You're trying to shut down discussion by insulting people and calling them player only fans instead of actually engaging with the topic. I have no problem whatsoever with anyone disagreeing with me and having an honest conversation. Just to be clear, my ideal outcome would be for Scoot Henderson to somehow fall to us or for the Rockets to move up to get him (even if it requires a significant overpay). I'm also fine with drafting Brandon Miller if he drops to #4. I'm not by any means all-in on Amen Thompson. I just think he's a good prospect and is likely the best player available when the Rockets pick. That's not being a player only fan, that's just... discussing the draft. Which is what we're all pretty much doing right now.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kiddja01.html I don't think Amen Thompson will ever be a great movement shooter. But if he can evolve into a Jason Kidd level 3 point set shooter, that can be a championship caliber point guard. Jason Kidd didn't shoot above 70% from the free thrown line until his age 24 season (to be fair, Jason Kidd had other worldly feel for the game minus the top 1% athleticism that Amen has). I have Scoot Henderson in a higher tier, but there are intriguing elements to Amen's game. It might the the eternal pre-draft hopium speaking, but having a versatile 6'7", freakish athlete with a high feel creates several pathways to champtionship team buidling.
I have to disagree here and keep in mind what I'm making an assessment of is a very high bar - whether he can be a clearly max-worthy player in his first 4 years. You have to ask yourself if Giannis or Zion or Lebron would be good at carrying an offense if they didn't have the power advantage on 80% of nights to bully their way to the basket. If you can't shoot and you have the ball in your hands, the #1 problem that no one has been able to solve is what do you do when the defense sags off you putting more pressure on the best scorer on the team? Here are the known possibilities: 1) If you're a big, you can get involved in a PnR and force the defense to guard you in motion. 2) The other possibility is you have some kind of insane physical advantage over everyone else. Generally a combination of elite athleticism and either strength (Zion) or quickness (Morant). Amen is athletic, but is he going to be a top 10 athlete in the NBA? Is he the strongest? The fastest? He has a good mix for sure, but not the kind of stand-out qualities that you would need to overcome a serious shooting problem. 3) There's ONE more possibility which actually Udoka is known for using: getting that playmaker involved in setting screens very much like you would a big man. We did this a little bit with Westbrook screening for Harden and it worked relatively well. The problem here is you're now committed to having a 5 who can shoot just to make it work for Thompson. You can never get away with two starters who can't shoot, you just couldn't generate enough points in an NBA Finals calibre game (which is what happened to Udoka vs the Warriors with his 2-big lineup). Why put that kind of condition on a team from the start of its journey? It's not easy finding players who can hit 3's AND protect the paint. Something to consider. I think people are WAY underrating the risk with Amen. I totally understand that the potential return is amazing, but you would have to be convinced this guy has generational star potential to take this level of risk. You also have to make yourself ok with the possibility that he pans out as a franchise player or doesn't. It's a tough one because he's clearly a special passer. Unfortunately in this NBA we don't have the luxury like Jason Kidd of giving someone 10+ years to become a consistently good 3pt shooter. Such a tough choice with Thompson. Udoka has been stocking up on Engelland disciples so if we draft him this would be a great place for him to fix that shot asap.
Regarding the "is he going to be a top 10 athlete in the NBA", @Mathloom , I would argue yes, he easily will. In my view, he will be top 3. It's obviously subjective though. In any case, I wouldn't draft for fit or roster construction. That's how teams pass up on superstar future HoFers and end up with roleplayers. You figure that stuff out later IMO.
I'll take your word for it because I honestly don't know, I've just watched those amateur scouting videos. He seems to be a great athlete, but are you keeping in mind we have some superhero athletes in this NBA? Ja Morant, Zion Williamson, Giannis-level athletes. I'm talking the kind of athlete it takes to punish the defender even when they sag off you. We literally have to come up for an answer to: it's the playoffs and from the first play of the first game till the end of the playoffs, they are going to sag off Amen and use the easy coverage to make problems for Sengun/Green. What do we do? If someone else runs the offense, Amen becomes a negative if he's not setting a screen. They will never stop putting him in that situation, so does he set screens on every possession? I would never draft for fit of course, but if you are drafting best player available and that player puts essentially a handicap on another roster spot (mandatory 3pt shooting C who can protect the rim) then you have to consider if that player is a good fit for being a franchise player. The only type of player worth doing that for is a franchise player. So then we circle back to: I don't know a PG who can't shoot who has had championship success as a franchise player. It all comes back down to a very single thing: do you believe he can learn to shoot or not? If you believe he can learn to shoot, I totally agree he'd be a great pick.
