2022-23 A Year of decisions for most of our roster

Interesting take. I agree with some of it.

Tate. If he can’t improve his shooting next season we really will have to move on. Silas has to stop playing him out of position. I don’t want to see him at the 4 anymore, and I want him coming off the bench. But I think Tate has earned one more year to improve his shooting. He is the heart of the team.

KJ Martin. Given the addition of Jabari and Eason, and the need to get Garuba some front court minutes, along with his trade request, I hope the rockets trade KJ. He still has a path to minutes off the bench because Eason will spend at least half the year in the G-league, but I think we should get some value for him and move on.

Nix. Now that we spent a first rounder on TyTy, the clock has started ticking on Nix. He’ll need to try to find some backup minutes in the guard rotation, but KPJ, Green and Christopher need to play as much as possible. I think minutes are gonna be hard to come by, but he’s gonna have to show the team that he’s a legit nba point guard with the limited minutes he does get.

should go without saying, but our 4 first rounders from last year need to play as much as possible, and we shouldnt be looking to trade any of them until we see their progress in year 2. I expect Eason and TyTy to spend a good deal of time in the G-league next year, so I don’t see any problem getting our 2021 class more playing time.

KPJ. He needs to continue to play big minutes, but he’s got to get through a full season without a major incident. Last year he had two significant on court incidents. If he can’t be a professional I think we’ll need to make a tough decision when he hits restricted free agency next year.

It’s time to trade EG. But the fact that we don’t have a pure 3 on the roster means he’s not really hurting the development of anyone with his minutes. My biggest concern is EG getting to the trade deadline healthy next year and getting lowballed like Miami did us with Oladipo. I think EG needs to be moved before the season starts, but it’s clear asset management is not Stone’s thing.

Lastly, Sengun should be close to untouchable, at least until we see what he can do with starters minutes next year.

 

I do not think there needs to be a decision made on Sengun next year. He played quite well and I see him only improve going forward. Also, he has shown he can be a great and willing passer and would only compliment Greens and other guards game rather than clogging the lane as you say. The team does not need to be completely guard-centric with their strategy.

On the other hand, Jabari and other young players have a lot more to prove than Sengun IMO.

 

I think Ty Ty & Gup is the future backup backcourt with nix being the odd man out unless he accepts being the 5th guard and getting PT when there’s an injury, foul trouble or blowout. KPJ’s future solely depends on this season as you would have to pay him $$ to start or be your 6th man, causing Ty Ty or Gup to be a starter which I think neither will be anytime soon as Gup is a 6th man TyTy is a perfect backup point. Tate is going to net us the most value as he’s older, more established and a glue guy that any contender would want for under $2m and possibly $9-12m in contract extensions as Matthews is shipped off with him in any deal. EG will be dealt before the season or deadline but I’m not expecting more than a salary dump and 2nd round pick or another young player. KMJ needs to develop a 3&D game but he is just like KPJ, both have to have great seasons to be apart of the team long term as KMJ wouldnt accept a lower role than what he already has had with us if eason outplays him or we find another wing to help. I think garuba will be like nix, the 5th big man that can play when there’s an injury, foul trouble or blowout as I don’t think he’s ready yet to play big minutes. Not to knock on their talents but I think Ty Ty and Gup are better players, and we will have better bigs on the roster from draft picks that may be better than garuba. Green & Jabari are the 1-2 options, but I think long term Sengun could be the 6th man as we could potentially get a top center in the draft over the next 2 seasons.

Long term:
???/TyTy/Nix
Green/Gup/Nix
???/Eason
Jabari/???/Garuba
???/Sengun/Garuba

I think the team will eventually need a 3&D starter at the 3 spot, a combo guard to play off green at the PG spot, a glue guy that can shoot behind jabari and a rim protecting center. Martin can turn into that 3&D starter, KPJ can turn into that combo guard, garuba can turn into that glue guy as his 3point shot isn’t bad and mo bamba may be the defending center but I think the team needs bigger fish or another top 3 pick to plug in at point or center for long term success.

 

I'd really like to see us target a young vet still on rookie deal in the 6'8" range to be a 3/4 off the bench that can knockdown open 3s and provide spacing for a group that lacks shooters (Garuba, Eason, Nix)

Someone like DeAndre Hunter or Rui Hachimura

I'd actually trade EGo for either
Not including Jgup I love his fit here
I'd do EGo + KJM for Hunter or Rui

 

1 sengun is going to be a 40% 3-point shooter

2 nix and tyty are going to both bypass kpjr at the point at some point. tyty is going to have to significantly outperform 29 to bypass nix.

3 the odd man out is ..... kpjr. he needs to play 3 or go. but we'll probably keep him at point to inflate his numbers and lose games.

4. the trade package should be ... kmjr tate matthews nwaba ego and ...possibly kpjr.

5 the CORE IS jalen alperen jabari.....we're not trying to find the core....that's the core.

 

Considering the amount of cap space will could crate for next summer I think we will end up holding on to a lot of these players and package them for some long term salary if we don't choose to use it on free agents.

The only players I consider movable to teams before the deadline are Tate, Gordon and KJM. The rest I think will be waived including Nix, Queen and Mathews. My attention is squarely on KPJ because he's either going to make or break his career this year.

Training camp will be a blood bath and full of competition. Players are going to be angry. I LOVE IT!

 

If we end up trading EG, we will need to bring in another vet. We would need to fill that "veteran leadership" role. I read somewhere that said he wouldn't mind staying in Houston but would likely have to extend him. Ideally you would want to free up minutes for the young guys but I'm kinda torn on whether it would be better to keep Gordon around as a mentor. The team is starting to get plenty of young talent but someone will have to show them how to win.

 

Remember not so long ago around this time... when we would all be taking about if D.Howard, Lebron, Melo, Bosh, LA or whatnot was coming over in free agency?

Yeah, me neither!

 

EG got Stockholm Syndrone

 

the Tate figure is hopfully within good reason. stone is doing a commendable job but real tests are on the horizon.

 

15-Man Roster:

Sengun/Garuba
Jabari/KJ/Tari
Tate/Mathews/Nwaba
Green/Christopher
KPJ/TyTy

2 spots to take back two expirings in an EG trade. 1 spot for a 2-way contract on a waiver claim (like Mathews last yr).

Waived:

Chriss
Boban
Burke
Brown
Nix

 

I like it. One change I'd make would be to keep Boban UNLESS one of the guys we get back from the EG deal is a vet big man. Just for mentorship and to fill the occasional minute so Segun isn't always playing at the 5(I think Sengun needs to play with a true rim protector long term)