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Rockets curiously poised for GSish offense style future?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Glendelicious, Jun 1, 2022.

  1. Glendelicious

    Glendelicious Member

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    I should be clear, I know I'm projecting the possibilities for a team of kids who just lost 62 games + an incoming rookie, in comparison to a dynasty with three hall of fame players. I'm talking style and approach.

    I was just listening to the latest Thinking Basketball podcast episode in which Ben Taylor, Dave DuFour, and J Kyle Mann reverentially discuss how Steph Curry dominates the game with his off-ball movement. That reminded me about how back in the day Larry Brown moved Allen Iverson to SG and ran him off screens. I was thinking, why couldn't Jalen Green play that way? Like AI, he'd catch the ball on the move and have the defense scrambling to catch up. And he's already come so far as a catch-and-shoot guy. I expect him to be a >36% three-point shooter—and could easily see peak seasons at or near 40%.

    Meanwhile, I don't know where to find the data, but I believe KPJ was one of the best in the NBA in 3s off the catch. (In fact, could I be remembering correctly that he was 2nd overall with a minimum of 200 shots?)

    So you get me, Green plays an AI + Steph, and KPJ (miscast as a primary playmaker) plays Klay Thompson.

    And who feeds them? Well, Draymond was 24, in his third season, before he approached Şengün's assist rate as a 19-year-old rookie. And Banchero and Chet are both very high upside passing bigs. Even Garuba impressed me a lot as a passer.

    I've been trying to figure out how Green maxes out as a superstar at his size if he doesn't become a top-notch ball-handler and passer—both of which I'm doubting—and how the Rockets might succeed without a great passing PG. I think a good passing backcourt and high-level passing frontcourt, with lots of movement off the ball from the two guards, like GS, is the way to go.

    Does that make sense?
     
  2. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    No

    however , if we manage to draft Jabari smith then we will be in a position to follow in GS’s footsteps as a jump shooting team
     
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  3. Spooner

    Spooner Member

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    Thank you. Exactly my sentiments. Glad we are seeing eye to eye on this. The best way to maximize Green and KPJ is off ball and having a playmaking forward. The rebuild is so early and there are infinite blueprints. A lot of CF posters are very smart, we just all have different ideas for how the team can function. That seems to take precedence over even the prospects themselves. It’s a beautiful thing to discuss. A lot of good ideas but I’m with you. It’s intriguing as hell, would put our guys in clear positions of strength and there is a clear blueprint here for success in the modern NBA. Great post.
     
  4. kpdark

    kpdark Member

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    Could also be what the Celtics are rn.

    This Finals(GS vs Celts) could be a good gauge/preview on what our young core of Green/Banchero could be at.
     
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  5. pmac

    pmac Contributing Member

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    I'm all for it - as soon as we get 2 of the best 5 shooters in the history of mankind to fuel that system.

    Let's just focus on playing hard the whole game and staying in front of our man first. Maybe even win more than 20 games...
     
  6. glimmertwins

    glimmertwins Member

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    Draymond did most of his damage getting the ball in situations where Curry had two defenders and Draymond was making quick passes to find the advantage while the rest of GS’s offense was trying to free up Klay or slipping screens to get easy rolls. That advantage only existed because defenses had to double Curry out to the timeline. That’s why Curry is so special because he forced the defense to extend coverage 40’+ from the hoop while the average defense only covers 24’. A team of long defenders can cover plays much easier in a 24’ radius vs a 40’ one….in other words - it wasn’t off ball play that created a juggernaut - it was having two accurate shooters with range between 30-40’ that made that off ball play particularly deadly.

    …so my advice to Houston is really work on Green’s deep ball. He seems like he could extend his range and with his quickness he would be deadly out there but simply running Green off screens isn’t going to unlock beast mode by itself.

    And oh yeah - everyone has to play defense!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  7. cheke64

    cheke64 Member

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    Kpj lacks the fast twitch neurons to react fast and he's ball dominant
     
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  8. BowlingBaller

    BowlingBaller Member

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    The biggest hurdle IMO is lack of ref support.
     
  9. Glendelicious

    Glendelicious Member

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    That's why I brought up Iverson. You don't have to be one of the best shooters in history to utilize off-the-ball movement. Green is so fast that if he catches the ball on the run, he'll collapse the defense and create openings for shooters around him—similar to pick and rolls. It's utilizing Green's speed to give him "gravity." And the separation he'll get from his speed and screens will help him as a shooter and accelerate his court vision development.

    And while Şengün is a passing savant, you still can't expect too much of him at this age, which is why Kyle Anderson is my top FA pick. I'd go as high as full mid-level 4 years for him if necessary. That's a guy whose passing and screening will help the youngsters develop.
     
  10. KingSamJack

    KingSamJack Member

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    Green works out with Curry, and I think silas is also coaching green on how to be effective without the ball like Curry, I remember so many times thought the season in game threads we would want green to be ball dominant and let him Create while everyone else clear out or set a pick... But curry is dangerous because all of his off ball movement to try to get open. If green can be dangerous off the ball like Curry and Banchero can become our playmaking forward.. we might have something.
     
