[Poll] How many games does this team win next season?

I am, not all rating systems are perfect, but once you see how this site breaks down their ratings, you can see that it becomes less biased based on the teams personal and agenda and focuses more on the player's actual tendencies, from a tracking, play-by-play system. As a result, these ratings also claim to be predictive on future performance.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/

 

So I tabulated
VanVleet 6.5 assists before Poeltl.....stat? Raptor for example?

VanVleet 8.6 assists after trade for Poeltl...stat? Raptor for example ?

VanVleet was around 7.2 assists on average because of Poeltl....
you see how one player added at the deadline can change stats?

What if KPj got Poeltl and his assists (and other stats improved)
2 more assists per game? Both KPj/FVV were near each other at the
time (KPj 5.8 / FVV 6.2).....so KPj with two more assists per game
with Poeltl would have jumped to 7.8 assists. Somewhere around
6.9 assists for the season.....Raptor takes that into consideration?

Adjusts to what and when? Teammates can have a definite correlation
to stats....coaches......coaches systems....how can any one stat
factor out those teams "Tanking" (Rockets) with those "Not Tanking" (Toronto).

Stats are just there as a baseline....not meant to be the gospel written in stone stat
that you can just transfer one player from one team and say definitely that the stats
will stay the same.

I use Houshmandzadah as an example often.....he was productive as the 2nd
wide receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals while Chad Johnson was getting all the
attention as the number 1 target.

Seattle Seahawks told themselves let's throw a lot of money at Houshmandzadah
to be the Seahawks number 1. It didn't work out.

When the variables of an experiment are different.....don't expect the
multiple experiment results to be the same or accurate.

Experiment taken outside on a windy day may have different results
than the same experiment performed indoors in a vacuum.

The Raptors won a championship with zones protecting Marc Gasol
and Lowry/VanVleet. Have been doing it every since. Ime will have to
do the same to protect the 5'11" VanVleet or accept the results.
If Ime does do zone defense while VanVleet is in there, don't assume
the rest of the players will get it for have a season. Just because
that Raptor team perfected it.....does not mean the Rockets will
get it over night.

Understand I'm saying the Rockets will win 31 games this season....not every year.

 

30-35 win team with Silas...
i'm figuring a game or two over .500 with Ime.

 

Could it be possible that FVV also began to play better as the year went on? Correlation is not always causation. So if FVVs numbers get even better on the Rockets this season, is it because of Sengun? Ime? If they get worse, is it because of Peoltl not being there? Same could be said of KPJ. If his numbers get better this season is it because we fired Silas? Stopped tanking?

I'm well aware that numbers don't always tell the whole story, thus my original post about this website in connection with just comparing game stats, which obviously is the most inconclusive metric.

Using player trades not working out, like in the NFL, as you mentioned is also poor. Sooooo many other factors, other than the obvious system changes, can cause players to be busts, whether they are drafted or traded for. Nagging injuries, age, and signing big contracts never fare well for athletes, and that's just for starters.

The best metrics will always observe stats over time to draw the best conclusions. So with Raptor, the season before last, FVV was still ranked very high in total efficiency, tied for #13 overall. KPJ on the other hand, tied for #132. Where was Peoltl when this happened?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

 

Sure but I don't believe in coincidences

I have no doubt if you supply multiple 3-pt shooters around facilitators,
also known as SPACING the facilitators can play pitch and catch all game
and and pick up assists all game. KPj included.

Steve Nash was about 8 years into his career getting 5 to 8 assists
per game as a Sun then Maverick....then 1st year back with Suns pops off for about
11.5 assists per game. Different coaches. schemes, systems. teammates.
But I'm sure it's just coincidence that he got better and started playing
better. Sure.

What was the Raptor srat of Nash last year with Mavs? In theory of
some people here....it should have transferred to the same with
the Suns. Again extrinsic factors can form the Raptor stat.

D'Antoni pushes 7 seconds or less will have more turnovers
than say a Thibs offense. But Thibs players will have great
defensive numbers.

One pushes offense and the other pushes defense.
I wouldn't give much validity to those numbers
even if it's league adjusted #'s. To me the stats are just stats.
Good for one player remaining in the same situation
under the same circumstances. If you change the variables
you may be changing the results of said player.

I've seen a coach or a system make or break players.
Again, if Toronto ran a handful of zone defensive
coverages that coincides with the league majority
then the Raptor stat fits that situation. But when Toronto
sides with just two or three other teams....then those numbers
are skewed as outliers. To be taken with a grain of salt. As with
most stats.

Dillon Brooks had a PER of 9. Average is 15. Does he suck?
Well he took responsibility for guarding the other teams best
player. Keep in mind though he had Steven Adams behind him.
And JJJ who won the DPOY award. Not all stats show the whole
story. M.i.T brainiacs just see stats and want that player.....but
Stone needs to ask someone who has played....How? Why?
How in their opinion did the stat look so good or bad?
Seems like they don't have that someone.

 

Checking the newest info with Jeff Green and Bima's cap calculations, I admittedly underestimated how bad Stone is at asset management.

 

Caeser's opens their line at 28.5 wins. about what is expected

 

We win 82 games. Unless you are counting the playoffs then we'll win... 82 games

 

I’m putting stupid money on this

 

haha. I'm planning to stop by there in August. i actually think they will hit 30. I'll be pretty disappointed if they can't even reach 29 wins. that'll be a huge red flag for a number of things

 

I can almost guarantee you the lines will move up. I am personally transfers funds right now and will move the lines myself if I have to.

 

I have not seen opportunity in life like this since Tsla in 2019.

 

Iykyk

 

I just put $10k on it and moved it from 28.5 -115 to 29.5 -130

 

Have a good friend who still works there and made a bundle

 

I like the over 28.5 a LOT, DK sportsbook has it set at 30.5 and im gonna plave an over on that.

Predict about 32-33wins personally.

 

it isn’t 28.5 anymore. I know it has only been out a few hours but I’m guessing I’m not the only degenerate pounding the over today

 

I am a dummy when it comes to betting, but with those odds at -115 if the Rockets win at least 29 games you net about $8700 on that payoff right?