I think Aaron Holiday will get minutes simply because I think Amen and Cam are a little green behind their ears. For all the Play In hype it is only 1 game or if you advance 2 games.
OKC went from worst record to 4rth seed in Durant's 3rd year lol. While obviously nobody on our team projects to be a generational talent like KD, we still have 2 vets in their prime as well as Sengun and Green in their 3rd year and JaTari in their 2nd and KPJ in his 4rth. There's no more room for excuses IMO esp if we think Green and Sengun are max guys. I think Rox should win at least 38 games and be in the play in mix. If they win less than 30 games next year we got a bunch busts in the draft and the rebuild has failed, it's time to pack up, fire everybody and trade everyone.
Fertitta is a paper tiger, if that happens then only Stone would be fired and that is not a guarantee. He might be a good businessman but not a great bball visionary. And the Aussie player at the World Cup would be the one that is right about the Rockets. https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/rockets-are-not-a-good-team-according-to-an-aussie-player.320831/
But yeah when we think about scraping our way in, we shouldn't forget that teams having serious injury problems is very possible. For as deep as the West is, it also has a lot of old/injury-prone teams. Three of the four California teams are old and anchored by stars who are past their prime years and into the danger zone where recovering from injuries becomes much harder. Very possible that their stars have season or even career-ending injuries. Phoenix is almost in the same boat, KD is going to be 35 and Beal is in his 30s. Booker is still young, but he hasn't been without his injury struggles in the past. Everyone knows Zion can't stay healthy in New Orleans, but Ingram has been increasingly injury-prone as well. I don't wish injury on anyone, but odds are at least one or two of these teams will find themselves in the cellar due to injury problems. And that's before you even factor in the possibility of other random fluke injuries around the conference. If it ends up being three teams getting really unlucky and crushed by injury problems and the like, and you assume Portland and San Antonio are effectively tanking, you're already looking at 10th seed, especially if we slightly exceed expectations and get like 37 wins instead of the 33ish I'm expecting.
I think the Rockets will finish ahead of the T-wolves, Jazz, Spurs, and Portland. The question is if they can finish ahead of one more team to make the playin. It won't be easy but one of those 11 teams we rank above the Rockets will most likely falter/disappoint through injuries or whatever. New Orleans for example is a very mediocre team when Zion is hurt, which is the norm. Kyrie gets hurt quite often, as do the Clipper stars, as do the Laker stars. There's also no guarantee that OKC doesn't take a step back as Chet figures out how to play in the NBA. There's no guarantee that Memphis doesn't implode without Ja for an extended stretch. Yes it's quite possible the Rockets win 33 games next year. But I don't think Udoka and company are setting their goal for 33 wins, and I don't think they expect to win that few. Being young is not an excuse for Udoka. You brought in the vets to make sure they play the right way. The defense will be there even if the chemistry is not. We're so used to bad coaching and dysfunction we can't imagine normalcy. That's why I think the Rockets will win 40 games +/- a few.
33 is fair yeah. I also think Van Vleet could be injured given our injury luck. The last 3 years there is not much the team has had to play for, now Play In is the goal and with better intensity, injuries would happen. With VV and Brooks, the starting unit is not young but the bench is, will make the difference, 82 games and you bet teams are betting on the benches in the trenches. 40 is still short of 0.500.
It isn't going to be straight our bench versus their bench. I can see Cam having issues defensively. Amen, too, but I think his playmaking will offset his inexperience defensively better than Cam. Provided Cam isn't playing too many minutes, especially early in the season, I think there is a decent chance the Rockets play better with 1-2 starters on the bench than the full starting lineup, though. I think Tari sliding in for Brooks will be a positive. Landale should be fine versus other backup centers, but I expect the Rockets will slide Jabari to the 5 often when the opposing team doesn't have a center in that can punish him. I think the athletism of Amen and Tari, spacing provided by Bari at center and either or both Green and FVV, and with the opposing team's rim protector on the bench could be a little overwhelming for a lot of teams. This assumes that Amen is more NBA ready than Green and Jabari were.
Amen really does not have a jump shot, as good as he is going to the rim.......that is a true weakness with the 2nd unit when you have to catch up to teams who are leading the scoreboard. Good 3s are worth more than 2 pters. Remember we were talking about the season start when most of the new teams are not ready yet.
I'll put my final answer in at 29 wins. League is pretty good overall this year and only a few teams are tanking. They'll struggle to figure out the offense and rotations at first. Team should start looking pretty good mid season and pull off some upsets.
I think when the Rockets get to Amen and Cams 3 year is when they will be competing for a championship. That puts Green & Sengun in year 5, Smith and Eason in year 4. . . . Yeah, that sounds about right.
38 - 44 Landale backing up the 5 is a significant upgrade. FVV/Thompson vs KPJ/Nix at the 1 is a very significant upgrade. My hope is that Jalen, Jabari, Sengun and Tari take a step up and just become better basketball players on both ends. Brooks, whether you love him or hate him, is a significant step up defensively. We have been getting bullied by everyone physically. Brooks is strong enough to hold his ground against stronger players and least make it more difficult for them to score. Our bench is kinda loaded. Thompson, KPJ, Whitmore, Tari, Landale, Holiday, Jeff Green, Tate. We can withstand a few injuries and not have it derail the season. Udoka vs Silas isn't even worth discussing. Udoka's staff is on another level as well. This is the first time since we began the tank that I feel comfortable enough to bet the over for total wins. Honestly this is the best that I have felt about a Rockets season since we traded CP3. I'm not looking for miracles. Just solid basketball that makes sense.
32-40 wins Having a new coach, new system, and finding a vibe and identity for 7 ball hungry kids will take time. They'll need to learn spacing, positioning and defensive schemes that the last guy didn't bother doing. If Amen is a stud that we all think he is, the older folks will need to readjuat while being professional an a locker room that once tolerated food fights. I predict a bad first half of the season. Maybe trade deadline makes some guys hustle or stay patient. Or it falls off the wheels until a few folks are dealt to improve weaknesses. Our goal is just to win and not make giving our slot to OKC hurt. We could go on a tear at the end when other teams are tanking or load managing, but i think finding an identity with a deep but unpredictable squad is harder than just building around a pair of alpha future all stars where the gm plugs different players around them. Add that plus the conference being fairly competitive. Rox were padding other teams wins, so you lose that and hope some other team takes the slot by tankng. It's not as bad as that year we missed the playoffs with a winning record, but Denver didn't even break 60 wins last year.
Amen, new coach, new gains from green and alpi, Jabari's sophomore year... The kpj situation. High variance for young squad dealing with learning curves over predictable veteran squads. At least tanking is out of the way and we get more realistic expectations...
We got a very good headcoach in Udoka. The young players have accumulated some needed experience. Coupled the above with new veterans and we should win 40+ games to make the playin.