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  11. ico4498

    ico4498 Member
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    LOL!
     
  12. Glendelicious

    Glendelicious Member

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    Oh does he? That's exciting. I hadn't heard that. This isn't one of those "I'm going to spend three weeks with Dream and learn all his post moves," things. This is about habit-building and philosophy and willingness. Love to hear that he's spending time with Curry.

    And as for what KPJ can't do, here's what he can do: shoot better off the catch than most players in the game:

    https://www.nba.com/stats/players/c...SeasonType=Regular Season&CF=MIN*G*20:GP*G*40

    This is all players over 20 mpg who played 40 games. It's not a huge sample size because he had the ball in his hands so often. But even if he's not the best as this says, we can certainly say that KPJ is already an elite catch and shoot.

    And DARKO likes him too. The career longevity projection is DARKO's way of projecting career success.
    https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/DARKO//
     
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  13. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    wishful thinking

    Curry and Klay is the best shooting backcourt in NBA history

    GS is full of high BBIQ players

    KPJr is not a high BBIQ player, and he plays more like a bootleg James Harden starter kit

    GS is also elite defensively, but defense always gets glossed over on here…a Paolo-Sengun frontcourt will be absolute cheeks defensively

    GS was ranked 2nd defensively this year, and they have been elite throughout their championship runs

    if GS was some average-below average defense, we wouldn’t even be talking about them
     
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  14. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    I like your post a lot bro.

    But I do want to say one thing, we should make a system that fits our players the best, not the other way around. I hate how GS has led people to believe you can only play basketball one way, its not true.

    There are multiple ways to win in this league.

    When Curry is gone, Kerr wont be seen as that good because the fact is his system ONLY works because of Curry.
     
  15. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    Boston was 14th in assist percentage and 6th in Isolation frequency, and yet here they are in the finals

    Milwaukee was 3rd in ISO frequency and 25th in assist percentage last year

    people need to stop acting like there’s only 1 way, or 1 right way, to play offense

    Boston is the #1 rated defense, GS is 2nd

    GS was ranked 16th offensively and Boston 9th

    Rockets were highly ranked offensively all those years with Harden, but almost made it to the finals the year we were elite defensively

    so it doesn’t matter to me if you’re running around like the 02 Kings or playing ISO ball, if you’re not also elite defensively you’re most likely going home unless you’re something ridiculous like last year’s Nets when healthy

    it is hard to replicate GS when u do not have that level of shooting or BBIQ…those off-ball actions don’t hit the same when it’s not Curry or Klay running it
     
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  16. Rudyc281

    Rudyc281 Member

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  17. Glendelicious

    Glendelicious Member

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    Yeah, finding a system that fits is what I was thinking about. I never thought about GS until today. It's that I've been very much a Green hopeful-but-skeptic, because he's 1 inch taller and 12 lbs heavier than Ja (check nba.com and remember they now certify heights at the end of training camp), not long, and doesn't project to be a high-level ball-handler or passer. (Maybe! I'm hopeful, but the "He's improved from being awful at the beginning of his rookie year!" protests that I hear don't portend an elite lead ball-handler future.) And KPJ certainly isn't a natural court vision guy. So I was wondering how these guys might develop into an effective playoff backcourt. And GS is basically the only upper-tier offense in the league over the last decade that doesn't rely on a high usage primary ball-handler with high-level court vision.

    And it just so happens that they drafted a PF/C who posted a 19% assist rate as a 19-year-old, they're likely to draft a PF (Banchero) who had a 17.5% assist rate in his freshman year in college as a #1 option. I'm not really well-versed in different offenses. GS is the only one I know of that's modern where a lot of it features big men passing out of the high post and short roll. So maybe they're not the right model? But unless we draft Scoot Henderson next year, a no-PG system seems like a good bet for the future.
     
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  18. KingSamJack

    KingSamJack Member

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  19. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title
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    That's on 1.9 attempts per game. It's just noise. So no, we absolutely cannot say he is already elite and catch and shoot.
     
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  20. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    for one I think you’re underselling Green a fair amount. The improvements he made were indeed leaps and bounds. He was SO SO good the last ten games. 25/4/4 basically over 10 games with really good efficiency, low turnovers … he had just turned 20. I understand why you’re more hyper focused on stuff like “elite” handles. But that’s because of the leagues infatuation with PGs or “do everything” heliocentric guys (which always ultimately fails). JG is not that - his crazy curling is a game more like Kobe. And he made crazy strides that way the last 30 games.

    for two, that being the case, and your comment about KPJ being true, and the idea of Sengun and Paolo…

    it’s not GSW offense exactly but it absolutely SHOULD be a fun, exciting, forward passing heavy, mix of movement, PNR and lots of cutting. So not exactly the same but the overall premise absolutely makes sense.

    my heavy concern is the coaching. Not sure they are capable of implementing it. I still have ZERO clue after 2 years of Silas what his idea of offense is. Sidebar - same on defense. But ignoring coaching… the excitement among Rockets fans with Paolo (or the other two guys) is there is starting to be a solid collection of talent, hopefully, that some competent coach could mold into a good team.
     
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