I see both sides of it, but to play devil's advocate.... are you more scared of playing against Cole and Verlander OR are the Yankees more scared of facing this line up....... Altuve Pena Alvarez Abreu Bregman Tucker Contreras Brantley McCormick I'm not saying that is what the Astros WOULD do, but they could sign Abreu, Contreras and Brantley if they missed out on Verlander..... I am sure someone will disagree, and there are some really good line ups out there like the Dodgers..... but if I were a pitcher, if I saw that line up I would be concerned.... that is a lot of power, without a lot of strikeouts and a lot of high end talent. What kind of numbers will 3-7 do in that line up? Everyone in the line up is protected.
I hear this..... and it is the general wisdom now.... just get to the playoffs and then it is a coin flip. However, I do think there is more than luck to it. There is a reason the Astros have consistently gotten as far as they have, and the WS loss to the Nats could have easily been a win.... had Verlander been healthy last year, the Astros probably beat the Braves. The Astros just seem to have something special..... the Giants had it awhile ago and the Yankees before them. The Astros pitching was so incredibly consistent that it really eliminated some of the luck portion of the equation..... couple that with the pitching depth and there were fewer outlier situations. For the Philles to win they needed lots of homers and Wheeler and Nola to pitch great.... and that is a lot to ask.
If the Yankees lose Judge, they may make a run at Verlander. The Blue Jays and Giants are both teams that could make a strong run at Verlander. It only takes ""one" to compete against the Astros, but I think there will be 4-5 teams that are some degree of serious. We can also likely eliminate teams like the Rangers, who would make an offer, but Verlander is not likely to accept. He wants 300 wins and he wants to keep improving his legacy. He has said he plans to pitch until at least 45.
My gut is 50/50, but I think it is probably 55/45 we resign him. I guess what I would tell everyone is that the preference is to resign him, but everyone shouldn't be gutted if the Astros don't resign him. The money will be spent and the Astros have some holes to fill. The Astros will be fine either way.
Give me this lineup over JV next 2 years. I like my chances with Framber/Javier for game 1&2 against anyone.
Due to revenue from playoff success over the years (except for 2020), do you see Crane going over the luxury tax threshold anytime soon?
In order to get to the World Series... you have to win in the regular season and first few rounds of the post season. JV is 8-3 in those rounds and 61-19 in the regular season over 3.5 years in Houston. Dodgers have had 10 consecutive post season berths but 3 World Series (winning one). Houston may have had a real challenge on their hands if the Dodgers made it... and again you have to MAKE it to have a chance of WINNING it.
He has said he would. If you believe what was being said internally, he was willing to do it this past season but the right deal never came up. I am hoping he works out an extension with Javier or Valdez and Bregman. Tucker seems really set on going into free agency.
On the money being spent, I suspect Crane trusts JV more than most players, and might be willing to stretch budget slightly more to retain him than if the Astros don't. Shouldn't be a big deal ($5M or so maybe) either way as I think Astros are in a good position mostly needing bats at bat-first spots. I do think Contreras would be a game changer for the offense. I think Urquidy straight up for Contreras would have been a lot, though I may be over valuing Urquidy's upside. The Astros offense would likely vault back to Top 1-2 with him.
We absolutely must get a couple impact bats. I’d love Brantley (Even though injury + age makes him a bit of a ?) and Abreu. The WS game 6 line up was not good at all after Tucker. Maybe thats normal for ho-hum teams but the Astros, who intend to repeat, need more.
I’m glad we play in the AL and not the NL with how it looks the strengths of team is shaping up headed into 2023. NL strong.
Ya it’s pretty crazy that folks here are overwhelmingly ok w letting the reigning Cy Young winner walk over what? $5-$10m/yr of someone else’s money. Nevermind that he’s a core piece of this team, the clubhouse, and this entire golden era of Astros baseball. How many were ok letting him walk last year? IIRC a lot. And look how terrible that would’ve worked out. Looking at it purely from a roster construction/compensation perspective is beyond myopic. A. It isn’t our money. B. Crane has shown time and time again he’s willing to do what it takes to field a hyper competitive team. C. It completely ignores the emotional and personal component of what this era of Astros baseball has given us. The camaraderie, the resolve in the face of extreme adversary, the milestones/accomplishments still in front of this team. Dynasty, HOF caps, records, etc. Folks are willing to toss that aside so Crane can save a few million dollars a year? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. Granted it worked for Springer, Cole, Morton, Correa, etc. but we only had a shot at two of them. I want to look back at this team in 20 yrs and have them talked about as one of the greatest teams to ever do it. I want to see JV in the hall w an Astros cap. Let’s make it happen.
I agree 100% about the bottom of the lineup. One of the things I noticed in the playoffs is how important the hitters are who can extend at bats. Guys like Rizzo, McCormick, Realmuto, etc. I would love Rizzo instead of Abreu just for the fact that he’s a great fielder and seemed like he was in a 6+ pitch at bat nearly every plate appearance.
You are comparing apples to pears. Last year JV took a one year deal for $25M. 100% of us would accept that for 2023 for Verlander. Problem is Verlander just opted out of that deal. He's looking for 3 years and north of $100M. For a 40 y/o pitcher one year removed from Tommy John surgery, that's a tough pill to swallow. Couple that with a high caliber, 6-man starting rotation, all under 30 y/o, and you have to think about allocating our scarce financial resources towards areas of greater need... of which there are several.
Literally nobody has said that. We're possibly willing to let him walk so that money can be thrown at other offensive positions that seem to be a bigger hole than pitching. If Crane is willing to pony up money to address offense and Verlander then great. If it comes down to Verlander vs 2 huge offensive improvements at DH/1B, I would lean towards offense.
