Agreed. If we are going to spend money just to spend money, I'd prefer we hammer out extensions for our own guys (Framber, Javier, Tucker).
Honest question…Who did/do you want them to sign? I was hoping for another addition or two, but i’m not signing these guys at the deals they are getting. They aren’t worth it imo. Was Crane cheap or smart at getting the Abreu deal done quickly? To me, it was very smart. If Conforto is healthy and all that is holding a deal up is a player option at 20m a year I’d consider it. I don’t think it’s necessary at this point now though. I feel like there will be trades to made somewhere from now up until the trade deadline so I’m ok being patient. I hope Crane changes direction and gives the Tuckers of the world more years and a higher offer than what is to be believed. Still doubt it would be enough. These deals that teams are handing out are moronic and it’s changed the market in a big way. I’ll say this again, it’s not directed at you, and I mean it respectfully. If the Astros keep winning and their way keeps working, I really don’t care how much Crane spends or pockets. We just came off of winning a freaking World Series win and everyone is acting like this hasn’t been one of the top 2 or 3 best run organizations. Everyone wants the Astros to sign all these guys just to make them feel all warm and fuzzy about the off-season. I’m trusting this organization until I’m given reasons not to.
We definitely need one more OF/DH. Fine with Conforto/Brantley for that if they can’t work out a trade to upgrade CF. Takes 2 to tango on the pre-FA extensions.
And there's the deal. Crane was willing to spend mor-e, not mor-onic. People haven't figured out he's still creating a dynasty, not a window.
Extend Dubon and/or Maton and I will riot. If you don’t add a single other player but extend Valdez, Javier, Urquidy and then Bregman or Altuve I’m good with that. Fans need to stop talking about Tucker- it isn’t happening. Altuve makes 27M and Bregman makes 30M- any extension for them won’t cost money, merely years at those current rates of pay/ in fact you can probably lower their comp with the right number of years. 40M should be able to buy you 2 year extensions for each of the 3 pitchers. The math looks like this: Framber- 5/85 becomes 17M per year- he was going to make 8M this year so that’s now up by 9M. His last 3 arb will be 8/12/20 more or less- so that extension is 2/45 in FA (he’d be a FA at 32 currently) Javier- 5/75- that’s 15M a year. He was going to make about 3M this year so that is +12. His 3 arbs will be something like 3/7/12 so that’s 22M. His extension this becomes 2/53 or something like that. He will be 28 currently when he becomes a FA. Generational wealth guaranteed. He gets a chance to hit FA off this extension at 30. Good deal for both sides. Urquidy- 5/40. He is slated to make 3/5/8 or something like that. So that extension would be 2/24. That raises this years salary 5M. He currently would be a FA at be 30. This would push him back to 32. Garcia- 5/30. He’s currently making 1M this year. That would raise his money to 6M costing you 5. He would likely go next 4 years 1/3/5/10. That’s a 1 year for 11M extension. Why he’d take it? He’s made less than 2M on his major league career. Pitchers can have an injury that ends their career at any time. This guarantees he is set for life and only costs him 1 year. I’d do it in his shoes. So- those 4 extensions would cost the Astros 31M this year and leave them 7 or 8M to spend at the deadline. This would lock up their 6 man rotation for the next 5 years at a cost of roughly 68M per season for the next 5 years which is the Yordan, Chas and Peña window. That guarantees you absolute competitiveness through 2028 without ever going into the luxury tax. If you have an above average to great starting rotation (6 deep) locked up for 70M that gives you 40 or so to spend to build a really good bullpen (3 FA at 30M plus 4 guys you've developed in their first 6 years to split the other 10M between peanuts and arbitration) Then- you have 120 to spend on your lineup. let’s say it’s: Yordan-20, Bregman- 30, Peña- 12, Chas or Meyers- 12, Y Diaz 8. That’s 5 spots for 82M. That means the other 4 spots you need to develop 2 guys that play essentially for free and split the other 40M between two upper middle class FA or develop 3 and pay one guy as a star. that’s a pathway to win somewhere between 90 and 110 games the next 5 years. If we did that for an off-season I’d be very happy. if we sign Conforto and bring in a reasonable platoon partner for Maldy I will be happy. If we run it back with Brantley with questions, Lee at catcher and no other major moves and claim (“no wait/ this time we will get really good players at the deadline” I will be pretty disappointed at the team deciding to get worse after the WS while printing money.