I think he is a good enough athlete to punish teams that sag off of him, yes. He's regularly talked about as being a top 1% guy in that category. I agree though that shooting is an important swing skill for him. He doesn't necessarily need to be good, but he needs to be at least De'Aaron Fox level to become a star player. I think he's a fairly extreme case of the reward being so immense that you're willing to take on a certain level of risk. There are definitely safer picks that will be taken later than him, and would I be shocked to see him end up as a bench roleplayer? No, not at all. But if Scoot is off the board, I don't think there's anyone else in this class that I would confidently say I can see contending for MVP awards if they reach their 10% high-end outcome. You can pick up a guy like Walker or Hendricks and feel fairly confident he'll be a defensive stopper who can play a key role on a contender in his prime, but you're not going to be a contender in the first place without a franchise player to build around. I suppose if it were ATW he'd say we already have that guy and his name is Sengun
I might be in the minority, but I actually do not care about Amens jumpshots, that **** can be torn down rebuilt slowly improve whatever. I am worried this -half court shot generation. Its okay if you can't shoot, but do you have other tools in the bag to get the ball in the basket. You cant be a efficient scorer in the NBA if all you do is try to do acrobatics layups (see KPJ and Greens numbers) -how good is his court vision in the half court, not just fancy passes, but general decision making and reading the defense. -free throw shooting, imo it's a bit sketchy he's at sub 70 percent There's literally so many ways to get around not shooting that much. Did you know Jimmy Butler shot 20 percent from 3 last season
I'm even more optimistic than that, I believe out of Sengun/Green/Jabari there are 2 budding max-worthy players and 1 worth 80% of the max. I don't buy the excuse we don't have what it takes. We just stalled their development so brutally that there's some catching up to do now, but I'm a huge believer that their past 2 seasons worth of stats are artificially deflated. I don't feel so desperate and impatient with this core. Believe me even with adding nothing but Udoka's coaching and a few high character vets, we are going to see dramatic changes in their shooting efficiency and defense. It was a historically unique situation, we will realize it later. I would argue we had one of the 3 most brutal tank jobs in the history of the NBA and that must show up somewhere. Where it showed up is unusually low levels of motivation, accountability and structure. All of these things resulted in immature offensive and defensive execution, atrocious spacing and uncertainty about roles. You have to cut these kids some slack and we were all saying it too how this shameless level of tanking will affect that culture. All of those things are history now. I think we're going to be surprised at what it looks like when 8 players under 22 simultaneously start understanding how to win. It's going to be a very exciting season, especially the second half.
My view of our core three is that all three of them have a good chance (better than 50%?) at making all-star games at their peaks, so I agree, max-worthy, but none of them have high odds of becoming top 10 players in the league, and historically you almost always need a top 10 player to win a title. Even if each of them has, say, a 1 in 4 chance of reaching that high-end star level, that's only a 58% chance that one of the three gets there. I view this as our last opportunity to increase those odds.
Athleticism is hardly subjective. You know that Giannis is a freak, Westbrook, etc. There are things you look at, vertical, speed drills, dribbling with the ball, quickness, bench press etc all measure how big, strong, and fast that person is. If Amen grades to be a top 10 athlete in the NBA you take this dude, yes even though he has question marks shooting the ball and level of competition wise.
Fair enough. I'm just more optimistic about their ceiling, when I say max-worthy that's sort of the floor of the ceiling to me if that makes sense. I do believe at least one of them will be a top 10 player. My money is on Green becoming an efficient, clutch 30+ ppg scorer with passable defense. Can see a path for Sengun and Jabari too but it involves difficult improvements to one whole side of the court for each of them, so I'm slightly less optimistic about them.
Better passer than Cade and more athletic. Some of these are nuts. His explosion to the rim with him and Jalen as dual cutters off of Sengun post play....whoo boy.
Great first step, good vision, good passer, good size, but I just can't get around his shooting. He feels like a reach at 4.
