Probably a bad look to quote your own posts, but I think the last 5 games only reinforce my impression that how Altuve goes, the Astros go.
With his current trajectory, Altuve should make it. He has a shot at 3000 hits if he plays until he is 40 like Biggio. He will be top 2 in playoff homeruns, top 5 in Playoff RBI's and total bases assuming me make it to the playoffs two more times.
It remains to be seen how the cheating scandal will affect his chances. I am thinking that in 10 years no one will care, especially since the deeper evidence indicates Altuve didn’t participate or benefit individually. If he wins another ring, plays in 2 more WS, has another MVP level season, reaches 3000 hits, or even just stays a good player for 5 more years, I think he’s in. But if he starts rapidly declining in the next couple years he may be on the outside looking in. Hard for the #2 all time playoff HR leader to not be in, especially with multiple rings, 50+ war, and an MVP award. If I had to, I would bet against him reaching 3000 hits but I would bet even odds on him ending up in the hall of fame.
Almost no HOF voter will care. The younger voters are even accepting of steroid users. It may keep him from being unanimous, but seems a lock to be a first ballot player, assuming he doesn't fall off a cliff.
It should also be noted that Altuve wasn’t really a participant in the scandal. Opposing fans don’t give a **** and announcers never bring it up but voters will/should know. We have all the bangs, Altuve didn’t use them and his teammates corroborate that.
If we win 2 more world series it will be forgotten. But think most here are underestimating how big the news story was. Literally, all of MLB hated us. People who don't follow baseball hate us. Altuve was the face of the scandal. That's only forgotten if we win the series and wash it out. People still hate Pete Rose for basically nothing. Altuve's career won't be enough. He has to win.
Health is huge factor though... Garciaparra after year 12... Pedroia after year 11... Altuve is in year 11...
Wow, just looked at garciaparra's stats. He and altuve are neck and neck in games played and hits right now. Nomar had a pretty nice career overall.
A bit off topic, but amazing how the leagues change from era to era. Numbers from the 90s-00s on offense seem alien to anything from the last 5 years. Imagine a .370 hitter in todays league? As for Altuve, I doubt he goes full Garciaparra. Nomar fell off a cliff in the WAR department by 30. Altuve cranked out another 4.5 WAR season. The age of Jose hitting .330+ is long gone, but .275 with 30 HR at second base with plus defense is a 4+ win player for the near future. 2020 hurts his overall numbers, and I doubt he reaches 3000 hits unless he plays 'till he's 40. His "old man" hitting profile ages well unless his power falls off a cliff. Out of the desirable traits for a hitter: patience, strength, bat speed and reflexes, the first two last much longer than the latter two. Given a retirement age of 37, Altuve has to average about 3 WAR per season over the next 6 years to reach 60 WAR. That alongside an MVP, a ring or two, and an outside shot of finishing with 30+ playoff home runs should lock him in for the hall.
I will be very surprised if Altuve is an above average player past 36 or even still playing at 38. I may be wrong (and hope I am) but I think his production will decline rapidly once he starts to lose power and speed, which given his body type will probably happen by his mid 30s. He has an elite contact ability and appears to work very hard and take care of his body but I think that will only help last into the 34-36 range rather than his late 30s. Still, 50+ war and multiple rings should make him a lock regardless of what he does at the tail end of his career.
I don't know about opposing fans not a *****. Altuve seems to get a lion share of boos and I've heard firsthand from fans of other teams calling him a "cheater". On KFAN MN Sports Talk a commentator even called him a "cheating midget" on air the day after Game 4 of the ALDS.
Nomar's is actually a sad case...Injuries cost him ultimately a great career that he finished in Oakland for one year. The worst part is 2004 when the Red Sox traded him to the Cubs. The Red Sox ended up winning it all in 2004 without Nomar. He still got a ring but just not the same,
