[Poll] How many games does this team win next season?

Not with Wemby on the table.

 

Wow

Rocket River

 

I think the Rockets get to 30 wins simply by trying to win and the organic improvement of Green, Smith, KPJ & Sengun. Adding Udoka, FVV & Brooks I think nets an additional 7 Ws. 37-45. In the convo for the playin into the final weeks of the season. Trajectory pointing upward.

 

27.5 say the rebuild is a failure. (If this is the case, time to fire some people(won’t be Udoka) and start over again)
34.9 say the rebuild is mostly on the right track?
33% are optimistic
4.7% are extremely optimistic

Asked this a day or two ago, if they make the same coaching change and same draft/rookies but no free agents, how many games would you predict them winning?

What the 27.5% are basically saying is the kids won’t improve in any meaningful way(busts) and the free agent signings are mostly worthless.

Me: I’d say between 30-35 wins (so of the poll, voted 33-36)

 

great expectations & dashed hopes. recurring theme ...

 

there was a Wemby last year

and on that note, it's play-offs this year

 

I won’t accept anything less than a play-in spot

anything less than at least 37-38 wins and a play-in berth is a complete and utter failure after several years spent accumulating young talent, spending a ton of money in free agency, and replacing Silas

Green and Sengun are going into year 3…I better see a noticeable jump in level of play

these fools better at least make the play-in…no excuses

 

I think there's a lot of people who think we're homers over here but I was looking through RealGM where someone started a thread about how many games the Rockets can win. Thread is here:

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2306295

They are roughly the same or more optimistic of us and that board has a disproportionately large number of Raptors fans who love to sh*t on FVV.

People who think Green will always be an inefficient chucker, Sengun will never not be an atrocious defender and Jabari Smith is nothing but a role player are mostly predicting in the low 30's wins. 10-20% of them say that if youth development goes well, we could be looking at .500. Roughly the same predictions as we have here and they think worse of our young core. They have no idea about the tanking tactics that depressed last season's win totals and offensive/defensive efficiency - the tactics that have been lifted.

Many of us were predicting 30+ wins last season and frankly without those tactics I think we would have gotten there. For sure Stone forced 10ish extra losses out of us by denying rim protectors, floor generals and shooters on to the team even at vet minimum not even at the backup spots. Here's Ime Udoka saying we should have won more than 22 games last season:

Spoiler: Udoka Interview

I voted 33-36 but after seeing that thread I'm more inclined to say 37-40 wins. The Sixers completed an 18-win turnaround (from 10 wins to 28 wins) when they ended Hinkie's tanking plan. The players that started the most: Covington, Mcconnell, Gerald Henderson (vet), Illyasova (vet), Saric, Okafor, Embiid. Two stupid vets and a bunch of kids. Embiid only played 33 games. I assure you the "realistic" ones on our board would not have predicted an 18-game turnaround for that roster lol. We would have heard the same narratives disguised as real arguments: don't you think the rest of the East will improve? Where's the star scorer? How do you win with so many players that were inefficient last season? Yada yada.

It makes total sense that the more brutally you tank, the more likely you can have an artificially awesome turnaround. I think 18 games is a good model to follow. That would put us at 40 wins.

 

How often is it that teams come in and make like a 15 win jump season to season? Obviously it has happened, but like, what are the odds, you know? I think just getting 10 more would be a nice improvement to make, especially considering one of the players we filled our cap space with is basically a net zero (anything Brooks adds on defense he's taking back away with his chucking).

 

Fixed.

 

Anything less than 30 would probably be dangerous for Stone and Ime. Compared to last season we have the following reasons we will be better:

- we are actually trying to win and will have rotations accordingly. I think we could have easily win 5 more games last season, if we just tried to win, if not more.
- we have replaced Silas by Ime. Silas seemed overwhelmed, didn't have any accountability in the team, no structure etc.
- we have added 2 high priced veterans
- we have added 2 high profiles rookies
- our young core has one more year of experience

So anything under 30 means, that something went majorly wrong. I think anything from 31-41 seems realistic. I would expect us to fight for a playin spot. I am not sure, if we actually get it, but a season similar to Utahs or OKCs last season is what I expect. I expect us to start out slow and pick up steam after the all-star break.

 

36 w - 46 l

 

Would rather have Jeff Green back up Jabari, have Tate as the 3rd small forward, and red shirt Whitmore to the G League for one season...

You have to win at least 40 games to make the play-in, so that's what I'm shooting for.

 

This is the best time to keep dreaming when reality hits you like a sledgehammer during the season, then it is over.

38 wins is probably the best one can hope for.

 

Only problem is this, once looked at through a form of advanced metrics from FiveThirtyEight...

Tied for #82 best player overall:
Kevin Porter Jr. '22-'23
Off. Ef, Def. Ef, Total, WAR
+1.8, -0.5, +1.3, 4.1

Tied for #17 best player overall:
Fred VanVleet '22-'23
Off. Ef, Def. Ef, Total, WAR
+3.8, +1.2, +5.0, 10.0

Also explains why we went so hard after Lopez. His defensive efficiency rating was higher than AD, Embiid, Gobert, and Draymond.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

 

If everyone buys in I can see high thirties maybe even forty wins.

 

Let me note:

Basketball-reference.com
&
NBA.com (tracking-drives).......[ TOV% cited ]

 

Who's responsible if this team wins 30 games or less?

 

Our biggest problems were shooting and defense. Hate KPJ as much as you want, but he was the best shooter in our starting lineup. It's actually possible we shoot even worse from 3 this year as a team.

Regardless, current management will realize about half way through the season they need to make a trade if they actually want to win, so predicting our win total before then isn't important imo.

 

FVV adds nowhere near 6 wins. He's not even top 50.

https://insider.espn.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/sort/VORPe

The good news is, Eason and Sengun add wins (Sengun top 10), and will likely improve when a real coach awards them more minutes.