This is speculation. IF Putin invades more countries IF Putin attacks NATO IF the generals overthrow Putin I know one thing for certain, the Generals may not be behind Putins' invasion into Ukraine 100%, but if we attack Russia, its very likely the generals will rally around Putin as it not longer is about him but rather about the defense of mother Russia. Just as NATO and the world can rally, so can the Russians if given the reason to. And the reality is that the more war Russia makes, the weaker it will be and the easier it will be to best them. Time is on our side, not Russia's.
"I alone can end the war"... Trump would love for the US to be in a war with Russia that gets very unpopular and he can run as the messiah to bring about the end of WW3. I can't think of anything worse for both a Republican controlled Congress and potentially a re-elected Trump to inherit.
Yes and it will likely take thousands of jets to get air superiority and an effective no-flyzone over Ukraine. I don't know what NATO forces readiness is but I doubt that could be implemented quickly.
I think it is dangerous just to assume that Putin's support among the military is so weak that generals won't follow orders or that they will overthrow them. If you look at Russian history there have been awful leaders that Russians have still rallied around when it came to war. The most obvious example is Stalin who was much worse than Putin. In WWII many Russians including generals knew that Stalin was terrible but still stayed loyal. It also didn't help that Stalin had purged much of the officer corps and my understanding is that Putin has also been purging the officer corp and in his own government of people who doesn't think are sufficiently loyal. The point was that the Russians never turned on Stalin even though most of the Nazi propaganda was focussed on trying to get them to turn against Stalin. One part that many don't know is why Putin uses rhetoric like de-Nazification in his justification of the invasion is that many Russians felt the Ukrainians weren't that loyal to Soviet Union and gave up Ukraine too easily in WWII. In the history of Russia they have often been very bad fighting offensive wars and have taken devastating defeats early on in many of their wars. When it comes to defending Russia itself though they've been willing to go all in. For example the movie Enemy of the Gates isn't very historically accurate but that Russians were willing to send waves of poorly armed soldiers against vastly better armed and technically superior German forces is true. Obviously present day Russians aren't the ones who fought the battle of Stalingrad and NATO isn't the Third Reich. We still don't know though how Russians will respond once NATO forces start killing Russian soldiers and pilots. Or if a NATO missile lands on actual Russian soil.
Both Sweden and Finland are part of the EU which has a defense pact in the case that any country is the victim of outside aggression. The EU could begin fortifying Finland now which is a very defensible country given its terrain features. They don't really have airpower but that is where the EU could come in. I think it would be wise for the EU to begin defense preparations for Finland. Moldova is a tiny landlocked nation that already has Russian forces in its disputed territory similar to Ukraine. Will it be next? It shares no border with Russia so Russia would have to have all of Ukraine. I think Georgia would likely be the next target. After that Putin doesn't have a lot of targets left. I don't think he will attack NATO because that will be all out war. I don't think he will attack Finland because that is likely a European war and he has worse chances of success than he did in Ukraine. There's a much longer trip for an army to Helsinki from Russia and the terrain is not easy. There's a lot of bridges the Fins can take out to potentially slow their advance to if you look at a map of Finland.
I understand that NATO nations are the line in the sand. It's a valid point. My issue with that is that is kind of arbitrary to base the survival of a nation on when there is clear cut black and white case of good guys and bad guys in this current invasion. Also, once NATO is attacked Russia knows the response will be full on war. This way has a chance of avoiding that while still helping Ukraine. If we use the no-fly zone, Russia doesn't know what our response will be. They don't know how far we are willing to go. They only know that we aren't willing to roll over. It is a chance to hopefully avoid a larger war while still helping Ukraine. I understand that there is a very real chance it could escalate. If it does, I feel we just reached the inevitable conclusion sooner rather than later. We know what Putin will do if we don't step up. We don't know what will happen if we do. Trust me. If I had my way, no nation would need an army. But people don't have the will to defeat other armies without a military and weapons, so that's purely theoretical.
If Russia has 30 migs waiting, I wouldn't send up 20 allied aircraft to establish air superiority. I would use a larger deployment. The point of establishing a no-fly zone isn't to shoot and eliminate all of Russian planes. The question is what would Russia do. Are they willing to expend their air fleet on this conflict and have it weakened for later and make themselves more vulnerable? Maybe, but at least they have to consider it and might decide to find a way out. If not, then we will make them weaker and less able to invade again, win in Ukraine or take over the next nation.
Sure, let's say you send 50, then Russia can increase to 50 as well. Or 100. It is easier for them to adjust then it will be for the US which has to project air power where Russia does not. If you are wondering whether Russia would not use its forces to challenge a no-fly zone, I don't believe you understand Putin. To me, it's a certainty that he would. Nothing more would rally sentiment towards him both domestically and amongst his allies than a war with NATO where he can claim to be on the defensive.
It is speculation based on the data that Putin has said Russia has claim to other nations, has already shown a willingness to use military invasion of sovereign nations to obtain the claimed areas and has a real concern about NATO which we can leverage to our advantage. Continued invasion based on his history is more likely than him just deciding he's finished without accomplishing his goal even though no Western nations showed they were willing to stand up to Russia. It's wishful thinking.
Where I would counter that the history does not demonstrate what you think it does. In every case, the origin of the conflict has been a group of people who are pro-Russian within the state. This was the case with Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. It's no coincidence that these are the three nations Russia has had conflict with under Putin. Finland doesn't have that. Putin would have to build up military forces and just straight out invade. His MO has always been to first try to weaken a country from the inside through internal conflict and then use that as the pretext to go to war. I don't see that as happening with Finland or the Baltic countries. So I think it's possible he could invade Georgia, but it's not wishful think that he doesn't. There's lots of reasons that he might not. Having two fronts for his military is not ideal. Keep in mind the more he invades the weaker the country becomes militarily and the more susceptible it comes to attack, and the more financially vulnerable it becomes as well. This is why I favor patience. We are not just "doing nothing" - we are using sanctions, lethal and non-lethal aid as well as shoring up our defenses. That is an active response to current events. Regardless of whether Putin invades Georgia next, waiting is the right move today.
Not at all. Reading and following Russian propaganda for years now, it's standard operation for decades. Trump and his minions learn from them quite well also. Up is down. Down is up. Left is right. Right is left. Trump's call with Zelensky was a perfect call.
Why would it fail? Turkey, France, Germany, UK and others all have pretty substantial air capabilities.
It's the location that would make it extremely difficult with russian air space right next door plus surface-to-air missiles all around the border
