Sefko has Rox 5, Dallas in Lotto

In terms of Houston, his perdiction looks pretty reasonable at #5. I love the duo of TMac & Yao, but they need a season or two together and adding pieces before we can just pencil them in at one of the top four spots.

 

I completely disagree. I think Houston is the number two seed. Divac is no longer the same player and he was crucial to the Kings ball movement. Webber is not the same after his injury. Dallas is decimated without Nash. Minnesota is going to be weaker because every year Cassel and Spree are getting older and creakier. The Lakers are out of the top four. Here is my call.

SA
Houston
Sac
Den
Mem
Minn
LA
Dal
Ut

I bet if you ask any Wester Conference player the team they are going to really dread going up against it will be the team with the huge center and unstoppable scorer no matter who fills the gaps around them.

Only SA has remained as strong or improved from last year in the top four.

 

I agree with you LeGrouper...

I guess I'm having trouble putting them that high when we haven't seen how this team gels and plays together yet. I'm with you about Sac though. I've seen people in the media list them in the top three and I don't understand why. They were old last year and have only gotten older. But, as for the Rockets, I would go up to #3. I think SA & Minny will still have better records. Just my opinion.

 

The Mavs wanting Vince is hilarious, it just shows how Cuban still hasn't figured it out yet. You Need An Inside Presence!!!! Sure they wanted Shaq, but who didn't?

Dallas fans are in for a rude awakening. They let a top 3 PG walk, a 6th man of the year go for a draft pick and 2 old swingmen. They have no C, no true PG, and a bunch of bad contracts. I say if Dallas wants Vince, let them have him, he won't help them.

Everyone was saying how Cuban was the best owner in the league, but it seems more and more apparent that he just wants the big-name offensive player. Don't worry about defense or an inside game.

 

Minnesota as the 5th seed?

 

I just don't think Minnesota will be near as good this year. Cassell is all but finished, Spree has neither the endurance or speed that made him a great player. Last year it was the big three but next it will go back to being the big one and we know where that puts the wolves. Around five or six.

Houston will be much improved, especially by another year of experience from Yao. Also whoever replaces steve is going to be better at getting the ball inside to Yao. And then there is the MVP ability of TMac on board. I don't see how you can discount the Rockets at two.

 

i think utah is a lock for the playoffs with their upgrades and sloan as coach he won't let them slack off. it looks like phoenix and dallas could battle for that last playoff spot but neither of them look all that great.

for all this talk of a pg and a back-up center the most important part of the rockets season will be how much yao has improved. if he plays consistently at a high level, any seed is possible for the rockets.

 

The Rockets are not a #2 seed in the West. If you think so, you are setting yourself up for disappointment. Not to mention that if SA is the #1 seed, the Rox can get no higher the #3 becasue the winner of the other division gets the #2 seed regardless of records.

 

There's 3 divisions now. Not sure if there's still doing the division winners get the highest seeds deal.

Edit. Okay looks like they are still giving division winners the top three seeds:

http://www.nba.com/rockets/news/Rockets_To_Play_In_Southwest_D-90556-34.html

But here's the kicker. The homecourt advantage is based solely on best records regardless of the seeding, even in the first round.

 

Agreed, unless we somehow get significantly better talent on the roster in the rest of our offseason, I'd be very surprised if we made the #5 seed. If we just settle for budget-minded parts the rest of the offseason, I could even see us possibly missing the playoffs. This is not to complain about the TMac trade, but we will have to endure some short-term pain this year, especially if we are unable to get some more good talent this summer. Even long-term, it may be a few years before we find good cheap role players, since we are a luxury tax-averse team.

I am most concerned with the Rockets' lack of quickness as the team is presently constituted. The West will be full of star athletes. Cato and Mobley were quick defenders and will be missed. Rebounding will also be an issue, as Francis and Cato were very good rebounders.

But I agree with the premise that Dallas could end up dropping in the lotto, just like us. Same problem there, too little chemistry, not enough defense.

Spots 6-10 are a crapshoot and will be bunched together very close, but here's my guess:

SA and Min will be the class of the league.

SA
Min

Then:
Sac (BJax back)
Den (w/ KMart they will run their opposition to death in the mountain air and win a ton of home games)
Mem (overachieved last year)
LAL (Kobe + Odom + Bevetta)
Hou
Dal
Utah
Pho

Nash, Amare, Marion - two all-stars, one ROY, all in their prime. That's going to be the best 10th place team ever!

 

I think Denver, Utah and of course the Rockets could be much better this year.
Denver - Carmelo's second year coupled with the addition of Kenyon Martin is going to be add a lot of the Nuggets.

Jazz - were pretty good last year and had over 40 wins, now they add Boozer, Okur and a healthy Harpring.

Rockets - we add one of the top players in the league giving us arguably the best one-two punch in the league. Although right now we are not deeped compared to teams like a lot of the teams in the West. Hopefully we can add a nice player or two.

 

I think he's giving Denver a little too much respect. They'll be good, but not #4.

Also, I predict that he's about right with Utah. They're considerably more talented than last year, but I bet they do no better. I think it'll be a redux of the rebuilt Orlando Magic. They won 41 games with a bunch of nobodies and then picked up Grant Hill and McGrady and didn't really perform better despite adding considerable 'talent.' Utah isn't adding the same kind of talent, and they might not get the same injury troubles, and they didn't have to trade away any Ben Wallaces, but I'm still predicting a letdown.

 

McGrady is actually a slightly better rebounder than Francis. Howard's career average (7.4) is slightly higher than Cato's best season (7.0). Sure, Howard plays about 10 minutes per game more, but there is a reason Cato hasn't ever played more than 25 mpg. Also keep in mind that for a lot of Howard's career he has been his team's best rebounder. Opposing teams, then, only really had to worry about boxing him out. Is it just a coincidence that he averaged 8+ the years he played with another rebounder in Webber? I guess we will find out. I think our rebounding will be fine.

Also, Cato is a fairly slow man defender, which is why more mobile 4's killed him. Howard isn't fast, but he is a better option against those types of 4's. He was THE anchor of Dallas's playoff defense when he was on their team (sad as that may be), going up against the same 4's he will go up against with the Rockets. So he can do a decent enough job.

 

Actually it's worse. There are three divisions now. Finish behind the Spurs, and the Rocket's best case scenario is the #4 seed.

Considering that the Nugs, Wolves, and Jazz are likely going to be reg season beasts, I wouldn't expect better than #5, personally.

1 Spurs, Midwest champs (58-24)
2 Nuggets, Northwest champs (57-25)
3 Kings, Pacific champs (50-32)
-----------------------------
4 Wolves
5 Rockets
6 Jazz
7 Mavs
8 Trailblazers*
------------------------------
*fight between Blazers, Lakers, Griz, Suns

2004-05 regular season will be a dog fight.

Evan

 

Kobe + Odom + Bevetta = hilarious!!!!!

i think Denver could be a 3 seed this year.

 

If you think a lack of chemistry is the reason the Rockets would be so far down on the list, why do you put Denver so incredibly high up there? K-Mart's supposed to just magically fit in Denver while T-Mac's supposed to take a year or three to discover his role with the team?