Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory 10a Issued: 04:00 PM CDT Sunday August 15, 2021 Current Location: 16.1N, 68.2W Geographic Reference: 200 Miles SE of Santo Domingo, DR Movement: Northwest at 11 mph Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph Organizational Trend: Weakening Forecast Confidence: Below Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1012 mb Our Forecast The National Hurricane Center has downgraded Grace to a tropical depression, though it has a very poorly-defined circulation. There are no changes to our forecast track. In fact, the National Hurricane Center has adjusted their track close to ours. There's a good chance we will be adjusting our track farther south in future advisories.
Tropical Depression Grace Advisory 11 Valid: 09:00 PM CDT Sunday August 15, 2021 Current Location: 16.8N, 68.6W Geographic Reference: 145 Miles SE of Santo Domingo, DR Movement: West at 14 mph Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 4 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 90 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Below Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1011 mb Key Points 1. Grace is reorganizing, but remains weak. 2. Grace's precise track and intensity remain uncertain due to its poorly-defined center. 3. If Grace survives passing Cuba, then it could become a tropical storm threat to northeast Mexico or possibly south Texas by Saturday. Our Forecast Reports from a reconnaissance plane investigating Grace indicate that there is a weak circulation center that has reformed with Grace this evening and that winds may be nearing tropical storm force. However, the lowest central pressure has not fallen from earlier and it remains poorly organized. Thunderstorms are increasing with Grace near the new center and if there is any additional organization tonight, it is possible that Grace may be upgraded back to tropical storm status by the National Hurricane Center as it approaches the coast of Hispaniola tonight into Monday morning. Regardless of classification, the primary impact from Grace will be heavy rainfall across much of the Greater Antilles through the middle of this upcoming week. Grace's long-term track and intensity remain quite unclear. There has been a slight southward shift of the track based on poor organization of the depression. In addition, we are showing a faster progression of Grace across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico since it will be a weaker system as indicated by most of our guidance. Grace is likely to track south of the Dominican Republic, over southern Haiti, then near the coast of southern Cuba before reaching the southern Gulf Wednesday evening. Most model guidance has Grace as an open wave for the next 3-4 days. Once in the southern Gulf of Mexico, there is a chance that Grace could reorganize and become a tropical storm on Thursday as it tracks westward, then moves ashore northeastern Mexico late Saturday. With high pressure building across the U.S. Gulf Coast Thursday and Friday, it does not appear as though Grace will become a threat to the northern Gulf Coast. Of course, the long-range track remains quite uncertain, depending upon if and when Grace develops a well-defined circulation center. If Grace remains weaker than we are predicting, then we may be adjusting the track even farther to the south. Possible Impacts Inland Puerto Rico: Some heavy squalls could produce flooding through early Monday. Wind gusts to tropical storm strength may occur in squalls, but sustained winds will be well below tropical storm strength. Power outages are possible in the higher wind gusts. Hispaniola: Flash flooding and mudslides are expected. Power outages are also expected tonight and Monday.
"Things are going to start happening to me now." ---Steve Martin's Navin Johnson Plus I'll never get to see Bacalar because over half of the lagoon has gone brown or green from last year's rains that also brought in pesticides and other trash and whatnot. Go look at what it was before. Paradise. I guess I should be glad if it doesn't come here. We've been Harvey free for a while.
I'm a slacker. Bobbytheholic (!!) has 14,000 likes, in eight years, so I really need to Troll. Hard. Trolls beget trolls.
If you keep it up, you can grow up to be like Bobby. Anything is possible on CF. The only limitation is your mind my friend.
Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 04:56 AM CDT Monday August 16, 2021 Fred Tropical Storm Fred is centered about 170 miles to the south of Panama City, Florida. It is moving to the north at 8 mph. Fred will likely move into the Florida Panhandle by this evening. Fred will remain a lopsided storm with most of the strong winds and heavy rainfall occurring to the east of the center. Grace Tropical Depression Grace is located 70 miles to the south of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic and moving to the west at 15 mph. Grace will move into southern Haiti late this afternoon, then pass near southern Cuba on Tuesday. Grace will become a tropical storm again over the northwest Caribbean by early Wednesday and is predicted to move across the northern Yucatan into the southern Gulf of Mexico Thursday morning. Grace could strengthen to a strong tropical storm over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday before moving into eastern Mexico to the north of Tampico. Tropical Depression Eight Tropical Depression Eight is centered about 100 miles east of Bermuda and moving south at 5 mph. Maximum winds are near 35 mph. Eight could become a tropical storm later today. Tropical Depression Eight is forecast to make a clockwise loop around Bermuda this week and may pass close enough to Bermuda to produce tropical storm force wind gusts. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 29 is located to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands along 29W and is moving west at 12 mph. There is a 0 percent chance of development over the next 48 hours, then a 10 percent chance of development over the next 7 days as it moves across the Atlantic. ************************************************************ Current Location: 17.7N, 71.5W Geographic Reference: 120 Miles Southwest of Santo Domingo, DR Movement: West at 14 mph Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 4 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 85 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing Slowly Forecast Confidence: Below Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1008 mb Key Points 1. Another slight southward shift of the track has been made. 2. It is becoming more likely Grace will intensify to at least a moderate tropical storm over the northwest Caribbean. 3. Expected impacts are increasing for the Cayman Islands, Yucatan Peninsula, and portions of eastern Mexico. Our Forecast Thunderstorms are increasing east and southeast of the center this morning and the overall organizational structure of Grace is improving. A reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating Grace and they are finding tropical storm force winds at flight level. Based on this data there is an increasing chance Grace maybe upgraded back to a tropical storm later this morning or afternoon. Regardless of classification, the primary impact from Grace will be heavy rainfall across Hispaniola and portions of Cuba today through early Wednesday. The updated track forecast was again shifted southward, but this time only slightly and at a faster forward speed. Grace is forecast to move slightly north of due west across the northwest Caribbean Sea and southwest Gulf this weekend into the weekend on the south side of a large area of building high pressure across the northern Gulf Coast and northern Gulf of Mexico. Since we are now predicting Grace will track more south of Cuba, it is becoming more likely that Grace will spend more time over water and strengthen to a moderate to strong tropical storm over the northwest Caribbean on Wednesday before it moves into the northern Yucatan Peninsula early Thursday. This results in increasing impacts for the Cayman Islands on Tuesday into Wednesday, then the Yucatan Peninsula later Wednesday into Thursday. Afterward, it will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico Thursday where it will track west-northwest to westward and could intensify to near hurricane strength by Saturday morning, then move into the coast of eastern Mexico just to the north of Tampico during the day on Saturday. The updated track results in all of the impacts from Grace remaining south of the northwest Gulf production leases. However, it places the outer squalls of Grace across northern portions of the Bay of Campeche. Possible Impacts Inland Hispaniola: Flash flooding and mudslides are expected through Tuesday. Power outages are also expected through tonight. Jamaica: Localized flooding will be possible Tuesday. Cayman Islands / Cuba: Flooding will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday. Power outages are also possible in any wind gusts in squalls. Yucatan Peninsula: Some heavy squalls could produce flooding later Wednesday into Thursday. Wind gusts to tropical storm strength may occur in squalls, but sustained winds will be below tropical storm strength except for the northern coast of the Yucatan. Power outages are possible in the higher wind gusts.
What became Harvey was a tropical depression that trundled across the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche. Over open water between Mexico and Texas it was forecast to become a Cat 1. I remember Frank Billingsley looking worried, trying not to say, "I think they're off on this one." Just saying they could be spot on with Grace or underestimating what that warm Gulf water will do.
These guys aren’t worried: Tropical Storm Grace Advisory 16 Valid: 03:00 AM CDT Tuesday August 17, 2021 Because this storm is no longer a potential threat to your company's area of concern, this is the final advisory that you will receive via email. Current Location: 17.8N, 75.0W Geographic Reference: 120 Miles east of Kingston, Jamaica Movement: West at 16 mph Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 45 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 100 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing Forecast Confidence: Below Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1005 mb Key Points 1. The forecast track was adjusted slightly southward once the storm moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. 2. Grace is now a tropical storm again. It is forecast to become a hurricane in the Bay of Campeche. 3. Expected impacts are increasing for the Cayman Islands, Yucatan Peninsula, and portions of eastern Mexico. Our Forecast An Air Force Reconnaissance plane has been investigating the system tonight and found that it has strengthened. Therefore, it has been upgraded to a tropical storm by the National Hurricane Center. Grace is forecast to turn to the west-northwest in between Jamaica and Cuba and toward the Yucatan Peninsula from today through Wednesday. It is forecast to gradually strengthen during this time period. Grace then moves inland into the Yucatan Peninsula as a 60 mph system on Wednesday night. It is then forecast to weaken some as it crosses the Yucatan before emerging into the Bay of Campeche by Thursday afternoon. Grace is then forecast to progress in a west to west-southwesterly direction across the Bay of Campeche as a ridge of high pressure builds to the north of the area. The environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable across the Bay of Campeche and we expect the system to strengthen into a hurricane before pushing inland to the south of Tampico by early on Saturday morning. It then weakens quickly over land before becoming a remnant area of low pressure by early on Sunday morning. Possible Impacts Inland Haiti: Flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue this morning. Jamaica: Localized flooding will be possible today. Power outages will also be possible in response to tropical storm force winds across the island today. Cayman Islands / Cuba: Flooding will be possible from today into Wednesday. Power outages are also possible in any wind gusts in squalls. Yucatan Peninsula: Some heavy squalls could produce flooding from late Wednesday through Thursday. Power outages are likely near the coast and across inland areas in heavy squalls. Mexico (Tampico to Veracruz) : Flooding will be possible in any heavy squalls from late Friday through Saturday night and that could cause some mudslides. Power outages are likely near where the center makes landfall early on Saturday morning. Storm surge is also forecast from late Friday into Friday night which could lead to some damage.
