According to Fangraphs prospect guys this offseason, they had the defensive limitation guys much higher rated. They showed their lists to their contacts in the industry and almost universally, they were told they rated defensive limitation guys too highly. I think Fangraphs has some good prospect guys. I think their main weakness is they like toolsy lower level guys too much versus guys that can rake in the upper levels (specifically guys that can rake and don't miss many pitches in the zone). So while Fangraphs likely has some bias against guys that only hit, I think it reflects the biases of a lot of MLB front offices.
While fangraphs is better than most trade publications, their lists are still often outdated. Part of it is that they have a single list, when really every organization has variations and different rankings. For example I know that even as of last year, the White Sox value chart was vastly different than the Astros.
I wouldn’t say it’s a weakness relative to other orgs. But it’s a weakness relative to other positions in Houston’s farm (outfield and pitching). Which infielders currently in the system do you think will be decent everyday major leaguers? Outside of Nova, who is still in extended, I wouldn’t project any of them to be. There are lots of guys with solid utility projections (Rojas, Arauz, Pena, Toro, maybe Duarte, Santana, E Valdez, and Carrasco), and hopefully some of those exceed that, but there are no infielders in the system that we should currently expect to see on any 2020 Top 100 lists.
SS. Can never have too many, and Freudis Nova is really the only one with a high ceiling that seems reachable, but he's still in SS ball.
I think Beer will be plenty adequate in LF, at least thru his 20’s. I don’t think players like Beer (advanced college corner bats) can be really evaluated until AA. If he replicates his current performance in Corpus over the second half of the season, I will be buying him as a future everyday LF and would expect him to be ranked at the back half of most Top 100 lists. For now I’m slightly concerned about the lower than ideal walk rate but not enough to downgrade him. He is ready to move up.
Yep...and looking at the Astros minor leagues, catching is the biggest weakness followed by infield. What you said was correct.
It appears that there a quite a few guys at High A who are ready to move up, but there are no obvious moves that would open up the spots. Adams, Shaver, De La Cruz, Meyers, and Beer all should be in AA based on age, performance, and high A experience. I guess this could be the series of forthcoming moves: Those 5 guys to Corpus. Wrenn, McCormick, Quintana, and Goetzman to Round Rock; Matijevic is suspended to there’s your 5 spots in AA. Reed, Ritchie, and Ferguson traded for a bag of balls or released. Alvarez to Houston. Kemp traded for a lotto prospect to make room for Alvarez (White plays 1B, Gurriel to the bench, Alvarez is the DH). Schreiber, LaCroix, and 3 of the extra college draftee non-prospects (Hensley, Dawson, Costes) to High A. Ramiro Rodriguez, Luis Santana, Juan Pineda, and Juan Paulino to QC.
I agree with your points. It isn't that Beer doesn't have flags (he does), it is more that sometimes people take for granted what a player can do. In the case of Beer, he has hit at an elite level everywhere he has been since he was a child. He has always worked counts and swung at strikes. Is that a guarantee that he will replicate it at the big league? No, it isn't but it is gives him a real shot. As far as the walks go, he drew a lot in college and I suspect his walks will go up over time based on his track record (nothing is guaranteed, Yuli used to walk too). Right now his walks are not THAT bad, he would likely get 60-70 over a full season at his current pace. He reminds me a bit of Jeff Kent in his approach. He has good strike zone judgment, but is going to swing at strikes.
Nick Hernandez, the Astros' 8th-round pick out of UH in 2016, made his first appearance since undergoing Tommy John surgery in the 2017-18 offseason. He struck out one over 1.2 perfect innings for Fayetteville.
Going to start off by saying this is a bit random but it's regarding Yordan so I'm putting it here. 15+ years ago I used to collect baseball cards and was really into it, but as I got older and the cards began to get more and more ridiculous (prices are insane), I stopped altogether. At the end of March, I moved into a new house, and while I was boxing things up, I found my old shoe box full of cards. Long story short I ended up selling all of them on Ebay except for a select few that I thought were cool (mainly Astros players). In order for me to be able to figure out what they were worth I had to do some research and ended up going down a rabbit hole looking at all the new releases, etc. that they're putting out these days. Anyhow, I decided to take some of the money from the cards I sold and used it to buy 5 different Yordan Alvarez rookie autos - 4 of which I purchased for between $5-$15. I bought all of these during the 1st week of April. Fast forward to today, all of the cards have appreciated in value ~1000%, which is insane because it's only been a month. While I doubt anyone really cares, just thought it was interesting as it clearly shows it's not just us Astros fans who are hyping up Yordan. Looks like there are a lot of people looking forward to his call up and I'd venture to guess he'll be the most hyped Astros call up since Correa.
Nice little write up about Whitley and why not to be concerned about his bad start... Worried about Forrest Whitley? Don't be.
Price may be high for Fisher. He's still go serious upside and if I was San Fran, I'd be all over him. i agree
It's getting insane, I would bet he would have already been called up on every other potential playoff team...especially in the AL where there's the DH spot if he's that big of a butcher in the field. I'm not really arguing that we're wrong for not calling him up already...it's just awesome our roster/lineup is so deep. I wonder what Kemp and White are thinking assuming they see what he's doing right now in AAA?
They should IL Altuve to rest his knee, put Bregman or Yuli at second, White at first and Yordan at DH and see how it goes for ten days.