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/in...ospects-one-day-better-victor-scoot-henderson Why Amen might be better than the Big Three Amen Thompson has a higher ceiling than any prospect in this class not named Wembanyama. Combine Jaylen Brown's physical tools, Jaden Ivey's change of gear explosiveness, Andre Iguodala's court vision/passing and OG Anunoby's defensive versatility, and you have a (perhaps hyperbolic) picture of what makes Thompson the most fascinating prospect in this class. Thompson is 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot wingspan and a perfectly proportioned 214-pound frame that has packed on 15 pounds in the past 18 months and still could easily add 10-15 more in due time. He's tested anywhere from a 42 to 45-inch vertical leap in the past, helping him average more dunks per game than any player in the draft. While he's not a polished ball handler or decision-maker yet in half-court settings, his ability to accelerate from zero to 100 from a standstill is unparalleled. He combines that with superb body control, footwork, dexterity and creativity using long-stride Eurosteps and finishing around the basket with either hand, making him unstoppable once he gets downhill. When his first move is cut off, he can stop and start, switch hands, use sharp crossovers and accelerate again to overpower defenders in the lane and draw fouls. He finished 65% of his 2-point attempts this season, more than 11% better than his brother, Ausar, in no small part due to his extraordinary transition scoring ability, where he converted an astounding 87% of his 2-point attempts this season, per Synergy Sports Tech (Ausar hit 73%) while drawing quite a few free throws with his punishing frame. Billed as more of the point guard of the twins, Amen's unselfishness, live-dribble passing and ability to utilize both sides of the floor from his superior vantage points seeing over the top of defenses separate him from other physical marvels in his mold we've seen in the past. Right now that manifests itself more in highlight reel fashion -- with some absolutely jaw-dropping flashes of raw talent -- than with great consistency, as his decision-making is a major work in progress. He doesn't have a consistent means of beating defenders in the half court, struggling when forced to his weaker left hand, settling for too many midrange pull-ups and being too turnover-prone due to his often-adventurous style of play. Despite his obvious talent as a passer, it's hard to call him a great game manager at this stage in half-court situations as a lead guard, especially operating out of pick-and-roll where he has significant room to grow. Nevertheless, he vividly shows you his talent with the way he throws skip passes to open shooters in the opposite corner, makes high-level touch passes, throws two-handed outlets the length of the floor and drives and dishes in simple fashion after moving the defense. Amen has All-NBA type upside defensive as well. He's not consistent in this area either, but shows extraordinary ability picking up opponents at half court and sticking to them like glue, closing out ferociously on the perimeter, blocking jumpers, flying into passing lanes, going out of his area for rebounds and generally wreaking havoc with his speed, quickness getting off his feet, instincts and length. His somewhat casual nature works against him at times, especially off the ball where he has too many sleepy moments, but the way he can turn his hips, recover and get back into plays suggests incredible potential if he can dial up the intensity more consistently. Why Amen might fail While he's made progress with his jumper this season (making nearly twice as many 3s in OTE-play, while upping his free throw percentage from 51% to 67%), this is still far from a strength of his at the moment. He still looks reluctant to take open 3-pointers and his mechanics really waver from game to game, even if he's had some encouraging moments, which could make it difficult for him to play off the ball. Although his ceiling is higher than almost any player in this class, his floor is much lower than some of his peers at the top of the draft. He's a tricky basketball fit who needs a forward-thinking front office and coaching staff to fully unlock. You can certainly envision a world where his inconsistent pick-and-roll prowess, decision-making, perimeter shooting and occasional lapses defensively are frowned upon by a coaching staff hyper-focused on winning as many games as possible in the short-term. If not given the freedom to make mistakes and explore the depths of his talent as a big point guard, there's a lot of downside if he ends up in the wrong situation, especially if he loses confidence or doesn't improve his jumper sufficiently. Who's the best early first-round fit for Amen? The way the draft board lined up on lottery night didn't do Amen many favors. The Houston Rockets (if the James Harden rumors are to be believed), Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic or Indiana Pacers aren't situations where you could envision the keys to a franchise being turned over to him, which I believe is the best way for him to reach his full potential as a prospect. Washington at No. 8 looks like a great situation potentially -- if its new front office can stomach a full-blown rebuild (a question mark pending the long-term status of Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma). If not, Utah at No. 9, with a gaping hole in the backcourt and a sufficiently long timeline from ownership to take a home run swing on a talent of this nature, also stands out. Even though Amen is the fourth-best prospect in this class in my estimation, taking a little tumble on draft night might be the best outcome for his long-term outlook. -- Jonathan Givony
