I dont think they're looking for guys with multiple yrs of control. But guys like Dirden/Whitley/Lee or Melton if packaged might be able to get you a guy like Cease.
I don't see how the White Sox trade Giolito for Chas or Meyers (and someone earlier said the Stros would need to pitch in another player?!?)...that's just silly, but yall keep fantacasting.
I agree with most of this, but Chas absolutely has to start every single game against lefties. His splits are so outrageous he should start over damn near anyone if we are facing a lefty starter.
Losing Garcia hurts because he has the higher upside over Urquidy, but Urquidy is a solid starter. Hopefully he comes back in July at full strength and McCullers around the same time. That would put us 5 deep with Brown. Optimistically Brown should be the game 3 starter if he can start building some consistency start to start, and he has a higher upside than just about anyone on the staff. Still a long way to go before worrying about all this.
Urquidy is a weird case/ he’s never had an era over 4 and he’s never (other than briefly for 1st year) had a fip under 4. He’s either really lucky or there’s something about him that makes his pitch ability better than the FIP would say. I don’t like his stuff all that much and I suspect his contact nature is such that he really e benefits from playing with them Astros defense behind him. I think he’s a great 5th starter that you’d like to avoid in the playoffs.
History has shown that the playoffs require "stuff" over "pitchability" and the ability to throw strikes. The Astros have accepted this model, sitting pitchers who walk hitters and give up HR in favor of those who strike them out WHILE ALSO limiting baserunners and hard contact. Urquidy is a very valuable pitcher over the course of a 162 game season. He eats innings while generally keeping the team in games. That said, he has below average strikeout, HR, and hard hit rates. He simply is not a good fit for a playoff staff which is why he pitched 1 game and 3 innings, in a game the Astros were losing 7-0 after 5 innings, in the entire playoffs last year. Framber, Javier, and Brown, are starters who meet the profile for a playoff rotation. McCullers walks too many to be ideal but has the other attributes. Nobody knows how Brown will react to pitching a career high in innings and its very hard to count on McCullers' health. If this team wants to win a World Series, adding a high calibur starter is essential, and there simply aren't many out there.
He's just really solid and mentally tough without having great stuff. That is why his ERA is even better in the world series.
Urquidy is ~95th percentile in vertical rise on his 4 seam fastball (edit this is versus average and takes into account velocity) and locates it at the top of the zone. This leads to pop ups and easy flies, but also homers. When one looks at the Top 10 BABIP leaders in pitching since Urquidy came up, all the ERAs are much less than the FIPs (as expected), and about 80% of them feature a 4 seam fastball with a lot of rise. I'd put Urquidy's ability to have ERAs less than FIPs more on the Astros development and pitch design team than the defense.
Guess I missed it with the mediocre start to the season but not only are the stros 1 game back in the division but they’re currently in a wild card position. And since they’re only one game back of the rangers, they’re one game out of a first round bye too. All things considered… that’s nuts to me
This has been a very good winning streak. This is probably the latest in a season the Astros have outperformed their BaseRuns under Dusty.
I hope Jake Meyers is in the starting lineup today. I don't think he's been talked about enough. He's second on the team in fWAR and bWAR. He's one of the best 5 or 6 defensive center fielders in the game. He should absolutely be starting every day in center field, the same way Tucker gets the auto-start every day in right. Chas can play LF and DH. He's also probably the center fielder of the future for this team, Drew Gilbert or not. We could run out this lineup next year (or hell, even this year): 1. Altuve 2B 2. Gilbert LF 3. Alvarez DH 4. Bregman 3B 5. Tucker RF 6. Diaz C 7. Meyers CF 8. Abreu 1B 9. Pena SS Bench: McCormick, Dubon, Lee, Loperfido That's a 100 win lineup to me.
Every single player in that everyday lineup (except maybe Abreu) is fully capable of posting a 3+ fwar season. And each player on that bench is fully capable of being a viable everyday player. I like Loperfido as a lefthanded option who can play LF and 1B, meaning he can replace Abreu nicely if Abreu doesn’t ever get on track, and he can otherwise be a platoon mate or fill in for Meyers if he doesn’t keep hitting. Great roster there, and plenty affordable.
Great lineup. Little concerned with our starting pitching come playoff time. Hopefully Brown won’t falter with more innings he is used to and McCullers is actually available. I’m not giving up Gilbert for SP, but our incredible glut of OF’s has to be used near the deadline for another SP, doesn’t it?
I don’t think Houston needs a ToR SP. The Astros still project have 6 decent SP by Aug 1, and that doesn’t include France, whose early body of work paints him as a solid BoR option. If they add a SP it just needs to be a veteran guy who is healthy and good enough to give the team a chance each time out. It can be a rental. So I wouldn’t at all expect them to give up major prospects for pitching. A guy like Giolito should be able to be had without giving up Gilbert, Barber, Loperfido, or Clifford; otherwise he’s not worth it. I think guys like Dirden, Leon, Julks, and maybe Melton will be the tier of OF prospects Houston is willing to part with this season.
To me it really depends on McCullers whether we should make a move for a TOR starter. If he is not available come playoff time, Brown becomes essential and we don’t know if he is going to be gassed by then. If Gilbert makes his debut and is stroking in the big leagues then I would put McCormick and Barber (because of injury concerns) in the second group. Depending on McCullers to be there come playoff time is quite a gamble. Of course, maybe there is no TOR starter attainable for those type of assets.
So Maldy(37), Salazar(28), and Julks(28) out and Lee(25), Loperfido(25), and Gilbert(23) in. It's reasonable and looks to be an exciting roster. I expect the Astros to bring in a veteran backup catcher and Diaz and Lee to compete for the catching position but I prefer this. I expect Hensley to make the team ahead of Loporfido out of spring training but another start like this year and Joey could replace him after super 2 cutoff. I expect either McCormick or Meyers are traded either at this year's deadline ( only if Brantley or another OF is brought in) or in the offseason. They are simply too similar in skills. One playing everyday would do about the same as both playing part time. But I like the youth movement. Then Altuve and Bregman will be in their walk years. Are they resigned? Or replaced?
