of starter who may actually need to be in AAA part of the season to stay stretched out. Framber, JV, McCullers, Javier, Brown, and France take regular rotation spots. Some combination of Urquidy, Bielak, Blanco, Dubin, Whitley, Arrighetti and who knows who are ready to step in if needed. I see Garcia becoming a Bryan Abreu-esque high leverage reliever. (Quick credit to @Nook on this) his stuff could play up if focused to 1-2 innings and he could be a monster 6-7 inning guy who becomes an 8-9 inning guy by 2025. It's much better than him on the end of the bench in the playoffs as a middling SP. Pressly, Abreu, Graveman, Montero, and Garcia could be a formidable bullpen especially after losing Neris, Stanek, and Maton without any young guys really stepping up when given the chance in 2023. *I maintain that if limited to 25 starts and 160 IP then McCullers can stay healthy and pitch to his career levels (top notch #2 SP in the #3 spot) and end up being a huge contributor the next several years.
It is weird, and I don't think it will happen - possibly one of them, but not both. It is built more for the post season. The reason I bring it up is that there are more than a couple people in the Astros organization that have felt that Garcia would ultimately end up in the pen, where his velocity plays up and he can be elite. There were even discussions of this last year. Similar things have been said about Hunter Brown as well. He has been hit hard in the second half, the OPS against him is .860 in the second half and on the season righties have an OPS approaching .800. His fastball has not been nearly as good deeper in games as well. In the pen the Astros are likely losing Neris and Maton and while Montero will be given a shot, he hasn't been effective enough overall. That leaves: Pressly/Abreu/Graveman as likely leverage relievers - they will need 2-3 more relievers. The Astros should have in the rotation: Verlander, Valdez, Javier, JP France (who has an era of around 3 outside of the 10 run game) The Astros will also have McCullers coming back and Urquidy. There just are not enough rotation spots for all the possible starters...... Verlander/Valdez/Javier/France/Brown/Garcia/McCullers/Urquidy That is 8 pitchers fighting for 5 spots. Even if we take Urquidy out of the running, that is 7 starts - at least 1-2 will not be in the rotation, and at that point you start to consider how good various pitchers potentially are out of the pen. Garcia and Brown are the two that the Astros really like in short inning outings. The Astros can also likely get a #5 type guy that can eat a lot of innings with a middling ERA for not a lot of money. Brown and Garcia cover two bullpen leverage spots at little money. I am not saying the Astros will take this tact but I do think it is possible at least one of them ends up in the pen in high leverage spots.... Then again I heard only 3-4 days ago that the Astros are willing to spend money this Winter for the "right player", and that an example of the player the Astros covet and will likely be involved with is Josh Hader...... which surprised me.
Part of the issue is that I do not consider Javier a BOR pitcher next year. It is very obvious that he is exhausted. Before last year, Javier never pitched more than 113 innings in a year, and in the minors averaged about 75-80 innings a year. Then in 2020 for the Astros he pitched around 50 innings... 2021 he pitched 100 innings.... in 2022 he pitched 160 innings, including the WS and then pitched in the WBC as well..... this year he started off strong again, with an era in the 2.00's before he hit the wall...... he is on pace to pitch around 180 innings if he pitches deep into the post season.... He isn't like Valdez or a younger Verlander.... he isn't a horse like that. He gives you less innings, but they are very good innings, even dominant.... he just needs rest sometimes.
2024 pitching staff: SP: Framber, Verlander, Brown, France, Javier, Urquidy, McCullers RP: Hader, Pressly, Abreu, Garcia, Graveman, Montero That is a STACKED pitching staff. Bielak and Whitley are out of options so can be given a shot until Garcia and McCullers are healthy. Urquidy can stay stretched out to give Javier (or any other SP) a skipped turn when needed. Hader, Pressly, Abreu, and Garcia would be lock down RP with Graveman and Montero likely to be serviceable with upside to be elite. AAA doesn’t have any likely studs but should be plenty of deep to supply quality BoR SP and MR as needed (Arrighetti, Dubin, Gordon, Blanco, Kouba, Gage, Mushinski, Sousa, etc.)
Is Garcia even going to pitch next year? He had surgery on May 19th and it take a year before you can start pitching again. Then is takes a few months to pitch to get back to where you were before. Think I heard someone say it is really an 18 month process. So that would be all of next year. At best I can see him pitching in the minors for a few months and might be next year's September call up (similar to Brantley this year). McCullers on the other hand I have no clue about. Could be ready for ST or miss the entire year. I simply haven't heard what the recovery time is for his injury or even what the injury is.
I'd go Valdez/Verlander/Javier/Brown/Garcia/McCullers until McCullers is hurt. Urquidy would be used as a long man or traded, and France optioned to AAA as a holding pattern. Astros should be really strong next season as they really only need to add relief pitchers and a backup catcher*. Translation: The Mets/Yankees/etc are going to go crazy for starting pitching, and Crane will say to rich for my blood unless the Astros are able to make a trade.
I was thinking a little over a year for some reason. You are right, Garcia probably isn't in the equation for next year.
From Web M.D. Dr. Tyler Wheeler 1/27/2022 the final phase of rehabilitation, patients typically take these steps with their surgeon's approval: About 4 or 5 months after surgery, athletes may toss a ball without a wind-up motion. After 6 months, athletes may start to use an easy wind-up when throwing. After 7 months, baseball pitchers may return to the mound. After 9 months, pitchers may throw in competition if they are pain-free and have regained their normal strength and range of motion. He also says this is best case scenario and typical Full recovery is 12-14 months and can take as long as 2 years. 14 months is essentially the All Star break.
Counting on McCullers to ever be healthy for even half a season is wishful thinking. Urquidy has been awful and should probably not be on the team next year. Next year’s rotation should be Framber, Verlander, Garcia, Brown, France and Javier. They should look to fill out their bullpen via the minors or trade. Isn’t there a minor league pitcher that has an awesome fb and sinker combo that would make for a great reliever?
My current guess based on everything I have seen is that the reasonable best case expectation would be for Garcia to be back in July (but more likely back right around/after the All-Star break), with McCullers coming back in August (but more likely just for the tail end of the season), with the big time caveat that given his history he could not come back at all next year. Based on that, I would think it’s reasonable to pencil Garcia into a meaningful role next season (either as a 4/5 SP or in a significant bullpen setup/multi-inning role), with the understanding that there needs to be a fairly competent and flexible player in his place until he’s healthy (this is where I think it works to Houston’s advantage to have dynamic DFA/trade fodder like Urquidy, Bielak, and Whitley, along with quality AAA depth pieces). McCullers should not be counted on for anything, other than taking into account that he will occupy a 40 man spot until the season starts; anything he provides in 2024 would be gravy.
