I think it's a mix of the mental part you mentioned and what I said. You come into the league sky-high on confidence after you demolished college competition. But then once you have a few rough games where you struggle vs physical defenders, you doubt yourself and overthink every shot you take, which can result in less precision and sometimes like we've seen also weird shot form that fluctuates based on confidence.
Also worth mentioning--OTE does have some other legitimate NBA prospects, they're just not draft eligible this year. Izan Almansa and Alex Sarr are projected first rounders for 2024, and both played against the twins on a different OTE team. Matt and Ryan Bewley (more twins, wtf) are potential second rounders, one played on the same team as Amen and Ausar, the other played for one of the opposing teams. For the 2025 draft, there are potential first rounders Naasir Cunningham and Jahki Howard, who played on opposing teams, and Jayden Williams, who played with the Thompson twins. We can only speculate right now because it's so new, but my guesstimate would be that the overall talent level in OTE is lower than a good NCAA conference but clearly better than high school. It's probably around the level of a weak college conference or one of the weaker international pro leagues. My biggest issue with OTE is not the talent level, it's the style of play and lack of seriousness that surrounds the whole thing. I'd bet it will probably take longer for OTE prospects to adjust when they're drafted into the NBA due to the lack of structure. That doesn't mean it's going to cripple their whole careers or anything, but it does mean guys coming out of that league will probably be more raw and take a longer time to get going, perhaps similar to a very young one-and-done (like Jabari), or a prospect straight out of high school (like Shaedon Sharpe).
Maybe in future years we will see more exhibition games where OTE gets matched up with these conferences to add the necessary data to make definitive statements. If OTE has 6 teams - What good does it do if all the talent is focused on only 3 teams?
I haven't watched other OTE games so can't say, but remember Vecenie and Spinella saying that most of the league has a far more grounded style of play, it's just that the Thompson games are so transition-heavy because of their insane athleticism and intentional pushing of pace. So the notion of OTE being a run&gun league with no structure might be a bit misinterpreted due to people just paying attention to games involving Amen&Ausar.
Interesting. I've personally only watched some of the twins' games so that's my only experience with watching OTE. If Amen does end up running the second unit, we could be in for some pretty fun-to-watch high-paced basketball when the bench comes in.
To answer your question, the odds of this being true are ZERO. He's a very good athlete -- but not the best that anyone has ever seen. Not even close. The best athlete I have ever seen in terms of speed + power + quickness is young Lebron James. Michael Jordan, Shawn Kemp, Russell Westbrook, Vince Carter are all in the discussion... Amen Thompson -- come on now.
It's funny people talk about NBA players not needing to be really athletic when even the worst NBA players are 100 times more athletic than normal people. The 500th best basketball player in the world that's in the D League or in Europe is an uber athlete. The only question is whether there's a diminishing returns aspect to athleticism where once you reach a point it doesn't matter anymore. And there's absolutely zero evidence to really suggest that.
Yet with proper coaching to develop a reasonably consistent shot, he could end up being the steal of the draft at #4.
If we are not building the team around Amen, I am not too worried about his jumper (meaning we wont need him to carry us scoring wise). I think what he brings is the ability to create mismatches and get our scorers good looks with his vision and passing. Kid is really fast out there and looks for others. Im sure the organization is aware of his shooting and will have a development plan for him as soon as he comes onboard (Ben Sullivan will be his new best friend). They may also bring in a vet PG to give him time to learn the position at the NBA level. I guess we will see tonight. Summer league will be interesting again this year.
In my view, he's very, very close to actually being a 6'7" Russell Westbrook in terms of his overall functional athleticism. He doesn't have the "elite strength" component of his game that somebody like LeBron does. He's not skinny like LaMelo but he's not a big time power athlete either.
To me he looks more similar to Ja Morant - without the jump shot but with better rebounding. He is really quick and can jump like a cartoon character...
I agree, but I think he has better vision and passing than Ja, but he wont be the scorer Ja is. IMO that is ok for our team needs at this point. We have scoring, we need a connector on the floor and I hope he can be that type of player and play solid defense at the PG position.
In my head, it makes the #4 pick go down easier if I imagine this is true and we are getting a Dominique Wilkins, Shawn Kemp, or Larry Johnson type player with court vision (LeBron). I think people are sleeping on Paolo, he's 250lbs with a 41" vertical. Thats either Rookie Blake Griffin plus 5.5" vert or Rookie Shawn Kemp plus 20 lbs. Size, strength, speed, and agility he is like right in the middle of Rookie Grant Hill and Rookie Shaq. I mainly mentioned him because at least Tilman has seen him up close and personal and any metrics used to measure Amen should have also been used on Paolo. So, if Amen is really measuring off the charts, I would be impressed. Too bad it's probably an exaggeration.
Paolo has a reported 40” vert, it doesn’t show. He’s not explosive in any capacity. He’s a very good athlete for his size but not an elite one
There can't be too many athletes in any sport have a 44 inch vertical and what looks like 4.2 speed in the forty. Doesn't mean it will translate into super stardom but he is a top 1%er by that metric alone.