I repped this post but have no comment to add other than this/ this is a truly truly excellent post. Well written and dead bang on accurate.
Issue is Daddy said he would spend even into the tax and has been outbid now on JV, Contreras, Rodon, and Benintendi (based on Nooks posts of who they’ve made offers to). Abreu reportedly took less to be here over other teams which is great but could have lost him too after being outbid on Rizzo. As others have posted we’ve lost Keuchel, Springer, Cole, Correa, and JV and Tucker is next. After winning last year with a MASSIVE hole at DH it would be a huge disappointment not to add another impact bat or two. Especially given when Crane said he would do and his frustration with Click not spending.
Brantley will not be a known commodity until March. I would prefer a split contract to lock him up, but I can see where others would be satisfied with just waiting. To me, he gives up a DH/LF option with experience in case Meyers/McCormick/Diaz all struggle in a DH role. I expect a decline from his pre-injury performance we saw last season and would prefer something like $8M with $2M incentives for PAs for 200, 300, 400, 500, and 600.
Who is your surprise starter by the end of 2023? Brown is my favorite as a fixture in the Starting Rotation.
We essentially payed Brantley 4/64 starting in his age 32 season. I don't know why 5/75 for a 28 yo Benintendi is considered too much and too long or whatever the reasoning was for not getting that deal done.
Crane had close to tax dollars ear-marked for Verlander. He probably had some other inklings to get close to there if other players like Contreras were willing to sign shorter term deals. That's it. He hasn't been wrong saying they'll go over the tax for the right players or the right situation. All these other signings aren't that.
Maybe he doesn't want to replicate moves that may not have paid off as much as they should have. Its clear that he's much more willing to spend on short term deals vs. longer term ones. He'd rather pay Benintendi over a 2 year deal... and then consider re-signing him for another 2 years... at about the same rate that he's getting now, vs. being locked into him for the duration.
I think if you could guarantee that Benitendi would be an All Star for 2 years (like Brantley) and provide 10.2 WAR across 4 years (really 3 and change, like Brantley), then I think it would make sense. Brantley, when we signed him, was a far superior player to Benidenti in most respects. Literally a top 5 pure hitter in the game when healthy. Obviously he’s unlikely to be that good at his age, but he’s still a professional hitter who will be productive health permitting, and doesn’t require 4-5 years at this point.
Because if Brantley didn't work out, the Astros weren't stuck with him for all 4 of those years, let alone 5. Good or bad, the Astros value flexibility over all else. Reddick would be a good comparison - they signed him for 4 years and after 2 or 3, they were trying (unsuccessfully) to move him. Astros don't know their needs in 3 years and apparently want flexibility to use that money on needs then or in extending players or whatever else. Also, Brantley was a much better player.
I’d prefer to have a 3 some with Katie Holmes and Alison Brie, but when it became apparent that wasn’t in store I proposed to my wife as the realistic option on the table. Crane is being a miserly tightwad.
Cool. Then pay the surcharge extra 25% tax players demand to go on a shorter deal. Wanting to pay AAV a guy can get for 2 years when he can get it for 4 years isn’t paying market rates, isn’t a good faith offer and is bullshit destined to not get a deal done while pretending to get a deal done. if you want Benitendi for 2 yeas and he can get 5/75 then the proper offer if you mean business is 2/40 or 2/42, not 2/30. 2/30 is bullshit. Just like Correas offer if 5/160 was horseshit to placate the hoopleheads without being serious.
