Um... so what about my friends who just left for a long backpacking trip in the southern Sierra? RIP, friends. That could be nuts at 11-12,000 ft.
If they are in a National Park, there should be some backcountry rangers that will come and clear the trails. If they are on National Forest ground, maybe not.
So...what about Houston? Are we going to get any rain from this system heading towards Texas? Or will that damn high pressure push it south? European model seems to think we might get a little. American, not so much. Which is more dependable? (please say European)
They both have their flaws, especially with high pressures and troughs. In this instance though, the high pressure is about as stubborn as it gets and it's going to take some big pattern changes to move it away. Any minor shift in any direction can alter a storm track. The European model nailed Harvey several days out, especially the rain amounts in the Houston area (and it was an outlier until the event started). At this point, the models have mostly trended toward N. Mexico and S. Texas. Problem is, there isn't a CoC at this point for the models to use as an initialization point. I don't think anyone will have confidence in where this goes until Sunday. Given this high pressure that has baked us for almost 3 months, it would be a decent bet that this one stays south of here or at maximum, rains on the immediate coast. We will need to see what this is once it is in the GoM and where a CoC develops, if it even does. It's never wise to ignore anything going into the GoM!
If California fails to keep all of their citizens safe during this event, then all of their front line emergency employees, their line managers, and even mid level managers need to take my new course in excellence: >14 Sigma.
Wow. I took one course in weather at UT an age ago and I think most of what little stuck had to do with the different types of clouds, what they looked like, typical altitude and that sort of thing. A lot of what the Weather Service said in your post is a bit convoluted to what can charitably be described as a layman, like myself. Here's a couple of guesses. So they're probably going to have an unusual amount of rain? Some high winds? Maybe some fog in places? Maybe, maybe no? I hope a significant number can swim and end up in my state.
